Tornado in Puerto Rico, March 16, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1149 AM AST Thu Mar 16 2023

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 AM AST Thu Mar 16 2023

The latest sounding (TJSJ 16/12z) detected a south-southwesterly
wind flow from the surface to around 5,000 feet. Surface winds are
light at between 5 and 10 mph. However, a frontal boundary is
approaching from the northwest, increasing the moisture content
and local winds tonight into tomorrow morning. Therefore, we
expect showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop across the
Cordillera Central (spreading to the rest of the island) by this
afternoon into the evening. Unsettled weather conditions will
continue tomorrow (Friday) morning, drying out by Saturday and
winds returning from the northeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM AST Thu Mar 16 2023

VFR conditions will persist across most local terminals through
16/20z. However, BKN/OVC skies with SHRA/+SHRA/TSRA will spread
from the NW due to an old cold front aft 16/20z onward. Therefore
MVFR or even IFR conds will be possible at JBQ/JSJ by mid-
afternoon into tomorrow morning. Winds will persist mainly from
the west-southwest at 5-15 knots, dominated by sea breeze
variations. Winds will become calm to light and variable after
16/23z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1138 AM AST Thu Mar 16 2023

The San Juan Local buoys detected a long-period northerly swell
with a period between 14 seconds and wave heights around 4 feet
resulting in dangerous breaking waves around 10 feet along the
Atlantic Coastline of PR and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Small craft operators should exercise caution due to seas around
20 knots. Winds and seas will increase even more later this
afternoon onward as the frontal boundary cross the region.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Variable weather conditions are expected today to the
approach of a cold front. Scattered to numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms are also expected with this event across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Another pulse of
northerly swell will arrive to the regional waters later today,
deteriorating marine conditions once again. There are several
advisories and rip-current statements in effect. Please visit our
marine section.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday

A cold front north of Hispaniola will continue to sink southwards
and it is expected to cross the region later this evening into
Friday morning. Light southerly winds converging with stronger
northerly winds will result in afternoon convection over the
interior and eastern half of Puerto Rico today. Then, as the front
push southwards, additional showers are expected across the rest of
PR and the U.S. Virgin Islands through the overnight hours. The mid-
to upper-level trough will promote colder than normal 500 mb
temperatures with the frontal passage and isolated thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out. Urban and small stream flooding is expected
with this activity, as well as isolated flash flooding.

A building low to mid-level ridge behind the front will promote
stable conditions and drier air intrusion across the area later on
Friday and through Saturday. Breezy and fair weather conditions in
general are expected to prevail across all the islands, especially
on Saturday. Daytime temperatures should range from the low to mid
80s across the eastern and northern coastal areas of PR, as well
across the USVI, while the south and west coast of PR could see
temperatures in the mid to high 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...

A surface high pressure located north of the area in the Central
Atlantic will maintain moderate to locally fresh trades over the
region. By Sunday into the beginning of the workweek, tropical
moisture will move over the islands increasing the potential for
shower development for most of the long-term period. Passing
showers will be observed across the eastern and northern portions
of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the overnight
and morning hours. Then, followed by afternoon convection across
the Central Interior and western Puerto Rico. The latest model
guidance (GFS) suggest a increase in moisture that will lead to
isolated to scattered showers across the region. The Precipitable
Water content between 1.50 to 1.75 inches, suggest in effect a
wetter weather pattern. Therefore, ponding of water in roads and
poor drainage areas may be possible. From Wednesday through
Thursday, a mass of drier air will filter into the local area,
limiting the shower formation across the local islands. Daytime
temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s along the coastal
areas and in the mid to upper 70s across the central interior.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected thru 16/16z. Then, SHRA
with possible TSRA are expected to gradually increase from the
north, as a front moves across the local area. MVFR to tempo IFR
condtions are possible btw 16/19z-23z at TJSJ, spreading across the
rest of the terminals thru the overnight. Expect mtn top obscd.
Light southerly winds should prevail across all terminals, except
TJBQ/TJSJ where a northerly component is expected aft 16/14z. West-
northwest winds increasing 15-20 kt expected aft 17/00z.

&&

.MARINE...Another pulse of northerly swell is forecast to arrive
later today across the local Atlantic waters. Hazardous conditions
are expected and will persist throughout the weekend. Mariners can
expect seas that will increase up to 12 feet across the offshore
Atlantic waters and up to 8 feet in the rest of the waters and
Passages. Breaking waves will remain up to 14 feet, mainly along
the northern coastal areas of Puerto Rico. A High Surf Advisory is
in effect from the northwestern to northeastern beaches of Puerto
Rico, and Culebra. A Small Craft Advisory will start in effect
this afternoon for most of the regional waters. For beachgoers,
there is a high risk of rip currents along the northern exposed
beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Saint Thomas, Saint John, and
Saint Croix.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Sunday for PRZ001-002-005-008-
     010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM AST this evening through Sunday
     afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM AST Sunday
     for AMZ712-741-742.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 2 PM AST Sunday for
     AMZ716-723.

&&

CAM,RVT

Perspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR
459 AM AST jueves 16 de marzo de 2023

AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-170900-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-
Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y
Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-Las aguas cercanas y lejanas a la
costa del Atlantico y del Caribe-
459 AM AST jueves 16 de marzo de 2023

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Puerto Rico.

.DIA UNO...Hoy y esta noche

.Rayos...Tronadas aisladas son posibles a traves de sectores de las
islas avanzada la tarde y esta noche. Permanezca atento a tronadas
en su area y este preparado para buscar refugio.

.Lluvias excesivas...Se esperan inundaciones de areas urbanas,
calles, riachuelos y drenajes a traves del este, centro, norte y
sureste de Puerto Rico, incluyendo a Vieques y Culebra. Inundaciones
repentinas aisladas son posibles.

.Vientos...Condiciones ventosas esta noche a traves de la costa
noroeste de Puerto Rico. Articulos no asegurados en el exterior
pudieran ser arrastrados por los vientos.

.Condiciones Maritimas...Oleaje mayor o igual a 10 pies en las aguas
mar afuera del Atlantico esta noche, y entre 6 y 9 pies a traves de
sectores costeros del norte y los pasajes. Condiciones peligrosas
para las embarcaciones pequenas.

.Corrientes Marinas...Corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son
probables en la zona de olas rompientes, particularmente a traves de
las playas desde el oeste al noreste de las islas.

.DIAS DOS A SIETE...viernes a miercoles

Pulsos adicionales de marejadas del norte continuaran resultando en
oleaje de 7 pies o mas a traves de las aguas locales del Atlantico y
los pasajes del Caribe hasta finales de la semana. Persistira un
riesgo alto de corrientes marinas al igual que condiciones de
resacas con olas rompientes peligrosas para las playas del norte. Un
frente frio continuara moviendose sobre la region hasta el viernes
en la manana. Inundaciones menores son posibles. Los vientos tambien
aumentaran y se tornaran mas del noreste para finales de la semana
laboral.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar situaciones
relacionadas a las condiciones del tiempo. Favor de informar
inundaciones, vientos y oleaje y corrientes marinas al Servicio
Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.

AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-170900-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-
Santa Cruz-Las aguas cercanas a la costa del Atlantico y las aguas
costeras adyacentes del Caribe-
459 AM AST jueves 16 de marzo de 2023

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
las Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses.

.DIA UNO...Hoy y esta noche

.Rayos...Tronadas aisladas son posibles a traves de sectores de las
islas esta noche. Permanezca atento a tronadas en su area y este
preparado para buscar refugio.

.Lluvias excesivas...Inundaciones de areas urbanas, calles,
riachuelos y drenajes. Inundaciones repentinas aisladas son posibles.

.Condiciones Maritimas...Oleaje mayor o igual a 10 pies en las aguas
mar afuera del Atlantico esta noche, y entre 6 y 9 pies a traves de
sectores costeros del norte y los pasajes. Condiciones peligrosas
para las embarcaciones pequenas.

.Corrientes Marinas...Corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son
probables en la zona de olas rompientes, particularmente a traves de
las playas del oeste a noreste de las islas.

.DIAS DOS A SIETE...viernes a miercoles

Pulsos adicionales de marejadas del norte continuaran resultando en
oleaje de 7 pies o mas a traves de las aguas locales del Atlantico y
los pasajes del Caribe hasta finales de la semana. Persistira un
riesgo alto de corrientes marinas al igual que condiciones de
resacas con olas rompientes peligrosas para las playas del norte. Un
frente frio continuara moviendose sobre la region hasta el viernes
en la manana. Inundaciones menores son posibles. Los vientos tambien
aumentaran y se tornaran mas del noreste para finales de la semana
laboral.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar situaciones
relacionadas a las condiciones del tiempo. Favor de informar
inundaciones, vientos y oleaje y corrientes marinas al Servicio
Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1056 AM AST THU MAR 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     RIP CURRENTS     LUQUILLO                18.38N 65.72W
03/16/2023                   AMZ712             PR   NEWSPAPER

            *** 1 FATAL ***
            THIS MORNING, AROUND 7:45 AM, 9-1-1
            OPERATORS RECEIVED A REPORT OF A DROWNING IN
            LA PARED BEACH IN LUQUILLO. POLICE OFFICERS
            FOUND A MALE BETWEEN 25 AND 35 YEARS OLD
            DROWNED ON THE SHORE.

&&

CAM