Heavy Snow in New Mexico, December 1 to 2, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1043 PM MST Thu Nov 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 242 PM MST Thu Nov 30 2023

Light rain and shower showers will continue to taper off in central
and eastern New Mexico this afternoon and early evening. Then, a
second and third round of winter weather are expected to come
through tonight through Saturday. Snow levels will fluctuate between
4,000 and 6,000 feet during the next couple of storm systems, but
significant accumulations will confined to locations above 8,000
feet in central and western New Mexico. Saturday and Sunday will be
windy across eastern New Mexico behind the last storm. Dry weather
and near to slightly above normal temperatures prevail next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 242 PM MST Thu Nov 30 2023

Another round of lowland rain and snow and accumulating mountain
snow is expected for areas mainly along and west of the central
mountain chain later tonight through Friday. A final wave expected
Friday night will be colder and models are notably lighter with the
forecast precipitation although it will be all snow. Forecast models
are not indicating the incoming round will be a closed system as
what resulted in this morning's rain and snow. However, grids may be
underestimating snowfall amounts in the Espanola Valley/Santa Fe
area late tonight into Friday, based on where models have placed the
precipitation bands. Along with potential for fog/freezing fog,
decided to stretch the Winter Weather Advisories issued this morning
out through the expiration time of the inherited highlights. Did go
ahead and drop the Northeast Highlands as the backwash precipitation
into that area has appeared to diminish, based on radar. Will also
allow the current Wind Advisory to expire as scheduled.

Temperatures Friday will remain about 5 to 15 degrees below
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 PM MST Thu Nov 30 2023

Northwest flow could allow mountain snow showers to continue into
early Saturday, but showers should be all wrapped up by the
afternoon as subsidence moves in behind the trough. As the final of
three Pacific waves exits into the Great Plains on Saturday, it will
induce the development of an ~1010mb surface Low in the TX
Panhandle. This will create windy conditions from the central
mountain chain eastward. The NBM appears to be too low with the
winds so they were increased closer to MOS guidance. Wind speeds are
around 30 to 40 KT at 700 mb and a few of these gusts will probably
mix down to the surface during the afternoon hours. The current
forecast shows wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, but winds may continue to
trend upward the next couple of days.

Dry, northwest flow continues into Sunday, but stronger gusts will
generally be confined to the central mountain chain and adjacent
highlands. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that ridging will
amplify over the West Coast early next week, pushing the jet stream
off to the northeast of New Mexico and allowing winds to decrease.
Temperatures will gradually warm to above seasonal averages early to
mid-next week as ridging nudges eastward. Mostly clear skies will
prevail each day so valley inversions will set-up overnight and make
for some cold nights, especially in mountain valleys where snowfall
remains on the ground.

Uncertainty increases in the forecast late next week. The trend
appears towards a breakdown in the ridge, but it isn't clear if this
will give way to a more progressive pattern or if a Low will cut off
somewhere over the desert southwest. Regardless, dry weather should
continue through at least the end of the workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 PM MST Thu Nov 30 2020

A series of disturbances will cross from the west for the
remainder of tonight through Friday evening with periods of
snow, lowest elevation rain, and late night/early morning
fog/freezing fog favoring western and north central areas, but
potentially also over central areas as far east as the central
mountain chain. Widespread MVFR and IFR conditions are expected
across north central and western areas tonight through Friday
morning. Flight categories should generally improve at lower
elevations Friday afternoon, but scattered to numerous rain and
snow showers are forecast to continue along and west of the
central mountain chain. There will probably also be isolated
thunderstorms in the mix Friday afternoon along and west of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and along and west of Mount Taylor.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 PM MST Thu Nov 30 2023

Another round of lowland rain and snow and accumulating mountain
snow is expected for mainly areas along and west of the central
mountain chain tonight through Friday with the final round Friday
night, which would be all snow with potentially lighter snowfall
amounts. A few thunderstorms are possible Friday over northwest into
north central NM. Daytime temperatures will be about 5 to 15 degrees
below normal through Sunday.

Drier and strong northwest winds along the central mountain chain
into the eastern plains Saturday may create an area of near critical
conditions across northeast and east central NM. Strong northwest
winds persist Sunday along the east slopes of the central mountain
chain into the eastern plains where localized near critical
conditions are possible. Winds relax Monday into Tuesday and
Wednesday as temperatures gradually recover to near or above normal.

Good to excellent ventilation is most likely and widespread Friday
and Saturday. Ventilation Sunday will be good mainly east of the
central mountain chain with fair to poor rates west of the RGV.
Widespread poor ventilation returns Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  28  40  21  40 /  50  50  40  10
Dulce...........................  23  35  16  36 /  60  70  50  20
Cuba............................  24  34  16  31 /  70  60  40  20
Gallup..........................  22  38  15  36 /  60  40  40  10
El Morro........................  25  35  18  33 /  60  50  60  10
Grants..........................  25  38  19  35 /  40  30  40  10
Quemado.........................  26  39  20  38 /  50  60  50  10
Magdalena.......................  26  43  26  41 /  10  30  30   5
Datil...........................  23  39  21  38 /  20  40  40   5
Reserve.........................  28  42  19  47 /  60  60  40   5
Glenwood........................  33  45  27  50 /  60  70  40   5
Chama...........................  18  30  10  30 /  50  70  50  30
Los Alamos......................  24  36  20  31 /  50  50  30  20
Pecos...........................  24  37  20  38 /  30  30  20  10
Cerro/Questa....................  15  34  15  29 /  20  30  20  10
Red River.......................  13  29  10  32 /  20  30  20  20
Angel Fire......................   9  34   6  28 /  30  30  20  10
Taos............................  20  37  16  32 /  30  30  20  10
Mora............................  20  40  18  37 /  20  20  20   5
Espanola........................  23  40  18  39 /  40  40  20  20
Santa Fe........................  25  36  20  33 /  40  40  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  26  39  21  35 /  40  30  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  29  40  26  41 /  40  30  30   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  31  44  27  42 /  30  30  20   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  26  45  23  45 /  30  30  20   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  30  44  26  42 /  40  30  20   5
Belen...........................  33  48  28  47 /  20  30  20   5
Bernalillo......................  29  43  25  42 /  40  30  20  10
Bosque Farms....................  30  46  26  45 /  30  30  20   5
Corrales........................  29  44  25  43 /  40  30  20  10
Los Lunas.......................  31  47  27  45 /  20  30  20   5
Placitas........................  29  40  25  37 /  50  30  30  10
Rio Rancho......................  30  43  26  42 /  40  30  20  10
Socorro.........................  33  49  29  51 /  10  30  10   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  25  37  23  36 /  50  30  40   5
Tijeras.........................  27  40  24  36 /  50  30  30   5
Edgewood........................  25  40  23  38 /  30  20  30   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  24  42  22  40 /  20  20  20   5
Clines Corners..................  24  39  21  35 /  10  10  10   0
Mountainair.....................  26  41  24  40 /  10  30  20   5
Gran Quivira....................  28  44  26  42 /  10  30  30   5
Carrizozo.......................  33  48  31  46 /   5  20  20   5
Ruidoso.........................  29  41  27  44 /  10  20  20   0
Capulin.........................  15  44  18  44 /   5   0   0   0
Raton...........................  16  46  18  47 /   5   0   0   0
Springer........................  17  46  18  48 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  21  43  21  41 /  10   5   5   0
Clayton.........................  19  48  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  21  49  23  49 /   5   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  24  50  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  30  51  30  49 /   5   0   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  23  54  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  28  55  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  28  57  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  30  55  32  55 /   0   0   5   0
Roswell.........................  33  61  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  34  53  33  55 /   0   0   5   0
Elk.............................  32  49  30  53 /   5   5  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MST Saturday for NMZ204>206-211.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST Saturday for NMZ201>203-
207-208-210-212-214-217-218-221.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
731 PM MST Thu Nov 30 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Snow             8 SW San Mateo          35.24N 107.73W
11/30/2023  E13.0 inch       Cibola             NM   Emergency Mngr

            Still snowing at the time report was
            provided on the phone.

&&

MAA

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
858 PM MST Thu Nov 30 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     Snow             Sheep Springs           36.14N 108.71W
11/30/2023  E4.0 inch        San Juan           NM   Public

            Fell late Wednesday night.

&&

44