Severe storms developed over portions of eastern NM. One strong storm dropped nickel sized hail in Colfax County in the afternoon.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
Severe storms developed over portions of eastern NM. One strong storm dropped nickel sized hail in Colfax County in the afternoon. Later in the evening, two severe storms produced strong wind gusts at the Tucumcari and Roswell airport observing sites.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 30, 2:22 PM MST, 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 322 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 319 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Scattered to numerous showers and storms will persist through most of the overnight hours along and east of the central mountain chain, with the greatest coverage across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and northeast NM. This activity will help send a east canyon wind through the gaps of the central mountain chain into the Albuquerque and Santa Fe metros, with wind gusts of up to 40 mph possible. More rounds of showers and storms will fire up along and east of the central mountain chain Sunday and Monday, ahead of a deep storm system over the western US. Meanwhile for areas along and west of the central mountain chain, southwest winds Sunday and Monday afternoon will be strong with sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph, gusting up to 55 to 60 mph in the higher terrain and peaks. Showers and storms clear eastern New Mexico Monday, with a much drier and cooler fall airmass in its place. A trailing disturbance could give a few showers and storms across parts of eastern New Mexico Wednesday afternoon, along with an east wind Wednesday night across the Rio Grande Valley. Dry cool and calm conditions will follow as high pressure builds east. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 319 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023 The pattern is quickly evolving to a more unsettled one as the Pacific trough has deepened into a low inland over the Great Basin. As was advertised, this has drawn in a stiff, moist southerly flow into NM. Storms are rapidly initiating along a north-south axis over central NM where large scale ascent and instability are juxtaposed and increasing. The relatively strong flow (25 to 35 kt mean 700-500 mb layer) is keeping updrafts tilted and moving at a fast pace, and while there is minimal directional shear, ample speed shear will keep a low threat for a strong to severe cell, with downburst winds likely being the most threatening element. The exception to this will be the burn scars which will be more vulnerable to repeated downpours and runoff issues. Storm coverage will expand to eastern plains zones through the evening as ascent spreads, and cells are expected to sustain and regenerate through Sunday morning. Even after dawn Sunday, some light showers or stray storms may survive into the northeastern plains with some low stratus or fog developing on some east slope and northern peak areas. The initial vort lobe is modeled to lift northeastward into southern ID Sunday with a secondary one diving toward the southern tip of NV. This will cause the upper level gradient to tighten more over NM, particularly in western zones. While large scale ascent might begin to become more subdued, the broadening speed max aloft will be spreading into more of western NM. This will lead to more widespread breezy to windy conditions (especially in western and northern NM) while the coverage of storms remain mostly confined to the eastern third of the state where again a few strong to severe storms will be possible. Additional Wind Advisories will also be needed for Sunday, perhaps even in portions of the Rio Grande valley where the due southerly flow will be oriented parallel to the valley and unrestricted. Despite all these ongoings, temperatures on Sunday will still be seasonable. Similar to tonight, storms may redevelop repeatedly through Sunday night into Monday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 319 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Monday will be pretty similar to Sunday across northern and central NM, as the slow moving upper level low over Nevada and Utah opens up and moves northeast towards the Rockies. Subtle shortwaves in the southwest flow ahead of the upper level trough interacting with PWATs between 1 to 1.25 inches will result in another afternoon to early overnight round of showers and storms, mainly along and east of the central mountain chain. Storm motion will be quick to the northeast at around 30 to 40 kts, but with multiple rounds of showers and storms, a quick 0.50 inches to 1 inch, with locally higher amounts could be possible. Luckily, the heaviest rain looks to be just east of the HPCC and McBride burn scars. Meanwhile for areas along and west of the central mountain chain, southwest winds will be strong in the afternoon hours as daytime mixing helps translate the stronger flow of 40 to 50 kts down to the surface. Winds of 20 to 30 kts will be common across central and western NM, with some gusts of up to 50 kts in the higher terrain and peaks. There could be some near critical fire weather concerns once again, even though temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Sunday thanks to the lower heights moving in (see fire wx discussion). Winds across central and western NM should quickly lower after sunset, as the ABL decouples. Showers and storms across eastern NM, should exit into west Texas before sunrise Tuesday morning. The upper level trough passes to the north of the state Tuesday. Cooler and conditions are expected behind the Pacific cold front, with eastern areas just a touch warmer compared to Monday due to much less rain and cloud cover and downslope westerly flow. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below average for early October behind the Pacific front across western and central areas, while eastern areas will be near to a few degrees above average. Westerly winds will be breezy to windy across the highlands and eastern plains due to downward mixing of the stronger upper level westerly flow at the base of the upper trough. The broad upper level trough, exiting into the northern plains, will help send a backdoor front through the eastern plains early Wednesday before noon. This will cool temperatures down by 5 to 10 degrees compared to Tuesday to well below normal readings, with some gusty northeast winds of 15 to 25 kts across far northeast NM behind the backdoor front. A trailing shortwave of the backside of the parent upper level trough will clip northeast NM during the day Wednesday, and this could help spark a few showers and storms across the northern mountains, and in far southeastern zones, as some higher low level moisture could hang up there. Meanwhile, it will be pleasant across western and central NM with light winds and temperatures in the 60s and 70s across the lower elevations. The backdoor front across eastern NM Wednesday will move through the gaps of the central mountain chain Wednesday night into the RGV, including ABQ and Santa Fe with wind gusts of up to 20 to 25 kts. From there, the GFS and ECMWF deterministic and ensembles are in good agreement of keeping Wednesday's trailing shortwave progressive into the southern US and nosing in upper level ridging across the Western US east into the state. Cool, dry, and mostly sunny conditions will prevail with temperatures near to around 10 degrees below average for early October. Anand && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 AM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Unsettled weather will unfold quickly this afternoon with stronger prevailing winds and much more shower and thunderstorm activity developing as Pacific storm system moves farther inland, drawing moist southerly flow into New Mexico. Prevailing winds will be strongest in far western and northern New Mexico, especially over and downwind (north) of higher terrain where gusts of 25 to 40 kt will be possible through early evening. Thunderstorms will be most common in central and eastern New Mexico this afternoon and evening, but could last well into the early morning Sunday. Small hail, lightning, brief heavy downpours, and gusty outflow/downburst winds will accompany stronger storms. Low stratus clouds and perhaps ground fog may develop along and east of the Sangre de Cristo mountains Sunday morning, potentially impacting KAXX, KRTN and KLVS with MVFR to IFR ceilings/visibility. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 319 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO STRONG WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY AND AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO STRONG WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY AND AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS... Windy weather will become more widespread and significant into Sunday and early next week as a powerful Pacific system swings inland and slowly overtakes the Rockies. Today’s strongest winds, focused over west central and much of northern NM will subside some around sunset, although many ridges and high peaks may stay gusty through the overnight. Storms in central NM will also be spreading soaking rainfall into eastern NM tonight through Sunday morning. Sunday’s winds will strengthen and expand eastward with low dewpoints and RH persisting in western zones. Minimum RH will hover marginally close to critical thresholds in northwestern (Zone 101) to west central (Zone 105) areas, and given the dearth of appreciable rain there, have opted to add a Fire Weather Watch for Sunday when gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be common. Windy conditions will certainly be found in central areas such as the Rio Grande valley Sunday, but RH should hold closer to 20 to 30 percent, reducing the threat of critical conditions there. Eastern zones should continue to receive areas of much needed wetting rainfall. Into Monday, the winds will remain strong with the highest gusts stretching along more of a southwest-northeast axis across the forecast area as the upper level disturbance moves more toward the northern Rockies. Humidity appears to stay just above critical thresholds in western zones (generally along and west of the Continental Divide), but this will need to be monitored closely. Scattered to numerous storms will keep increasing the number of rainfall recipients in eastern zones Monday. The strongest winds will then shift toward eastern zones on Tuesday with drier air punching in and scouring out rain chances. The next significant weather feature of interest would then be a backdoor cold front Wednesday into Wednesday night with gusty gap winds developing and mostly dry conditions prevailing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 54 81 48 72 / 20 20 10 20 Dulce........................... 42 75 41 71 / 70 30 40 40 Cuba............................ 49 73 49 72 / 50 20 20 40 Gallup.......................... 44 76 39 71 / 0 0 5 10 El Morro........................ 45 73 41 70 / 0 5 5 20 Grants.......................... 45 77 41 73 / 10 10 5 20 Quemado......................... 46 73 43 71 / 0 0 0 10 Magdalena....................... 51 76 51 76 / 50 10 10 20 Datil........................... 46 73 44 71 / 10 5 5 10 Reserve......................... 48 76 45 73 / 0 0 0 5 Glenwood........................ 55 82 53 78 / 0 0 0 10 Chama........................... 41 68 41 65 / 80 30 40 50 Los Alamos...................... 51 71 53 70 / 60 30 30 50 Pecos........................... 51 71 51 70 / 80 40 50 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 38 71 38 69 / 80 30 30 40 Red River....................... 39 66 39 66 / 80 30 30 40 Angel Fire...................... 38 66 38 65 / 70 40 40 50 Taos............................ 45 73 46 71 / 80 30 30 30 Mora............................ 45 67 45 68 / 80 50 50 50 Espanola........................ 53 80 53 77 / 80 30 30 30 Santa Fe........................ 53 74 54 73 / 70 30 40 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 52 77 53 75 / 70 30 30 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 57 80 57 78 / 50 20 20 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 58 81 58 79 / 40 20 20 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 54 83 57 82 / 40 20 20 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 57 81 58 80 / 40 20 20 20 Belen........................... 56 84 56 83 / 40 10 10 10 Bernalillo...................... 56 83 56 81 / 50 20 20 30 Bosque Farms.................... 55 82 55 81 / 40 10 20 20 Corrales........................ 56 83 57 80 / 50 20 20 20 Los Lunas....................... 57 83 55 82 / 40 10 20 20 Placitas........................ 56 80 55 77 / 50 20 30 30 Rio Rancho...................... 57 81 57 79 / 50 20 20 20 Socorro......................... 57 84 57 85 / 50 10 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 53 74 53 72 / 50 20 30 30 Tijeras......................... 54 76 54 74 / 50 20 30 30 Edgewood........................ 48 76 50 74 / 60 30 30 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 47 77 48 76 / 60 30 30 30 Clines Corners.................. 49 73 49 72 / 70 40 30 40 Mountainair..................... 51 76 52 75 / 50 20 20 20 Gran Quivira.................... 51 77 52 75 / 50 20 20 30 Carrizozo....................... 55 80 57 78 / 80 20 30 30 Ruidoso......................... 48 73 50 71 / 70 40 40 50 Capulin......................... 49 69 49 69 / 50 40 40 40 Raton........................... 50 73 50 73 / 50 30 30 40 Springer........................ 52 74 52 75 / 60 50 50 40 Las Vegas....................... 50 69 51 71 / 80 60 60 50 Clayton......................... 57 75 57 72 / 40 40 40 50 Roy............................. 54 72 54 73 / 70 60 70 50 Conchas......................... 58 79 58 79 / 80 70 60 60 Santa Rosa...................... 56 76 58 73 / 70 60 50 60 Tucumcari....................... 59 79 59 76 / 60 60 50 60 Clovis.......................... 60 79 60 74 / 50 60 50 70 Portales........................ 62 80 61 76 / 50 60 50 70 Fort Sumner..................... 60 79 60 76 / 90 60 50 60 Roswell......................... 65 86 64 82 / 80 40 40 50 Picacho......................... 56 80 56 78 / 70 40 40 50 Elk............................. 52 78 53 74 / 80 40 40 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-105. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NMZ101-105. Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ202-205-216-227- 228-230-231. Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ215-226-228-229. && SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...52
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
135 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023
NMZ212-214-218-302000-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Santa Fe Metro Area-Glorieta Mesa
Including Glorieta Pass-
135 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL SANTA FE COUNTY THROUGH
200 PM MDT...
At 134 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Eldorado At Santa Fe, or 12 miles south of Santa Fe, moving northeast
at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Santa Fe, Eldorado At Santa Fe, Canada De Los Alamos, Lamy, Glorieta,
Galisteo, Tesuque, and Agua Fria.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 276 and 302, and near Mile Marker
307.
Highway 285 between Mile Markers 281 and 290.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.
Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3537 10603 3553 10612 3575 10592 3550 10567
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 235DEG 23KT 3550 10597
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CASpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
218 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023
NMZ215-228-302045-
Far Northeast Highlands-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
218 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTY THROUGH
245 PM MDT...
At 218 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cimarron, or 17 miles northwest of Springer, moving northeast at 20
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Cimarron and Philmont Scout Ranch.
This includes Highway 64 between Mile Markers 306 and 324.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.
Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3666 10477 3664 10477 3665 10476 3664 10474
3662 10472 3663 10471 3656 10459 3637 10483
3647 10501 3671 10487
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 213DEG 16KT 3650 10486
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CASpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
303 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023
NMZ215-227-228-302130-
Far Northeast Highlands-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo
Mountains-Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
303 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTY THROUGH
330 PM MDT...
At 303 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Maxwell, or 18 miles north of Springer, moving
northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Maxwell and Raton Crews Airport.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 426 and 444.
Highway 64 between Mile Markers 319 and 342.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.
Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3648 10471 3666 10486 3686 10450 3660 10431
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 243DEG 25KT 3664 10462
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CASpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
306 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023
NMZ214-218-302130-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Santa Fe Metro Area-
306 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN SANTA FE COUNTY THROUGH
330 PM MDT...
At 305 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
Santa Fe, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Santa Fe, Hyde Memorial State Park, Tesuque, Agua Fria, Chupadero,
and La Cienega.
This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 277 and 285.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.
Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3574 10577 3564 10589 3565 10590 3564 10591
3563 10591 3556 10599 3565 10617 3587 10604
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 210DEG 22KT 3566 10602
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CASpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
331 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023
NMZ226-239-302200-
Eastern Lincoln County-South Central Mountains-
331 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM MDT...
At 331 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hondo, or 18 miles east of Ruidoso, moving northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Hondo, Tinnie, San Patricio, and Sunset.
This includes Highway 380 between Mile Markers 99 and 107.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.
Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3330 10532 3331 10548 3332 10550 3355 10530
3332 10502 3319 10532
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 228DEG 15KT 3331 10533
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CAThe Pueblo radar (KPUX), 188 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:48 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Hail accumulation of 1 inch in the area resulted in two accidents on I-25.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, September 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1129358, 1129359, 1129362.