Flash Flood and Hail in Texas, June 1 to 4, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
436 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
Issued at 435 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

Radar imagery shows a complex of storms across the central and northern
Big Country slowly moving east, while an isolated severe storm
has developed in Borden county along a slow moving outflow
boundary in that area. SPC mesoanalysis indicates 25-30 KT of
effective bulk shear and around 1000 J/KG of ML CAPE in the
central and northern Big Country. Thus, as the aforementioned
complex of storms continues to move east across the central and
northern Big Country over the next few hours, it could produce
marginally severe hail, as well as heavy rain and increased
flooding concerns. However, the better chance for severe
thunderstorms will be related to surface based convection forming
along the previously mentioned outflow boundary between 6 and 10
pm across the western Big Country (Fisher and Nolan counties where
there is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch). In this area, effective
shear is expected to increase to 45-50 KT, with ML CAPE increasing
to 1000-1500 J/KG and effective Storm Relative Helicity increasing
to 50-100 m2/s2. Despite the better shear and instability, the
20Z run of the WoFS model doesn't show much outflow boundary
related severe convection reaching the western Big Country this
evening. The HRRR seems to be more aggressive in the severe
potential for those counties. Neither model seems to have
initialized the current location/strength of the storms too well,
so confidence is low on their solutions. Nevertheless, given the
shear and instability, the main threats for the western Big
Country this evening appears to be large to very large hail, with
a low threat of damaging winds or tornado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

A large area of showers and thunderstorms is located across the
South Plains, to the north of Snyder. This complex is slowly
advancing east, with additional development to the south of the
complex, as an outflow boundary tracks slowly southward. This
activity is forecast to spread east across the Big Country this
afternoon and into the evening hours. There is some uncertainty on
just how far south convection will develop, but at this point, the
highest rain chances look to remain north of I-20, although at least
isolated to scattered storms are possible across southern portions
of the Big Country (south of I-20). A few storms could become strong
to severe, with large hail and damaging winds being the main
concern, although a tornado is also possible. In addition, locally
heavy rainfall is possible, which may result in flooding. Most of
this activity should begin to dissipate by late this evening, with
drier conditions anticipated by Friday morning. Expect overnight
lows in the upper 60s.

On Friday, a dryline is forecast to advance east into the Trans-
Pecos region and Permian Basin by mid to late afternoon. An
increasingly unstable environment is forecast ahead of the dryline
and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
develop along the dryline by mid afternoon. Supercells are likely,
with the possibility of very large hail and damaging winds, along
with a possible tornado. These storms are forecast to track east
into our western counties by mid to late afternoon. Highs on Friday
will remain below normal, generally in the upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

Rain chances will continue each day through the extended as an
unsettled weather pattern continues.

Another round of afternoon thunderstorms will be possible on
Saturday as a weak ridge develops to the west with a trough to
the east. The main threat on Saturday will be heavy rainfall.
Rain continues into Sunday, with the best chance of heavy rain
across the western half of the area, as weak flow aloft combines
with abundant low level moisture. By next work week, an upper low
lingers off the western coast of the US with weak flow aloft over
Texas. We will see a series of weak disturbances in the southeast
flow off the Gulf of Mexico, with a slight chance of diurnally
driven thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. With abundant
moisture and increased cloud cover, expect early June temperatures
to be on the mild side with afternoon highs in the mid to upper
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

VFR ceilings have returned to all sites early this afternoon.
Stratus will result in MVFR ceilings at the southern 3 sites early
Friday morning. The stratus will approach KSJT, but confidence
remains low that it will reach the terminal, so have kept KSJT VFR
for now. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening at KABI,
so have included thunder in the TAF. Southeast winds of 10 to 15
knots will decrease to 5 to 12 knots this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     68  88  63  85 /  20  20  70  30
San Angelo  69  90  64  87 /   0  20  60  40
Junction    68  89  65  88 /   0   0  20  20
Brownwood   67  90  64  89 /  10   0  40  20
Sweetwater  68  87  62  83 /  20  40  80  40
Ozona       68  86  65  84 /   0  20  40  40
Brady       67  88  64  87 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...Daniels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
241 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-021945-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
241 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will be possible across the Big Country late this
afternoon and evening, mainly north of Interstate 20. A few storms
could be strong to severe. The main hazards will be large hail
and damaging winds, although a tornado is also possible. In
addition, locally heavy rainfall may result in flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms will be possible across the area Friday afternoon
and evening. Some of the storms may be severe west of a Coleman to
Junction line. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging
winds, although a tornado is also possible. In addition, locally
heavy rainfall may result in flooding. Scattered thunderstorms
will be possible through early next week, which may result in
localized flooding. Any thunderstorms that occur will produce
dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation may be needed this evening. Spotter
activation may be needed Friday afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
359 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

TXZ049-113-012145-
Fisher TX-Jones TX-
359 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Jones
and northeastern Fisher Counties through 445 PM CDT...

At 358 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Roby, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail. Heavy
         rainfall up to 3/4 inch is also possible.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hamlin, Roby, Sylvester, Neinda, Mccaulley, Hitson and Tuxedo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3267 10037 3296 10045 3296 9991 3284 9992
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 242DEG 30KT 3279 10033

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
440 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

TXZ113-012215-
Jones TX-
440 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Jones
County through 515 PM CDT...

At 439 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
The Intersection Of Us-
180 And Ranch Road 126, or near Neinda, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stamford, Anson, Hamlin, Avoca, Neinda, Funston, The Intersection Of
Us-180 And Ranch Road 126, Tuxedo and The Intersection Of Us-
180 And Farm Road 600.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 9966 3269 9967 3269 10014 3271 10015
      3280 10014 3296 10011
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 267DEG 21KT 3277 10004

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

mkd