A cold front crossed central Pennsylvania during the afternoon of February 21, 2023, preceded by bands of gusty low-topped rain showers and thunderstorms, aided by steep lapse rates and appreciable deep-layer shear. Small (sub-severe) hail was also observed in some locations.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
A cold front crossed central Pennsylvania during the afternoon of February 21, 2023, preceded by bands of gusty low-topped rain showers and thunderstorms, aided by steep lapse rates and appreciable deep-layer shear. Small (sub-severe) hail was also observed in some locations.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 21, 12:27 PM EST, 1 hour 3 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1227 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 .SYNOPSIS... An active late winter pattern is forecast through the end of the week with a potpourri of weather elements to contend with including rain showers, a couple of thunderstorms, wintry precipitation, and windy conditions. A temperature roller coaster will add to the volatility with record warmth possible Thursday afternoon followed by a sharp drop in temperatures Thursday night into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1030 AM update: First batch of showers running an hour or two ahead of the real front. That front is into Warren Co, trailing back to KZZV. There is some instability out there per latest obs/sat pics and meso analysis. There could be a few snowflakes mixed in over the NE in the next hour before the air warms a little more. The tiny break in between the pre-frontal stuff and the front will be the most likely place for deep-ish convection to occur over the nrn half of the CWA. Expect some showers (maybe storms) to linger over the NE until the front passes. In the SE, the best instability may be more right with the showers moving thru JST/2G9 right now, which would be a little before the end of the showers over the NE. Interesting thing - the temps will likely go up after fropa in most of the area as we lose the clouds, mixing helps bring down the warmer air, and we have a few more minutes of daylight each day also helps. So, the cold front will be a warm front for many places - at least for a couple of hours. 7AM: Currently in the precip lull with brief clearing promoting fog formation in the south central valleys. Updated grids to add fog and increase temporal resolution of POPs through 18Z. No change in thinking regarding the uptick in convectively enhanced showers from west to east into the afternoon. In fact, the latest SPC D1 outlook shows an wwd expansion to the MRGL risk now encompassing most of the middle and lower Susquehanna Valley. Previous Discussion Issued: 511 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 Expect a brief precip lull in its wake early this morning before shower activity ramps up and expands west to east this afternoon along cold/occluded front pushing quickly eastward across CPA. Models indicate that boundary-layer warming and mixing with insolation along and east of the Allegheny Mountains, coupled with modest residual low-level moisture, may contribute to weak destabilization ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Beneath very cold mid-level air (500 mb temps at or below -30C), it appears that the environment may become conducive to scattered low-topped thunderstorms capable of producing small hail/graupel. Some of this activity, mainly across parts of eastern Pennsylvania, may also aid the downward transfer of momentum associated with 40-50+ kt west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, contributing to a risk for strong to locally damaging surface gusts during the mid to late afternoon hours. We expanded mention of slight chance T and added gusty wind attribute to the D1 SPC MRGL risk outlook area. Showers should move out of the eastern zones by later this eve/00Z. While CAA is relatively weak behind the cold front, fcst soundings indicate vigorous post-frontal mixing and dry air advection resulting in a quickly deepening boundary layer (steepening lapse rates) tapping 45-55kts of unidirectional WNW flow aloft. Therefore, we issued a wind advisory for the southern tier zones in coordination with PBZ and LWX. We also bumped up maxT/hourly T and lowered Td/minRH in kind. Winds will weaken into tonight as narrow sfc ridge passes through the CWA btwn 6-12Z. MinT should drop near or below the freezing mark overnight which sets the stage for some overrunning mixed precip on Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... WAA will be in full swing by early Wednesday morning with hires models in good agreement in spreading zone of overrunning precip from SW to NE across the area in the 14-20Z timeframe. Precip may come in a bit faster given anomalous southwesterly LLJ and impressive meridional moisture flux from the GOMEX into the retreating cold wedge. This should also drive a potent warm nose with 850mb temps >0 over most of the area around the onset with a tight thermal gradient over the northern tier of CPA/mainly north of I80. A band of snow/sleet looks most likely across the northern mtns with latest accums 0.5" or less. A glaze of ice from freezing rain is mostly likely over the higher elevations in the western and central Alleghenies with a transition to rain in most places by Wednesday night. Ice accretion rates over northern Pa will probably not be very high due to temperatures only just below freezing. However, can't rule out isolated 0.10" amounts over the highest elevations. Ground temps may also still be relatively warm from Tuesday. This could favor icing more on elevated surfaces that can cool faster Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Fcst precip amounts from this event based on WPC/NBM blend range from <0.10" over the southeast counties to around an inch over the NW Mtns. Temp trend should be steady to warmer (non diurnal) Wednesday night into Thursday and precede a potentially record setting day in the high temperature department. High confidence of unseasonably warm and perhaps record breaking daytime highs. (See climate section for daily record highs for 2/23). Temps should plummet late Thursday night into Friday behind a much colder and blustery NW wind. A very large temp swing on the order of 30-40 degrees is fcst from Thursday afternoon to Friday morning. Wind gusts could reach advisory criteria Thursday night and will include this in the HWO along with the midweek wintry mix. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Aside from some lake effect snow showers early, expect a much colder and dry end to the week with winds decreasing. By early in the weekend ahead, surface high moving off the east coast, and a return of moisture and UVVEL linked to respective left front and right rear quads of a very strong 160-170 KT 300 HPA zonal jet core (extending from the Upper Miss Valley through the southern New England Coast) will likely bring another period or two of rain or a wintry mix, depending on timing and the ultimate track of upper-level disturbances/surface waves. The best chance of precip is weighted toward Sunday/Sunday evening, though PYTPE is highly uncertain at this range given the large spread in 925-850 mb temps between the GFS and EC and their ensembles (about a 10C spread exists between the colder, faster and less amplified EC with respect to an approaching nrn stream shortwave at 12-18Z Sunday). && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... For the 18Z TAFS, line of showers still likely into BFD early. Main thing will be gusty winds to just after sunset. Clearing will be rather fast, given westerly flow of dry air. For Wednesday, looking at rain moving in during the morning. Guidance supports some chance of freezing rain for a brief time. Will leave freezing rain out of the southeast sites, expect these areas to be a bit warmer. Abnormally warm air aloft across the southeast states on Wednesday, extends into our area. Thus think risk for snow low, as mentioned above just a brief period of freezing rain and perhaps a bit of sleet. This based on this factor above. Outlook... Thu...Very warm. SHRA NW half. IFR poss AM. Thurs night...CFROPA, Gusty WNW wind. Brief IFR poss. Fri...Mainly VFR. Sat-Sun...SN to RA poss. IFR poss. Snow could linger into Sunday morning. && .CLIMATE... Record highs for Thursday 2/23: Harrisburg 75F/2017 Williamsport 70F/1985 Altoona 71F/1985 Bradford 60F/2017 State College 71F/2017 && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for PAZ024-025-033- 034. Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for PAZ026>028-035- 036-056-057-059-063>066. && SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Jurewicz/Lambert/Travis AVIATION...Martin CLIMATE...Steinbugl
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 549 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 PAZ026>028-035-036-056-057-063>065-221100- Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Cumberland- Adams-York- 549 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Wind gusts over 40 mph are likely Thursday night and Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ019-045-046-049>052-221100- Southern Centre-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder- Montour-Northumberland- 549 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Breezy conditions this afternoon could blow around unsecured items and result in difficult driving for high profile vehicles. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Wind gusts over 40 mph are likely Thursday night and Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ025-034-221100- Blair-Bedford- 549 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Wind gusts over 40 mph are likely Thursday night and Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-037-041-042-221100- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan- 549 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Breezy conditions this afternoon could blow around unsecured items and result in difficult driving for high profile vehicles. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. A light glaze of ice from freezing rain could cause locally hazardous travel conditions Wednesday especially on bridges, overpasses, and untreated secondary roads. Wind gusts over 40 mph are likely Thursday night and Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ024-033-221100- Cambria-Somerset- 549 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Wind gusts over 40 mph are likely Thursday night and Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ059-066-221100- Lebanon-Lancaster- 549 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. A few strong thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail are possible this afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Wind gusts over 40 mph are likely Thursday night and Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ053-058-221100- Columbia-Schuylkill- 549 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A few strong thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail are possible this afternoon. Breezy conditions this afternoon could blow around unsecured items and result in difficult driving for high profile vehicles. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Wind gusts over 40 mph are likely Thursday night and Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. MRS
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1225 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023
PAZ004-005-211800-
Warren PA-McKean PA-
1225 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WARREN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MCKEAN COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM EST...
At 1224 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Warren, moving east at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Warren, Kane, Sheffield, Wetmore, Ludlow, Marshburg, Westline,
Chapman State Park, Kinzua Dam, Warren South, Tidioute and Clarendon.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4181 7934 4186 7874 4163 7877 4162 7888
4163 7943
TIME...MOT...LOC 1724Z 264DEG 38KT 4172 7915
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ColbertSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1257 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023
PAZ046-211830-
Southern Lycoming PA-
1257 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL LYCOMING COUNTY
THROUGH 130 PM EST...
At 1256 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Montoursville, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Williamsport, Montoursville, Muncy, Hughesville, Duboistown,
Lairdsville, Loyalsockville, South Williamsport, Garden View, Picture
Rocks, Williamsport Airport and Little League World Series Complex.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4121 7661 4121 7707 4129 7702 4133 7691
4134 7669 4131 7661 4130 7657 4129 7652
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 267DEG 32KT 4129 7679
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ColbertSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1259 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023
PAZ017-211845-
Clearfield PA-
1259 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CLEARFIELD COUNTY
THROUGH 145 PM EST...
At 1259 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Clearfield, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Clearfield, Woodland, Hyde, Plymptonville, Karthaus, Lecontes Mills,
Morrisdale, Grassflat, Kylertown, Wallaceton and Clearfield-Lawrence
Airport.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4115 7850 4118 7806 4115 7804 4113 7806
4112 7811 4106 7809 4105 7806 4103 7808
4101 7806 4099 7809 4096 7808 4094 7812
4096 7817 4095 7816 4093 7818 4102 7856
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 267DEG 31KT 4106 7847
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ColbertSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
119 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023
PAZ042-046-053-211845-
Columbia PA-Southern Lycoming PA-Sullivan PA-
119 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL LYCOMING...NORTH
CENTRAL COLUMBIA AND SOUTHEASTERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM
EST...
At 119 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles north of Bloomsburg, moving east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Jamison City, Waller, Fairmount Spgs, Biggertown, Lairdsville,
Ricketts Glen State Park, Central and Muncy Valley.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4134 7629 4131 7631 4122 7632 4121 7662
4131 7663 4131 7660 4133 7663 4134 7663
4138 7628
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 266DEG 36KT 4128 7650
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ColbertThe State College radar (KCCX), 98 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:30 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A sub-severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 50 mph turned over a pavilion, moved sheds, and spread playsets and debris across yards along Mulberry Street in Montoursville.
A gusty rain shower produced winds estimated near 50 mph, causing the partial collapse of a garage that was under construction on Weikert Road a couple of miles east of the village of Weikert. One injury was reported.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down multiple trees to the northwest of Bloomsburg.
Gusty rain showers producing winds estimated near 50 mph knocked out power to more than 250 customers in the borough of Blossburg.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1071262, 1071263, 1071261, 1071265.