Heavy Snow in Nevada, March 1 to 2, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
211 PM PST Tue Feb 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...The active pattern continues as snow showers return to
northern Nevada this afternoon and spread to central Nevada by the
later part of the afternoon and early evening. An "on-and-off"
pattern takes hold as a dry lull settles in for Wednesday night and
Thursday morning before a few light showers clip northern Nevada
Thursday evening.

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.SHORT TERM...Tonight through early THursday morning

Current radar shows light snow showers already returning to portions
of Humboldt and northern Elko counties. Shower activity spreads
across northern Nevada first this afternoon, followed by central
Nevada during the later afternoon/early evening hours. Between 10 PM
and midnight is when we expect snow to taper off in northern Nevada,
with snowfall continuing in central Nevada through tomorrow
afternoon and evening. Valley totals look to range from anywhere
along the lines of 1 to 3 inches in lower valleys, 3 to 6 inches in
higher valleys, and 6+ inches in the higher passes and mountains. A
few lingering showers tomorrow may put an additional dusting on top
of all of this. Winds continue to range from 15 to 25 mph with gusts
at times up to 45 mph. This will lead to blowing and drifting snow
as well as reduced visibility, creating hazardous travel conditions.
This also looks to line up with the evening commute, so anyone
traveling this evening should take their time and use caution.

Tomorrow sees main snow shower activity in northeastern Nye county
and White Pine county where 2" to 6+" are possible, but otherwise
lingering snow showers tomorrow may only add an additional dusting
of snow to accumulations.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday.

Finally! A day without snow and strong winds are in store for
Thursday. However, cold temperatures are expected rising from near
0 across many valleys Thursday morning to the 20s and 30s for
highs across the area. Alas, this calmer weather will be short-
lived as a weak upper-level wave moves through northern Nevada
early Friday brining light snow to much of central and eastern
Nevada. Cloudy skies will prevail Saturday ahead of the next
incoming wave of snow into the Great Basin beginning late
Saturday.

The next appreciably impactful weather feature is expected Sunday
and Monday with more widespread snow possible across the area.
Confidence in the overall synoptic setup for an active, colder weather
pattern across the western U.S. is suprisingly high. Details such
as snow amounts and timing will evolve but ensemble and
probabilistic guidance continue to indicate this active pattern
setup. With the elevated and in some cases record snowpack across
the area, attention to warming events and rain on snow events
affecting accelerated snowmelt will be heightened going forward.
Fortunately, rapid warming is not expected at least in the next
week or so.

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.AVIATION...The next wave of snow is headed into northern Nevada
this evening and eventually central Nevada. Expect lowering CIGs,
onset of snow showers with reductions in VIS in heavier snow
showers across northern Nevada this evening. Winds and blowing
snow will continue to be an issue through this evening with
southwest winds of 10-20 knots with gusts around 30 knots at
times. The heaviest SHSN at KWMC, KBAM and KEKO is expected to be
in the 02Z to 08Z time frame bringing occasional IFR conditions.
Snow exiting Elko county around 09Z resulting in improving
aviation conditions for tonight. Snow could affect KELY through
13Z as the cold front moves into central Nevada late tonight.

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.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday Humboldt
County...Northern Elko County...Northern Lander County and
Northern Eureka County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt
Range...South Central Elko County...Southern Lander County and
Southern Eureka County...Southwest Elko County.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST Wednesday White Pine
County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday
Northeastern Nye County...Northwestern Nye County.

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