Heavy Snow and High Wind in Nevada, February 21 to 22, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
222 PM PST Mon Feb 20 2023

.SYNOPSIS...A strong cold front will bring snow, strong winds,
and blowing snow to Nevada on Tuesday and Wednesday as colder air
returns. Chances for light snow showers continue at times through
the week.

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.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Wednesday afternoon

Warming temperatures continue today, with many valleys reaching
into the 40's and 50's and even nearing 60 in Winnemucca and
Tonopah at this time. Lows are expected to be in the 20's and
30's, with perhaps some leftover teens in the coldest valleys.
Winds will be on the increase in northern Nevada during the
overnight hours, especially in higher elevations where they will
become increasingly gusty.

The warming will be short lived as a dynamic weather system is still
on track to drop down into the western U.S. on Tuesday morning. A
strong cold front will move through Nevada on Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Snow levels start off around 4800 to 5200 feet in northern
Nevada and 6200 to 6800 feet in central Nevada, but will drop
rapidly as the cold front moves through, so any lower valleys that
start off with rain or a rain/snow mix will see some snow behind
the front. The system is able to tap into some Pacific moisture,
especially in White Pine County, and a Winter Storm Warning is
in effect for Tuesday through Wednesday as 4-10" of snow is
expected in valleys and up to 14" in the mountains. The Ruby
mountains have also been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning.
Elsewhere, Winter Weather Advisories are in effect (except for
Humboldt County) for 1" to 4" of snow in valleys and 4" to 6"
possible in some higher valleys such as Spring Creek and Austin on
Tuesday through Wednesday (with higher amounts in the mountains).
Gusty west to northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50
mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow and have been
covered within the Winter products. A Wind Advisory remains in
effect for Humboldt County for Tuesday. All products have been
adjusted to begin 3 hours earlier than the previous products due
to the latest model trends accelerating the storm's arrival a
bit. Models also indicate some very marginal instability present
and there is a 10% chance for a few lightning strikes along the
front on Tuesday, so this was added to the forecast. Early highs
will be in the mid 30's to mid 40's on Tuesday before plummeting
behind the cold front. The exception will be in northern Nye
County, which will be pre-frontal through much of the day and
will rise into the mid 50's in the warmest valleys. Colder lows
Tuesday night will be in the mid single digits through the mid
teens.

The trof remains in the West through Wednesday, which will bring
additional snow showers as well as blowing and drifting snow as
northwest winds remain gusty. Showers will be more isolated to
scattered with will lower snowfall rates, though drifting of snow
back onto roadways could delay the improvement of road impacts.
Highs will only be in the 20's for most of the area, though
Humboldt County could see some highs into the mid 30's.

.LONG TERM... Thursday to next Monday

A low pressure system will move down the Pacific Coast later this
week causing a series of troughs to move through northern Nevada
through the weekend. Scattered snow showers and continued below
seasonal temperatures are expected with this setup. Daytime
temperatures will range from the upper 20s to lower 30s Thursday
through Saturday. Warmer air could move over the area Sunday
causing temperatures to rise in to the 40s before another chance
of snow returns early next week. Lows in the single digits to
teens are expected in northern Nevada through early next week.

Central Nevada: Confidence remains high that the coastal low will
trek inland south of central Nevada and bring accumulating snowfall
to the valley locations of northern Nye and White Pine counties
Thursday afternoon through Friday evening.  Breezy to windy
conditions will accompany this snowfall resulting in blowing snow
and reduced visibilities. Wind gusts ranging from 25 to 35 mph with
higher gusts in the mountains and passes are likely. Areas nearest
Tonopah and southern White Pine county have the greatest chance of
wind gusts exceeding 34 kts; 60% to 80% in Tonopah, 40% in both Ely
and Austin Thursday through Friday. The percentage chance of wind
gusts exceeding 47 mph is 60% in Tonopah and 20% in both Austin
and Ely. Valley snowfall accumulations during this time frame
range from 1 to 4 inches but higher amounts are possible in the
mountains. A 20% to 40% chance exists for Ely to receive 2 to 4
inches of snowfall with an 8% to 30% chance for Tonopah to receive
2 to 4 inches. In its wake, scattered snow showers will continue
into Saturday evening. Daytime temperatures through Saturday will
range from the lower to upper 30s in White Pine county and the
lower 30s to 40 in northern Nye county. A weak ridge will build
Sunday ahead of another round of unsettled weather returns.

.AVIATION...VFR to MVFR conditions are expected over the 24
hour period at KWMC, KBAM, KEKO, and KELY as a trough brings
lowering CIGs, expanding rain and snow showers and reduced
visibility through the time period. Gusty west-southwest winds will
shift to the northwest throughout the day Tuesday as the cold front
pushes through the state. Wind gusts of 30-35 knots are expected at
all TAF sites.

AMD NOT SKED for KWMC until further notice.

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.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Tuesday Humboldt County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 4 AM PST Wednesday
Northern Elko County...Northern Lander County and Northern
Eureka County...South Central Elko County...Southeastern Elko
County...Southwest Elko County.

Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Tuesday to 4 PM PST Wednesday
Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range...White Pine County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 10 AM PST Wednesday
Northeastern Nye County...Northwestern Nye County...Southern
Lander County and Southern Eureka County.

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