NWS Las Vegas, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 10, 2:45 AM PST, 2 hours 45 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 10, 2:45 AM PST, 2 hours 45 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
245 AM PST Fri Mar 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS...Rain and high elevation snow will continue in the
Sierra and Owens Valley today. Scattered showers will spread
eastward as well with only very light precipitation amounts
expected outside of the higher terrain and the Spring Mountains.
Gusty winds will be on the increase as well especially across the
Mojave Desert and Arizona Strip. Improving conditions are
expected over the weekend but another storm system will move in by
the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...through Saturday night.
Atmospheric river event is well underway across California this
morning as a deep and anomalous moisture tap remains aimed at the
Pacific Coast. Precipitation has been spilling over the Sierra
Crest with Bishop picking up 0.25" as of midnight and Oak Creek
RAWS up to 0.75". Lighter amounts of a tenth of an inch or less
have spread as far east as the Cottonwood Mountains and Panamint
Range in Inyo County as well as western Esmeralda County around
Dyer. Expecting more of the same for the coming 24 hours with the
moisture hose aimed at the central and southern Sierra. The
ongoing flood watch remains in good shape with rain falling on a
melting snow pack and saturated soils which will both add to
hydrological concerns in the area.
Further east, conditions have remained dry thus far but
anticipating that will change in the coming hours as the
atmospheric profile moistens up from the top down. With rich
moisture of a tropical origin overspreading the region, any
terrain barriers in the way will be favored to pick up
precipitation, mainly in the form of rain as snow levels climb to
near 10k feet. High resolution guidance remains bullish on
precipitation amounts in the Spring Mountains, with the HREF/HRRR
suggesting 3-4" of rainfall falling today near the Spring Mountain
Ridgeline and Kyle Canyon. While deep snowpack in the area will
absorb some of this rainfall, the added moisture content and warm
airmass invading the area will work to increase the rate of snow
melt, especially in the elevations below 7000 feet where the snow
pack is a bit thinner. Enhanced runoff and streamflow should be
anticipated around the Spring Mountains today and tomorrow and
localized flood concerns are possible in especially sensitive
drainages.
Outside of the mountain terrain, despite the abundance of
moisture, only very light precipitation amounts are expected due
to the lack of stronger dynamic forcing moving through. However,
guidance has trended a little wetter today as the primary moisture
plume moves through. It now appears more conceivable that a few
hundredths of an inch may fall into the lower Desert terrain as
well, mainly north of I-40, and rainfall chances have increased
for this possibility.
Rain chances will dwindle for most of the forecast area by 10 pm
tonight, but lingering rain chances will continue around the
Sierra and Owens Valley into Sunday morning.
Outside of the rain chances, still expecting strong winds to
increase through the morning hours. In fact, winds have already
begun to gust above 60 mph near Kyle Canyon and Angel Peak in the
Spring Mountains. Downslope winds in the Las Vegas Valley will be
a concern as well, enhancing the wind speeds in the western and
southern parts of town where gusts exceeding 50 mph are suggested
by current high resolution guidance. These winds will ease later
this evening, but remain breezy into Saturday.
.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday.
Sunday and Monday look like a break in the atmospheric river
action, with zonal flow transitioning to flat ridging and limiting
precip chances to the Sierra and the northern fringes of the CWA,
with minimal to no impact expected. Expect locally gusty westerly
winds in the favored terrain areas such as Barstow and the
Sierra, but not looking like advisory level at this time.
The next AR is still targeting our area Tuesday and Wednesday. On
the positive side, snow levels look a bit lower, hovering around
8000 feet during the heaviest precipitation, and dropping to 5000
to 6000 feet on the back side of the storm. Another round of very
heavy precip is likely for the Sierra, with liquid equivalent
totals of about six inches at the crest. Snow ratios around 12:1
would suggest about six feet of snow at the crest, with a bit less
at the resort level. Barring a significant change in either storm
track or snow levels, Winter Storm Warnings will be needed. Low
pressure passing by to the north on Wednesday (a bit slower than
in previous model runs) should generate enough forcing for some
light precip in the deserts.
There is quite a bit of model spread for Thursday, with solutions
ranging from ridging overhead in the wake of the storm to low
pressure lingering overhead for one more day. Regardless,
impactful weather looks unlikely. Of note, Monday and Tuesday
could be the warmest days since about November 1st for much of the
Mojave Desert. This will promote more mountain snow melt,
possibly keeping creeks and rivers swollen.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will increase out of the
southwest by early afternoon, with a few gusts to 35kts possible
during the afternoon. The current forecast has winds decreasing
slightly and remaining southwest overnight. However, some model
guidance is now indicating a more significant wind decrease after
06Z, as well as a turn more to the south and south-southeast. If
this trend continues, future forecasts may need to be adjusted. A
few showers in the vicinity of the terminal will be possible this
morning and again early this evening. However, most of the
precipitation is expected to stay mainly west of the airfield,
closer to the Spring Mountains. CIGs will hover between 4kft and
6kft through tonight before gradually improving Saturday morning.
Mountain obscuration is likely near the airfield today due to low
clouds and precipitation.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...A storm system will result in areas of precipitation,
gusty winds, and at times low CIGs across the region today. The
most significant impacts are expected at KBIH, where periods of rain
are expected into Saturday, as well as CIGs hovering around 2kft.
Mountain obscuration is also likely near the field. Scattered
showers are also possible at KDAG late this afternoon and evening,
although gusty southwest winds up to 40kts this afternoon will be
the primary concern. Winds will be mainly southerly at KEED and
KIFP, with gusts to 25kts possible this afternoon, followed by
lighter winds overnight. While primarily dry conditions are
expected at these sites, a few showers will be possible late this
afternoon. Other than KBIH, CIGs between 4kft and 8kft can be
expected through the TAF period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
SHORT TERM...Outler
LONG TERM...Morgan
AVIATION...Planz
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