NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 14, 2:42 PM EST, 1 hour 18 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 14, 2:42 PM EST, 1 hour 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
342 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal storm will continue to drift near the Gulf of Maine
tonight, before slowly moving out to sea Wednesday into Thursday.
High pressure builds across the central Appalachians tonight and
into the southeast states Wednesday into Thursday. A warm front will
lift across the area Friday, then a cold front will move across the
area Friday night, before moving out to sea Saturday. High pressure
will build into the region Monday, then retreat northward Tuesday
ahead of the next coastal storm.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Snow showers continue to rotate through as a coastal storm off
the New England coast moves away from our area. Expecting snow
to taper off from south to north as the rest of the afternoon
goes on. Highest snow totals have been in the upper elevations
of Sussex County, NJ, where reports of 5 to 9 inches have come
in. Across Monroe County, PA and Morris County, NJ, we've seen
reports of anywhere from 4 to 6 inches. Will maintain winter
headlines until expiration as light to steady snow continues to
fall in these spots. The Winter Storm Warning (Monroe County, PA
and Sussex County, NJ) and Winter Weather Advisory (Carbon
County, PA, and Warren/Morris County, NJ) go until 6 PM.
Expecting another inch or two at most to fall, confined to the
elevations near/over 1000 feet.
Elsewhere, skies are clearing out a bit and winds have ramped up
this afternoon. Seeing gusts across the region around 40-50 MPH,
with some spots even getting just above 50 MPH. Wind Advisory
remains in effect until midnight as gusty NW winds will
continue well into the overnight hours. Otherwise, expecting
rain/snow showers to depart by midnight or so up north.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20s across the
southern Poconos and NW NJ with upper 20s/low 30s through the
rest of the CWA.
Blustery conditions will continue for tomorrow as a tight
gradient remains with the departing low pressure off the Gulf of
Maine and high pressure building in from the west. Skies will
clear out by the late morning, allowing us to mix quite well.
This will bring down some gusty winds aloft. Gusts will be
less than today, and generally expecting 25-35 MPH, with
isolated gusts to 40 MPH. With good mixing, dewpoints are
expected to drop as well. Blended in some NBM 10th percentile
for dewpoints tomorrow as dry northwest flow patterns tend to
produce much lower dewpoints than most guidance. For areas that
did not see much rain the past few days (Delmarva/SE PA), there
could be some fire weather concerns with gusty winds-see Fire
Weather Section below for more info. High temperatures will be
around the low to mid 30s for the southern Poconos/NW NJ, low to
mid 40s for the Lehigh Valley, and mid to upper 40s for South
Jersey, Delmarva, and the Philly metro area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure continues to build in from the south Wednesday night
and into Thursday and Thursday night. Clear skies and calmer winds
Wednesday night will allow for robust radiational cooling, bringing
overnight lows below climatology, into the 20s with the urban
corridor seeing around 30.
Temperatures are expected to rebound nicely Thursday afternoon with
dry weather and high pressure remaining in control. Expect highs in
the mid to upper 50s across much of the forecast area with mid mid
to upper 40s across the Poconos and higher elevations. High pressure
begins to shift offshore Thursday night as the next storm system
approaches the region. Increasing clouds and return flow on the
western side of the high will keep overnight temperatures more on
the mild side in the upper 30s to low 40s. Could see a few early
showers across eastern PA early Friday morning as the system shifts
closer.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
On Thursday night into Friday, an area of low pressure will move
across the Great Lakes region. A warm front will move across the
area early Friday while a cold front approaches the Mid Atlantic
region. This cold front will move across the area Friday night,
while a secondary low develops near the area, before it moves
northeast along the front Saturday. This front will move out to sea
later on Saturday. Rainfall is expected to move into portions of the
area overnight Thursday and during the day Friday and continue at
times Friday night into Saturday, before ending by Saturday night.
High pressure builds well to our west Sunday while low pressure will
be in place across eastern Canada. This will keep a tight pressure
gradient across the area, leading to gusty winds on Sunday. Wind
gusts of 20-30 mph will be possible. The high will continue to build
eastward across the Mid Atlantic region during the day Monday,
allowing winds to diminish. Dry weather is expected for Sunday
through Monday.
High pressure will retreat to the north Tuesday ahead of the next
coastal storm. With timing and placement differences, there quite a
bit of uncertainty, but there is the potential for another coastal
storm to affect the Mid Atlantic region next Tuesday into
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Rest of today... VFR for RDG/ILG/MIV/ACY. Lower (mostly MVFR)
conditions at the remaining sites. Some IFR possible (tempo groups)
for KTTN/KPNE. Snow showers mostly central/Nrn NJ and ern PA with
gusty winds W/NW 20-25 kts with G40-42kts.
Tonight... VFR conditions expected with BKN/OVC clouds most spots.
Cloud cover decreases late. Gusty winds continue with G25-30 kts
most areas.
Wednesday... VFR expected. Gusty W/NW winds G25/30 kts.
Outlook...
Wednesday night...VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds
diminishing to 5-10 knots overnight.
Thursday-Thursday night...VFR conditions expected with increasing
clouds overnight. West winds 5-10 knots with gusts around 15 knots
during the day, becoming southwest around 5 knots overnight.
Friday-Saturday...Generally VFR, with periods of MVFR possible along
with showers likely at times. Southwest 5-10 knots during the day
Friday, becoming west to northwest Friday night, then west Saturday.
Saturday night...VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds 10-15
knots with gusts around 20 knots.
Sunday...VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds 10-15 knots, with
gusts 20-30 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Gale conditions will continue through tomorrow afternoon with NW
winds around 25-30 kts and gusts 35-45 kts. A few isolated storm
force gusts around the northern waters are possible for the next
few hours, but for the most part, gusts should stay in that
35-45 kt range. Seas around 6 to 10 feet. The Gale Warning goes
until 22z tomorrow. After that, SCA conditions are expected with
seas 5 to 7 feet and NW gusts around 25-30 kts.
Outlook...
Wednesday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely.
Thursday-Thursday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible
early, diminishing during the day.
Friday-Sunday...Small Craft Advisory conditions develop during the
day Friday and continue through Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
There is an elevated risk for fire weather tomorrow across
Delmarva. Will have an SPS out from 15z-23z tomorrow for these
locations as RHs are expected to drop into the 25-30% range
tomorrow afternoon, with wind gusts around 25-35 MPH. These
areas also did not receive much rainfall from the previous
storm-only around a tenth to two tenths of an inch of rain. Fuel
moistures are marginal overall, but with gusty winds and low
RHs, will go ahead with the SPS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ060>062-070-
071-101>106.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for PAZ055.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for PAZ054.
NJ...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ013>027.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ001.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ007-
008.
DE...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for DEZ001>004.
MD...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Robertson
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...Robertson
LONG TERM...Robertson
AVIATION...OHara/Robertson
MARINE...Hoeflich/Robertson
FIRE WEATHER...Dodd/Hoeflich