Heavy rainfall led to flooding in Ormond Beach in Volusia County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MLB wrote it up.
Heavy rainfall led to flooding in Ormond Beach in Volusia County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 30, 2:09 AM EST, 6 hours 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 309 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023 ...New MARINE, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY... .DISCUSSION... ...Threat for Locally Heavy Rainfall Continues... ...High Risk for Life-Threatening Rip Currents at All Central Florida Beaches this Weekend... Current...Weak frontal boundary remains strewn across the central FL peninsula and continues to be the focus for deep moisture and showery precip. Models continue to show increasing (onshore moving) coverage thru early this morning with the focus across the Volusia coast and perhaps the north Brevard coast. Will have to monitor for any persistent banding of heavier showers and embedded lightning storms for flooding concerns. Otherwise conditions remain warm and humid. Will also have to monitor for stratus and patchy fog development, though we continue to keep fog mention out of the grids/zones for now. Today-Tonight...The weak front will linger across the central peninsula again today. Greatest threat for showers and lightning storms along the coast this morning/early afternoon with the focus further inland and perhaps south of Orlando into mid-late afternoon and early evening. Torrential downpours may produce localized totals of 2-4" with minor/nuisance flooding the main concern. Other threats include brief gusty winds and occasional to frequent lightning strikes. PWAT values remain well in excess of 2 inches areawide. Mainly zonal flow aloft with shortwave impulses embedded within to enhance convective activity. H5 temps between -6.0C and -7.0C. Keeping PoPs near 70pct over most of the area. Steering flow light/variable and generally 5 mph or less, so expect erratic movement of cells, especially where larger boundary collisions occur. Saturated soils in some areas will not take much more rainfall to easily promote minor flooding. Local hi-res models favoring heavy rainfall potential again late tonight-early Sun morning, Brevard County northward. Clouds overhead and deep moisture will aid to keep temps in check with highs in the M-U80s, though Volusia County and perhaps north Brevard County may struggle into the L80s depending on cloud cover and rainfall. Overnight lows in the L-M70s. Northeast winds today likely to become breezy in the afternoon, Melbourne northward (especially along the coast). Sunday-Monday...The weak frontal boundary, initially around the Lake Okeechobee region Sunday morning, will drift southward through the period, as high pressure builds into the eastern US. Aloft, a mid- level trough will drop through the local area. Will finally see shower and storm chances begin to decrease, with drier air beginning to filter in behind the front. Nonetheless, some deeper moisture will linger, especially over southern portions of the CWA on Sunday. PWATs up to 2.4" will continue to lead to PoPs 70-80% south of Orlando. To the north, forecast PWATs of 1.9-2" will lead to 40- 60% PoPs. With the front then over south Florida by Monday morning, will see a noticeable change in available moisture (and therefore humidity) as PWATs fall to below 1.5", possibly approaching 1" at times. Despite drier air, the presence of the mid-level trough and some moisture surges moving onshore will allow for some scattered showers and storms, especially along the coast PoPs 30-40% from Orlando eastward, with 20% to the west. Drier air aloft will begin to limit lightning storm potential Monday, though a few isolated lightning storms will remain possible. The tightening pressure gradient between high pressure building to the north and the sagging frontal boundary will lead to increasing northeasterly winds Sunday, which then become breezy on Monday. Breezy conditions will be especially prevalent along the coast. Highs generally near-normal for the season, in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the lower to mid-70s. Tuesday-Saturday...Troughiness persists into late week in the mid and upper levels, with high pressure continuing over the eastern US, as the aforementioned frontal boundary pushes into the northern Caribbean. Drier air will stick around over the local area, though surges of PWATs up to around 1.5" will continue to drift onshore, as northeast winds persist. PoPs 40-50% Tuesday and Wednesday decrease to 30-40% through late week, due to further drying. Lightning storm chances will remain fairly low, thanks to dry air aloft. Breezy conditions will continue through midweek, decreasing in time for next weekend. As rain chances and cloud cover decrease, will see afternoon highs increase through the period. Highs in the mid-80s through Wednesday increase to the upper 80s by Thursday and Friday. Lows, however, will see a slight decrease, reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Today-Tonight...Weak frontal boundary aligned east-west across the local coastal waters. Showery precip with embedded thunder equating to higher than normal rain chances. Small craft should Exercise Caution offshore (north of Sebastian Inlet) for seas building to 6 ft. The pressure gradient increases late today into tonight with NE wind speeds becoming 15-20 kts Cape northward by daybreak Sun morning. Seas will continue to build tonight with 5- 7 ft seas Cape northward (offshore) after midnight and building to 6 ft near shore Volusia and possibly as far south as offshore Indian River County. Cautionary Statements will likely be extended and Small Craft Advisories may become necessary (offshore Brevard/Volusia) after midnight. Otherwise seas will range from 3-5 ft. Winds/seas higher invof heavier showers and lightning storms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Rather low confidence forecast. Will need to keep watch for pockets of stratus/patchy fog (IFR possible) this morning, along with banding precip across Volusia County and perhaps north Brevard County. Otherwise, higher than normal shower/lightning storm chances in play over the next 24 hours. A healthy mix of "Vicinity" wording and TEMPO groups likely, as well as some prevailing precip at times. MVFR CIGs at many terminals and some ISOLD IFR in storms. NERLY winds increasing and becoming gusty at times in the afternoon. Sunday-Thursday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions will linger through at least mid week next week, as breezy northeast winds persist into Wednesday, before beginning to decrease on Thursday. Winds up to around 20kts Sunday and Monday, then around 15kts through much of the period. Seas will respond to the increase in winds, building from 4-6ft Sunday, with 7ft offshore north of Sebastian Inlet, to 6-8ft Monday night into mid week. Will see seas decrease Thursday, though they will remain up to 7ft offshore. Numerous showers and lightning storms on Sunday will become scattered through the period, as drier air moves into the area. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Elevated northeast winds across north-central Florida, high astronomical tides, and locally heavy rainfall will keep the Saint Johns River near Astor rising through minor flood stage, currently at 2.65 ft. The river is forecast to continue a gradual rise through Minor Flood stage through at least the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 84 74 82 73 / 70 60 50 20 MCO 88 75 84 73 / 70 40 60 10 MLB 87 76 85 75 / 70 70 80 30 VRB 88 76 86 75 / 70 70 80 40 LEE 86 74 85 70 / 60 30 40 10 SFB 86 74 84 72 / 70 50 60 10 ORL 87 75 85 73 / 70 50 60 10 FPR 88 76 86 75 / 60 70 80 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && SHORT TERM...Sedlock LONG TERM....Leahy AVIATION...Sedlock
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Melbourne FL 337 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023 AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159- 164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-010000- Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia- Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia- Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia- Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia- Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia- Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie- Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River- Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard- Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard- Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands- 337 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. .THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... Numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are expected to develop across east central Florida again today, especially across Volusia County and portions of Brevard County this morning, and favoring interior locations this afternoon and early evening. Wind gusts to 35 to 45 mph, frequent lightning strikes, and torrential downpours are expected with the strongest storms. Move indoors to safety if skies look threatening, or if you hear thunder .FLOOD IMPACT... Heavy showers and lightning storms are expected to move slowly with erratic movement at times. This may result in some locations receiving 1 to 3 inches of rain in a 1 to 2 hour period, with local amounts up to 4 inches possible in a few spots. Additional temporary flooding of roads, urban and poorly drained, low lying areas will be possible. Never attempt to drive across a water covered road as the water depth may be too great to allow your vehicle to make it across safely. .RIP CURRENT IMPACT... A High Risk of numerous strong and life-threatening rip currents continues at all central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the ocean is strongly discouraged! .MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT... Wind gusts up to 35 knots will be possible on inland lakes, the Intracoastal Waterway, and adjacent Atlantic waters today. .WATERSPOUT IMPACT... Marine interests should also be alert for the potential of waterspouts today. .WIND AND SEA IMPACT... Small craft should continue to Exercise Caution for seas up to 6 feet in the Volusia and Brevard segments of the Gulf Stream. .RIVER FLOOD IMPACT... The combination of elevated northeast winds, high astronomical tides, and locally heavy rainfall have pushed the Saint Johns River near Astor into minor flood stage. The river is forecast to rise within Minor Flood stage through at least the middle of next week. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Shower and lightning storm chances will remain well above normal into Sunday, before returning to levels more typical of early fall early next week. The threat for localized flooding will continue, especially where repeated rounds of heavy rainfall occur. Rapid ponding of water, and temporary flooding of roadways, urban, and poor drainage areas, is expected in these locations. Stronger storms will also be capable of gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes. Winds and seas are forecast to increase again by early Sunday, continuing into early next week. As a result, poor to hazardous boating conditions are expected to spread across all of the local Atlantic waters, especially well offshore. Increasing high astronomical tides may result in additional minor beach erosion or coastal flooding this weekend and early next week, especially north of Cape Canaveral. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight. However, please report rainfall amounts of 3 inches or greater, or relay any reports of flooding to the National Weather Service Office in Melbourne. Sedlock
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 heavy rain, 2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Volusia County Fire Rescue reported flooding of several areas in Ormond Beach due to excessive rainfall.
Volusia County Fire Rescue reports multiple road closures near the Tomoka Estates area. US-1 at Wall Ave was partially closed due to flooding. High Bridge Rd across the Halifax near State Road A1A was also closed due to flooding.
Weather Underground site KFLORMON122 measured 6.18 inches of rain for the date through the time of observation.
Weather Underground site KFLORMON203 measured 6.62 inches of rain for the date through the time of observation.
Weather Underground site KFLORMON18 measured 5.43 inches of rain for the date through the time of observation.
Weather Underground site KFLORMON179 measured 5.88 inches of rain for the date through the time of observation.
Weather Underground site KFLORMON224 measured 7.2 inches of rain for the date through the time of observation.
Weather Underground site KFLORMON188 measured 5.73 inches of rain for the date through the time of observation.
Weather Underground site KFLORMON106 measured 6.31 inches of rain for the date through the time of observation.
Weather Underground site KFLORMON105 measured 7.47 inches of rain for the date through the time of observation.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, September 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1142502, 1142507, 1142509, 1142510, 1142511, 1142512, 1142513, 1142514, 1142515, 1142516.