Afternoon and evening sea breeze thunderstorms interacting with a stalled frontal boundary to the north over central Florida produce heavy rain and street flooding near North Port in Sarasota County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TBW wrote it up.
Afternoon and evening sea breeze thunderstorms interacting with a stalled frontal boundary to the north over central Florida produce heavy rain and street flooding near North Port in Sarasota County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 30, 1:29 PM EST, 4 hours 16 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
229 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023
Southwest flow aloft ahead of a mid level trough in the Gulf of
Mexico continues to pump deep moisture into the region with PWATs in
excess of 2" area-wide. At the surface, a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary is in place across central Florida and this feature
combined with the abundant moisture will support the development
of scattered to numerous showers and storms with greatest coverage
through the remainder of the day expected to be from Tampa Bay
southward where less cloud cover today has allowed better
destabilization to occur.
Any activity from today should taper off by mid to late evening with
the loss of heating and afterwards it appears that low stratus will
develop again overnight across much of the area with the moist low
levels in place, though winds should remain elevated enough to
prevent much in the way of any fog concerns. Meanwhile, the
aforementioned frontal boundary will slowly shift southward
tonight as it drops into south FL on Sunday with drier air
starting to filter in across the Nature Coast which will yield
much lower rain chances tomorrow at around 20%-30%. However, there
will still be plenty of moisture around to support another round
of scattered/numerous storms south of I-4 with PoPs around
60%-70% with locally heavy rainfall continuing to remain the main
concern.
Much drier air will spread across the remainder of the Florida
peninsula by early next week as the frontal boundary pushes into
the northern Caribbean as surface high pressure shifts eastward
across the mid- Atlantic and Northeast. However, many days next
week will still feature PoPS around 20%-40% as pockets of higher
moisture move through at times due to persistent low level NE
flow combined with an upper level trough in the western Atlantic
helping to bring Atlantic moisture through the region. It appears
that the base of this trough in the western Atlantic eventually
closes off by the middle of the week with an upper level low
meandering off the east coast of FL so this may increase rain
chances a touch more by the middle to end of the week. However,
models show this feature weakening and eventually lifting out of
the area by the end of the week and start of next weekend as a
strong upper level trough digs across the eastern US with a cold
front expected to approach our region by the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023
VFR conditions to start the period but abundant moisture and a
stalled frontal boundary will support scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms late afternoon and evening. Greatest
precip chances will occur at PGD/FMY/RSW but there is a chance at
all terminals from roughly 30/20Z-02/02Z where a quick
deterioration in flight conditions will be possible in any heavy
thunderstorms. Otherwise, precip activity tapers off by late
evening and low clouds spread across the region overnight with
MVFR or IFR CIGs developing early Sunday morning with CIGs then
slowly rising into Sunday afternoon. Winds will primarily be out
of the ENE with winds tonight around 5-7 kts but increase into
Sunday with occasional gusts of 15-20 kts possible towards end of
the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023
A frontal boundary will move through the Gulf waters tonight into
Sunday with east-northeast winds increasing in the wake of this
feature as high pressure builds in from the north. Winds may reach
SCEC conditions for northern marine zones tonight wind speeds
increasing further into Sunday around 15 kts or more for
central/northern waters where SCEC conditions will remain possible
at times, but winds will be less for southern waters at around 10
kts. The pressure gradient is expected to strengthen further by
the end of the weekend and early next week and eventual small
craft advisory headlines could possibly needed. In addition,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through
the remainder of the weekend but drier air will limit rain chances
into next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023
A frontal boundary will move through the area tonight and Sunday
with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible at times,
especially south of I-4 where deeper moisture is in place. East-
northeast winds will increase in the wake of this feature but minimum
RH values remain above critical levels so there are no fire danger
concerns at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 88 74 89 / 20 70 0 20
FMY 77 88 75 89 / 50 80 20 40
GIF 74 84 72 86 / 30 70 0 20
SRQ 74 88 73 90 / 30 80 10 20
BKV 73 87 69 88 / 20 50 0 20
SPG 77 86 76 87 / 30 70 0 10
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ClosePreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
516 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0301 PM Waterspout 2 SE Saint James City 26.48N 82.06W
09/30/2023 GMZ836 FL Broadcast Media
Brief waterspout spotted around 3 PM just
north of the Sanibel Causeway. Media report
with video received on social media.
&&
TBWThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Local EM reported multiple street closures in North Port due to heavy afternoon and evening rainfall.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, September 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1139025.