Drought in Nebraska, June 1 to 30, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1227 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

...Updated Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023

Key Messages:

- Precipitation chances increase late week into the weekend

- High temperatures coolest in the southwest part of the state
  where precipitation chances are best and cloud cover will be
  persistent

- Although precipitation chances will exist next week, a trend
  toward less coverage and slightly warmer temperatures is
  expected

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023

Plenty of insolation across the area today yielding temps in the
upper 70s to lower 80s for the most part. The upper level flow is
rather weak across the central High Plains today as an upper low
churns over the tri-state area of CA/AZ/NV. As the upper level flow
strengthens across the Rockies through the afternoon, the low
level flow will respond to the lowering pressures with southerly
winds increasing across the southwest into Panhandle areas.
However, with primarily weak wind fields in the low levels, upper
level forcing will focus primarily on areas of higher terrain
further west, and resultant outflow boundaries from prior
convection which currently reside south of the area. All of this
to say confidence is low on precipitation development in our area
this evening, but instead will wait for any convection to move
into the area from the areas mentioned previously. As the
atmosphere cools with sunset, a LLJ is expected to develop
although somewhat modest. This advection of warm and slightly
unstable air aloft may help to sustain any precipitation past
sunset, mainly in the southwest portion of the state and low
chances will be kept there.

For Thursday...with southerly flow aloft increasing and better
organized convection ongoing further south would expect fairly
significant mid and high level cloudiness across especially the
southern half of the state. This will slow the warming at least for
the start of the day with more insolation possible by afternoon.
There will be somewhat better support aloft for large scale ascent
with increasing southerly flow aloft by afternoon, as well as the
responding increasing winds in the low levels. With a lack of low
level convergence or well defined boundary, would expect initial
thunderstorm development to once again be in the higher terrain
further west. What remains unknown is the extent of convection
across KS tonight and what outflow and resultant forcing can come
from that. Moisture, however, won't be a problem as the southerly
flow should allow precipitable water values to increase into the
90th percentile for this time of year. Therefore decent
instability in place as well with the areas of insolation yielding
locations that can realize that potential better. Afternoon highs
should be warmest in the north where insolation should be better.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023

Any thunderstorms late Thursday should be sustained by a decent LLJ
overnight into Friday morning, especially across central NE.
After a bit of a lull by late morning, would expect good upper
level forcing will again be able to focus convection on any
resultant outflow boundaries from previous convection which, while
difficult to pin down a location, does still yield medium
confidence in the potential for thunderstorms across area. With
the upper level low still parked to the west of the area,
individual upper PV anomalies will rotate through the flow
providing larger scale lift to focus convergence along the
aforementioned low level boundaries. Cloud cover will likely limit
heating in portions of the west and south, so would again expect
the highest temps in the northern portion of the area. Saturday
could result in a similar progression of features although the
upper low is expected to weaken and fill and the various ensemble
systems show a weakening influence from this system. However with
plenty of moisture in place there would still be good potential
for more widespread showers with a few rumbles of thunder. This
will again limit temps in the south and western portion of the
area.

Precipitation chances lessen by the start of the week as the upper
pattern transitions to an upper ridge located over central Canada,
with a developing and quite anomalous upper low evolving across the
northeastern states by mid week. Western and north central NE will
be caught in between with a general weaker upper flow which would
make organized convection potential low. Assuming this is associated
with lesser cloud cover, temps across the area should recover to
closer to average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

The area of showers and thunderstorms across srn KS/OK Panhandle
will move north and weaken as it approaches srn Nebraska around
12z this morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected throughout the day across wrn and ncntl Nebraska as this
disturbance continues moving north.

A second area of showers and thunderstorms is possible tonight.
This flight concern is associated with a developing disturbance
across swrn TX, also forecast to move north.

Otherwise, VFR ceilings and vsbys should prevail overnight through
Thursday evening across wrn and ncntl Nebraska.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Stoppkotte
SHORT TERM...Stoppkotte
LONG TERM...Stoppkotte
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
232 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-011945-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
232 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 /132 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This evening an tonight.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible across
portions of western and north central Nebraska this evening. Any
strong storms that do develop have the potential to produce locally
heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Though unsettled weather continues for Thursday into the weekend
with daily thunderstorm chances, the widespread severe weather
threat appears low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please report any hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall to the
National Weather Service.