Damaging Winds and High Wind in Nevada, June 1, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
343 AM PDT Thu Jun 1 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected across much of the region today. Any
stronger storms that may develop will have the potential to
produce a quarter to a half inch of rain. Friday and Saturday the
focus of thunderstorms will shift more toward east-central
Nevada.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night. Thunderstorms will
develop across most of northern and central Nevada today. Any
stronger storms that may develop will have the potential to
produce a quarter to a half an inch or more of rain (or small
hail), making ponding of water a concern, along with increasing
chances of flooding or debris flows in mountains such as the
Ruby's where significant high elevation snow pack remains. Weak
ridging begins to push in from the west on Friday which will
diminish thunderstorm activity across the western half of the CWA
to only isolated. Central and eastern portions of the CWA will see
isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Friday, with highest QPF
over the mountains of the Great Basin National Park in SE White
Pine County where a quarter of an inch or more of rain can be
expected in stronger cells. Showers end across the CWA Friday
night.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday night. Long wave
troughing will remain established over the western US as a
blocking pattern over the eastern US continues through the period.
Models solutions continue to show that this block will drift
westward toward the central plains by the end of the period which
may add potential new trend in a very repetitive and stagnate
pattern. With nothing to unseat the current pattern, unsettled
conditions will continue through the long term period as a series
of upper lows cycling through the long wave pattern bring
precipitation to the silver state. Saturday the large upper low
will be stalling over the UT/CO border. Meanwhile, another upper
trough drops southwest over the Pacific NW. For the next several
day these features will be cycling through the broad scale
longwave trough pattern over the west. Each low will slowly drop
south along the CA coast, moving inland lifting ENE before
stalling over the Great basin region as it runs into the blocked
flow over the central and eastern US. With upper troughing of some
form basically overhead throughout the period, chances of showers
and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening for
NE and C NV. Daily temperatures will be cloud and precipitation
dependent, but generally daytime highs will range in the lower 70s
to mid 80s. Overnight lows, thanks to residual cloud cover and
light winds will range in the lower 40s to low 50s. As the block
starts to drift westward in the Sunday to next Wednesday time
frame. While troughing will remain overhead, the heights in the
upper levels will be rising in response to the approaching
ridging. This means that temperatures may warm slightly toward the
end of the long term while precipitation chances remain.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms develop around 18Z Thursday
and continue through the afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...River and stream flows remain high and swift as
snowpack continues to melt from central and northern Nevada
mountains. The active weather pattern will persist this week,
with afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms.
Probabilities remain low that any given thunderstorm will cause
increased hydrologic impacts. Smaller creeks like Lamoille will
see diurnal fluctuations, but larger rivers that are slower
responding will continue to run high through the week.

Flood Warnings are in effect for the following rivers:
   * Humboldt River at Comus (Moderate Flooding)
   * Humboldt River at Battle Mountain (Moderate Flooding)
   * Humboldt River at Carlin (Minor Flooding)

Flood Advisories are in effect for the following:
   * Humboldt River at Elko
   * Lamoille Creek
   * Marys River at Deeth
   * Humboldt River at Palisade

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

96/98/86