Tornadoes and Hail in Texas, March 16, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
157 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 142 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023/
/Rest of Today through Friday/

A cold front currently resides from Central Oklahoma into the
Texas Panhandle with scattered showers and thunderstorms, a couple
severe, located along the frontal boundary. Some clearing can be
observed on satellite imagery across our western zones where
temperatures have now rose into the upper 70s and low 80s. A weak
center of surface low pressure has developed along the Red River
Valley west of Wichita Falls, Texas with a dryline extending
southward into west-central Texas. This dryline will continue
pushing east toward the Highway 281 corridor this afternoon as the
cold front rapidly progresses southward into North Texas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been observed across the
eastern half of the CWA this morning with a few reports of sub-
severe hail. Additional development is possible across our east
and southeast this afternoon and may pose an isolated severe risk.
A passing shortwave currently located over the Texas Panhandle
will help provide additional lift for thunderstorm development
across our area this afternoon into this evening.

Isolated supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop in the
vicinity of the triple point, along the cold front, and southward
along the dryline later this afternoon, generally after 3-4PM.
Large hail will be the primary threat with these initial storms
with 50-60 kts of effective shear, SBCAPE ~2000-3000 J/kg and
steep mid-level lapse rates. Hail greater than golf-ball size will
be possible in the strongest storms. Decent 0-3km CAPE and low-
level SRH >150 m2/s2 will allow for a low end tornado threat.
Current thinking is that the greatest risk for large hail and a
couple tornadoes will take place along/east of Highway 281 and
along/north of I-20 from 3PM-8PM. Recent high-res guidance has
struggled to place the cold front today, with the cold front
progressing a bit quicker than originally thought. There is
potential that the cold front pushes through North Texas rather
quickly, undercutting any existing storms and limiting the overall
severe weather threat. Elevated severe storms capable of large
hail will still be a potential hazard in this scenario.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to grow upscale into a line of
thunderstorms later this evening and push southward across the CWA
into tonight. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard in
any portions of the line that are able to keep up with the cold
front. The cold front should push into our Central Texas counties
by 8-9PM and push south of the CWA by 12-1AM. Lingering showers
and thunderstorms, non-severe, will be possible across Central
Texas and the Brazos Valley into Friday morning. A much cooler and
drier airmass will filter into the region behind the frontal
boundary with strong north-northwesterly post-frontal winds of
20-30 mph gusting to 40-45 mph at times later this evening into
Friday morning. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire
CWA from 5PM this evening through 10AM Friday morning.
Temperatures will fall into the mid 30s to low 40s across the area
tonight behind the front with below-average afternoon highs in
the 50s expected on Friday.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Only minor adjustments were made with this forecast update and the
discussion below remains on track. Cloud cover Friday night will
inhibit some areas from dropping to/below freezing. Areas near
and north of I-20 are still the most likely to experience low
temperatures below freezing each night through the weekend.
Otherwise, low (20-30%) rain chances arrive Monday, with periodic
low rain chances through the rest of the week. Temperatures return
to near or slightly above normal by Wednesday.

Gordon

Previous Discussion:
/Friday Night through Wednesday/

A period of well below normal temperatures and sporadic low rain
chances will prevail through the early part of next week behind
today's strong cold front. Friday night will be the coldest night
in a while with temperatures likely dropping to near or just below
freezing to the west and north of the Metroplex. Some patchy frost
will also be possible early Saturday morning. An increase in high
cloud cover late Friday night into Saturday will likely prevent
temperatures from falling further, but these clouds will thin out
during the day Saturday and another cold night is expected with
temperatures falling to below freezing along the Red River
Saturday night.

An upstream shortwave will become sheared apart as it spreads into
the Plains on Monday. Prior to this though, modest moisture return
across parts of Central and West Texas will result in an increase
in low cloud cover, mainly across our western counties. As large
scale lift increases Sunday night into Monday, we could see some
light rain develop across the region. Global ensembles have backed
off on this potential to some degree, so we'll generally limit
PoPs to 20-30%. The increased cloud cover will hold high temps
down into the upper 40s and lower 50s for Monday afternoon.

A much stronger system will move into California on Tuesday and
will be responsible for a rapid low level moisture return into the
Plains starting Tuesday morning. This will also support a rapid
warmup through the middle and latter part of next week. Morning
cloud cover will give way to partly sunny skies Tue/Wed afternoons
with temps warming back into the mid/upper 70s by Wednesday. This
system will eventually kick out into the Central Plains late next
week and likely support another severe weather episode in the
Thu/Fri timeframe.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1248 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023/
/18Z TAFs/

MVFR/IFR cigs ~800-1200 ft will persist into early this afternoon
with periods of VFR expected by late this afternoon into this
evening. Rain showers are currently pushing east of the D10
airspace. Southerly winds of 15-20 kts gusting to 30 kts will
take on a more southwesterly component ahead of a cold front later
this afternoon, potentially leading to some crosswind issues.

Initial isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop later this
afternoon across North Texas, generally after 21Z, as a cold
front pushes into North Texas. Some of these storms could become
severe. These isolated thunderstorms will transition into a line
of thunderstorms and push into the D10 sites by 23Z-00Z and push
into KACT by 01Z-02Z. Additional showers and thunderstorms, non-
severe, may linger into Friday morning across Central Texas.
Strong north-northwesterly winds gusting to 35-40 kts at times are
expected behind the front late this evening and into Friday
morning.

Langfeld

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    39  55  38  57  35 /  80   0   0   0   0
Waco                40  55  39  56  36 /  70  30   0   5   5
Paris               38  52  34  55  30 /  90   0   0   0   0
Denton              35  53  33  56  30 /  60   0   0   0   0
McKinney            38  53  34  55  30 /  90   0   0   0   0
Dallas              40  55  38  57  35 /  80   5   0   0   0
Terrell             39  54  36  57  32 /  90  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           41  55  39  57  36 /  80  30   0   0   0
Temple              40  55  38  56  36 /  80  40   5   5  10
Mineral Wells       36  55  34  57  32 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Friday for
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
139 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-171200-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
139 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop today with a severe
threat this afternoon and evening. Large hail (greater than golf ball
size) will be the main threat with initial storm development. As a
cold front approaches late this afternoon, a damaging wind threat
will increase. There will also be a potential for tornadoes into the
evening hours.

Strong winds will spread into the region behind the cold front this
evening with wind gusts up to 45 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Freezing temperatures will be possible during the upcoming weekend,
particularly in areas north of the I-20 corridor. A late-season frost
is likely Saturday morning in sheltered locations and where light
winds dominate.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this afternoon and evening across North
and Central Texas.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
157 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

TXZ115-161930-
Stephens TX-
157 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Stephens
County through 230 PM CDT...

At 156 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Breckenridge, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Breckenridge, Hubbard Creek Reservoir, Crystal Falls, Caddo, Possum
Kingdom Lake, Eolian, Ivan and Eliasville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for north central
Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3283 9909 3296 9893 3295 9858 3272 9858
      3263 9909
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 254DEG 35KT 3280 9885

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

30