Flooding and High Wind in Nevada, March 14 to 16, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
246 AM PDT Tue Mar 14 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Valley rain and mountain snow are expected today and
tonight along with strong gusty winds and warmer temperatures,
bringing continued flooding concerns. A cold front Wednesday
morning will cool temperatures and slow snowmelt as drier air
moves in. Additional chances for precipitation return late in the
weekend after a short drying period.

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.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night

The next warm AR event is poised to move across the state today
and tonight. Showers will begin in Humboldt County early this
morning and then will spread eastward throughout the day,
continuing tonight. Snow levels that are currently around 5500
feet in northern Nevada and 6500 feet in central Nevada will be
steadily rising throughout the day until they peak around 8000 to
8500 feet later this afternoon and evening. Therefore, valleys
will be seeing all rain today into tonight. In general, rainfall
rates will be fairly light, though showers are expected to be more
persistent north of I80 in Humboldt and Elko County, and
therefore rainfall through Wednesday there will be 0.25 inches to
0.50 inches, with some localized amounts of up to 1" of liquid in
spots. Elsewhere south of I80, amounts of 0.10 to 0.25 are
expected. Isolated thunder is also possible late this afternoon
into tonight in the eastern half of Nevada, which could drop a
brief heavier shower just about anywhere. Southerly winds will be
on the increase through the day and will become strong this
afternoon into the overnight hours, especially in higher
elevations. Wind Advisories remain in effect through tonight. The
rain and rain on snow as well as the strong winds will further
accelerate snowmelt below 8000 feet and a Flood Watch is in effect
through Wednesday night for much of northern and central Nevada.
Please see the Hydrology section below for more details. Highs
today will be in the 40's and 50's.

A cold front will begin to move into Humboldt County after midnight
tonight and will slowly move eastward across the state overnight
and through Wednesday morning. This will return snow levels back
to the valleys floors. However, since most precipitation is
expected to fall pre-frontal, most valleys that get snow on
Wednesday will see less than 1" of accumulation, with perhaps some
isolated spots of 1-2". NW winds will be gusty on Wednesday
afternoon in the normal spots that are susceptible to downsloping
of NW winds. Highs will be in the mid 30's to mid 40's in
northern Nevada with lower 40's to lower 50's in central Nevada
after a morning low in the 20's and 30's.

Colder lows Wednesday night are expected in the teens through the
mid 20's, with some single digits in the coldest valleys as the
system moves east, clouds clear out, and winds decrease.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday. Model ensembles are
showing increasing agreement and confidence in cool and dry
conditions across the CWA on Thursday as weak ridging builds in
from the west. Temperatures warm a couple degrees from Thursday
into Friday, though highs will still be around 10 degrees below
normal. Ensembles are also trending toward a dry solution across
the CWA on Friday. Uncertainty in ensembles remains over the
region Saturday into early next week. At this time NBM has light
showers with only a few hundredths of an inch of possible
precipitation mainly over mountains Friday night into Saturday.
The NBM has a little more precipitation over the region Sunday,
though still generally less than five hundredth of an inch of QPF
to valleys and less than a tenth of an inch of QPF to mountains.
Fortunately temperatures are expected to remain below normal
through the long term period, which will help to slow the snow
melt.

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.AVIATION.... VFR conditions overnight will turn to MVFR conditions
tomorrow morning for KWMC, KEKO, KBAM and KELY as rain and snow
showers return. Periods of IFR and MVFR conditions are possible
during periods of heavier precipitation at these sites. Winds will
be breezy tomorrow too. VFR to MVFR conditions are expected tomorrow
at KTPH with periods of afternoon IFR conditions tomorrow too. KEKO
remains AMD NOT SKED.

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.HYDROLOGY...Another warm AR event will be moving across northern
and central Nevada today through tonight. This will bring warmer
temperatures, rain, rain on snow, and strong gusty winds, which
will accelerate snowmelt further in valleys and the mid slopes.
Flood Watches remain in effect through Wednesday night as areas
of overland flooding, ponding of water on roads, and muddy roads
are likely. Continued rises of rivers, streams, and creeks will
also be occurring. While no river flooding is forecast at this
time, rises into minor flood stage are a possibility in these
types of scenarios, so please make sure to not cross any rising
water. Turn around, Don't drown! A cold front on Wednesday
morning will bring cooler temperatures which will begin to slow
the snowmelt. However, additional systems are possible this
weekend into next week as the active pattern continues.

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.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM PDT Wednesday
Humboldt County...Northeastern Nye County...Northern Elko
County...Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County...
Northwestern Nye County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt
Range...South Central Elko County...Southeastern Elko County...
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County...Southwest
Elko County...White Pine County.

Flood Watch from 5 AM PDT early this morning through Wednesday
evening Northeastern Nye County...Northern Elko County...
Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County...Northwestern
Nye County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range...South
Central Elko County...Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka
County...Southwest Elko County...White Pine County.

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