Heavy Snow in Nevada, February 10 to 11, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
231 AM PST Fri Feb 10 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A couple of cold weather systems are forecast to move through the
region tonight into Saturday and Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
Each system will bring periods of gusty winds and potential for
snow. The second half of next week should be dry, but another cold
weather system may move into the region for the start of the
holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Warm and borderline spring feel to our Friday will give way to a
cold slider weather system late this afternoon into Saturday.
Winds will increase today and could impact outdoor recreation
especially in the higher terrain as Sierra ridge winds increase to
50+ mph.

Cold-unstable air with limited moisture will slide into the
northern Sierra and northwest NV for this evening and tonight.
However forcing mechanisms may maximize the limited moisture into
localized snow bands with equal chances of accumulating snow for
the northern Sierra and northwest NV valleys. If everything
aligns, heavier snow bands may produce 3+ inches of snow tonight
and early Saturday AM. Simulations are rather chaotic with the
location of the snow bands ranging from the northern
Sierra/northeast CA to northwest NV. If you are out traveling
tonight and early Saturday, slick roads are possible. Snow showers
may linger into Saturday PM for the eastern Sierra into western
NV south of US-50. Brong

.LONG TERM...

On Sunday into early Monday, the upper level low will kick out
into AZ, while a short-wave ridge moves through the region ahead
of our next system. Temperatures will remain up to 5 degrees below
average on Sunday, but with lighter winds. Monday will give us a
quick taste of spring as high temperatures rise well into the 50s
in western NV and northeastern CA. Even several locations in the
Sierra will reach into the mid to upper 40s. These readings are
slightly above average for mid-February and in terms of this
winter season, a heat wave! Enjoy these warm temperatures and
lighter winds while you can since it will not last for long.

The next weather system is still poised to move into the region late
Monday afternoon and track southward through the area by Tuesday
morning. Depending on the track of the upper level trough (still
uncertain in timing/location), there is the potential for a band
of heavy snowfall along the advancing cold front. A difference of
50 miles east or west in the position of the trough definitely
creates a boom or bust rain/snowfall scenario, especially for
western NV. Models and the respective ensembles are showing this
system continuing to dig the central Great Basin on Tuesday, then
eject into the four-corners by Wednesday. While there is less
certainty into precipitation, there is increasing confidence that
high temperatures will plummet by as much as 25 degrees on
Tuesday. Temperatures will struggle to rebound through Thursday,
staying below freezing in the high country and in the low 30s in
western NV/NE CA.

&&

.AVIATION...

Increasing winds and mountain wave activity today into tonight as
a weather system moves into northern California and northwest NV.
Sierra ridge winds should peak at 60-70kts, with valley winds near
and below 30-40 kts.

This system will also produce an area of snow over the Sierra and
western NV. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with heavier snow
showers 03-18z UTC Saturday. Snow showers and MVFR/IFR conditions
may linger for the eastern Sierra into Saturday afternoon. Brong

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&