NWS Las Vegas, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 21, 12:58 PM PST, 6 hours 32 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 21, 12:58 PM PST, 6 hours 32 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1258 PM PST Tue Feb 21 2023
.SYNOPSIS...Winds will increase this afternoon and peak tonight as a
powerful cold front rushes through the region. In addition to the
high winds, snow will impact mainly Lincoln and Mohave counties plus
the Clark County mountains tonight and Wednesday morning. Winds will
subside Wednesday night, but quickly return to southerly on Thursday
as the next storm approaches. This storm will bring heavy snow to
many major travel corridors Friday through Sunday, including
Interstate 15 over Mountain Pass and Highway 395 through the Owens
Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM...through Wednesday night. Midday satellite loop showed
the long-advertised storm system diving south into northwest Nevada.
Surface winds were responding, with spotty gusts over 40 mph
occurring from the eastern Sierra slopes down to Joshua Tree. The
strong winds will continue to fill in and increase as the afternoon
wears on, and the worst winds are still expected tonight. Gusts over
60 mph will be widespread from Barstow and Yucca Valley through Las
Vegas, with gusts over 80 mph possible where mountain waves come
into play, such as on the west side of the Las Vegas Valley. No
changes to the ongoing High Wind Warnings or social media messaging.
As the cold front blasts through, snow levels will crash overnight.
The best chances for significant snow will be in the higher terrain
of Lincoln and Mohave counties, as well as in the Spring Mountains.
Snow will likely also be seen at lower elevations, including Las
Vegas, with no accumulations expected. The ongoing winter headlines
look good, and partners in the Spring Mountains have been notified.
This wave of precip chances will be over by about midday Wednesday,
and winds will also be settling down by then, except perhaps in
western San Bernardino County. High temperatures Wednesday will be
15 to 25 degrees colder areawide than today. KLAS did reach 70
degrees today for the first time in 2023, but will struggle to get
above 50 tomorrow.
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday.
The active weather pattern will continue through the longer term
period as a broad and anomalous trough carved out across the West
begins to consolidate while it closes off somewhere over central
California. How far west this closed system develops and its
overwater residency time will ultimately dictate precipitation
chances associated with it, but overall the outlook continues to
favor a more moisture rich storm system moving through the area
during the Friday-Saturday timeframe. Meanwhile, the cold airmass
that will overspread the region midweek will only slowly moderate
ahead of the return flow of moisture, which could allow for some low
elevation snow accumulations depending on timing and some finer
scale mesoscale details. Best chances for this would be above 4000
feet which could impact some mountain passes and travel corridors,
while light snow accumulations down to 3000 feet could be a
possibility as well. For now, details remain in flux but keep an
eye on the forecasts as details become more clear.
Thereafter, an active storm track will remain aimed at the West
Coast with additional periods of unsettled weather likely. This
jives well with the 8-14 day official CPC outlook which calls for
elevated probabilities of colder and wetter than normal conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Strong winds will be the primary
concern for the next 24 hours or so as a potent system moves
through. Southwest winds will ramp up through the afternoon, peaking
in the evening and overnight hours as downsloping maximizes in the
Las Vegas Valley. Wind gusts of 45-55 knots are expected, with
values possibly up to 60+ knots. Some of the hi-res guidance depicts
a well-defined rotor this evening, positioned NW-SE of the valley.
The placement/existence of this feature will influence which parts
of the valley see the strongest winds. Should the rotor set up over
or west of the airfield, lighter surface winds but strong vertical
wind shear can be expected. A rotor axis just to the east would
likely bring the strongest southwest winds to the airport. Strong
winds around the region are expected to kick up dust, which will
lead to reduced visibility in the valley. Wind speeds should begin
to decrease after midnight, but remain gusty at around 30-40 knots
from a west-northwest direction. Around this time, the cold front
moves through, bringing CIGs around 8kft and some low precipitation
chances. This should last until sunrise when skies begin to clear
out. Gusty west winds continue tomorrow.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Strong southwest winds across the region today,
generally peaking during the evening and overnight hours. The
exception to this timing will be our Colorado River Valley sites,
with should peak Wednesday morning. Overall, expecting widespread
gusts of 40-50 knots, blowing dust, and turbulent conditions. The
most turbulent conditions are likely in the Owens and Las Vegas
Valleys, where mountain rotor development will be possible. KBIH,
KEED, and KIFP may be sheltered somewhat from the strongest
southwest winds given their placement in N-S orientated valleys, but
winds will be gusty at a minimum. It remains to be seen if KBIH will
experience any downslope winds, with latest hi-res guidance given
mixed signals. If downslope winds do not reach KBIH, weaker but
still gusty north-northwest winds are expected. TAF sites should
remain dry tonight, though the cold front will produce some showers
in the vicinity of KBIH and the Las Vegas Valley. Any precipitation
that does reach these TAF sites will be light. CIGs will drop to 6-
8kft during this time. Wind speeds begin to decrease tomorrow
morning (late morning for the Colorado River Valley), but will
remain gusty through the afternoon.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters should expect high winds
this afternoon through tonight/Wednesday morning. Please report any
wind damage or low visibility in blowing dust or sand. The greatest
areas of concern will be Inyo, Esmeralda, Nye, Clark, San
Bernardino, and Mohave counties.
&&
SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM...Outler
AVIATION...Woods
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