A slow moving upper level trough combined with deep moisture to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of south-central Georgia. Rainfall totals between 5 and 8 inches were measured in a couple of days.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TAE wrote it up.
A slow moving upper level trough combined with deep moisture to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of south-central Georgia. Rainfall totals between 5 and 8 inches were measured in a couple of days.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 10, 10:57 AM EST, 23 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1057 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1047 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2023
Adjusted the PoP forecast this morning as the band of rain has set
up from roughly Lanier Co GA to Gulf Co FL, with precip generally
falling to east and southeast of that line. Current thought
process is that we should start to see rain spread over the region
this afternoon and evening. Widespread rain should be observed
late tonight and into Saturday.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 445 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2023
A front will stall across the area this morning, with heavy
rainfall developing and persisting near the front. A low will
develop along the stalled front on Saturday, with more widespread
rounds of moderate to heavy rain tonight and Saturday. The cold
front will decisively push southeast late Saturday, with a cooler
and drier air mass blowing in on Sunday. Mild days and cool frosty
mornings are forecast on Monday and Tuesday. The weather will get
more active during the second half of next week, with a cold front
around Thursday night and Friday accompanied by a severe weather
threat.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 445 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2023
A slow-moving surface front has made its way southeast to a line
from Panama City to Bainbridge to Cordele. This front will move
slightly more southeast through sunrise, then stall for a few
hours. The air mass is richly moist, with Precipitable Water (PW)
values in excess of 1.5 inches spreading over and north of the
boundary. Energetic west-southwest flow aloft is overspreading the
region in advance of a vigorous upper trough that is digging into
the Southern Plains today. Modest 500 mb height falls are
underway.
CAMS guidance is almost unanimous in showing a slow- moving line
of storms forming near or just southeast of the front before
sunrise, from roughly Apalachicola to Tallahassee to about Tifton
or Valdosta. Given torrential rainfall rates and slow movement, a
quick 4+ inches of rain is likely in isolated spots within that
corridor, which would be enough to cause flash flooding. The HREF
shows neighborhood probabilities for 5+ inches of rain in the
30-45 percent range along the coast of Franklin and Wakulla
Counties. Will therefore soon be issuing a Flash Flood Watch that
will be in effect through mid-afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 445 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2023
An uncommonly strong 500 mb low will move from southern Louisiana
to southern Georgia and to South Carolina over the course of
Saturday and Saturday night. If the GFS verifies, our 500 mb
heights would briefly dip below the Min Moving Average of 500 mb
heights in the SPC sounding climatology. That is to say that this
is an anomalous event. A surface low will develop over the
northeast Gulf on Saturday, then deepen as it moves northeast
across southeast Georgia and the coastal Carolinas.
With a wavering frontal boundary already in place over the region,
strong isentropic lift will develop in advance of and to the left
to the surface low. Low-level isentropic lift will act within an
environment characterized by PW values exceeding 1.5 inches for a
widespread moderate to heavy rain event tonight and Saturday.
Additional widespread rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 3 inches are
expected. Location of the heaviest rain will depend a lot on the
surface low track, but look for a large area or band of rain to
start a slow cyclonic pivot. Look for heaviest rain where the
pivot point extends duration of the rain.
As the deepening low lift northeast off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic
coast on Sunday, deeper northwest flow will develop. A cool and
drier air mass will sweep in.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 445 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2023
Flat upper ridging will move in and prevail on Monday and Tuesday,
with mild afternoons and cool (possibly frosty) mornings.
A broad, deep and energetic upper trough will develop around the
middle of next week over the Southern Rockies and the Southern
Plains. An active west-southwest jet stream pattern will develop
over the norther Gulf Coast. A cold front should eventually push
across the tri-state area late in the week. There is a growing
collection of GFS ensemble members that are showing favorable
overlap of convective parameters for a severe weather event
around the 16th or 17th.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 445 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2023
All-around sloppy aviation weather for the next 24 hours. A slow-
moving and wavering frontal boundary near DHN will be located near
TLH and VLD this morning. A slow-moving line of heavy
thunderstorms will soon develop, with the slow movement
potentially bringing a few hours of reduced vsbys in +TSRA this
morning to TLH and possibly VLD.
A large area of moderate to heavy rain will overspread all
terminals this evening, lasting through tonight. With shallow
northerly winds and cool air at the surface and richly moist air
above, it will spell mostly IFR cigs and many hours of MVFR vsbys
over the next 24 hours. Low-level wind shear is also possible near
the front, most likely affecting TLH and VLD, where south-
southwest flow will blow atop a shallow layer of north winds near
the surface.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2023
A cold front will turn up stationary over the northeast Gulf today
and this evening. Then a low pressure center will develop along
the stalled front late tonight, then deepen as it moves northeast
across the northern Nature Coast on Saturday morning. As the low
exits northeast late Saturday, the front will quickly sweep
southeast, and strong west to northwest breezes will spread across
the waters. Winds will start to east on Sunday afternoon, then a
high pressure center will pass directly across the waters Monday
night. Fresh southerly breezes return on Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 445 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2023
Multiple rounds of wetting rains are expected today and Saturday.
Dispersion will be low, mainly due to thick cloud cover and low
mixing heights. Gusty northwest breezes on Sunday will start to
usher in a cooler and drier air mass.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 445 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2023
Flooding of all sorts is a concern from now through this weekend.
A slow-moving line of thunderstorms is soon expected to develop
roughly along a line from Apalachicola to Tallahassee to Valdosta.
Given the slow movement, a quick 4+ inches of rain is expected in
spots. This would cause flash flooding. The HREF is even showing
non-zero chances of reaching 8 inches over coastal basins from
Apalachicola to Tallahassee, which would lead raise concerns on
rivers such as the Sopchoppy and Saint Marks. Over south Georgia,
the expected rain in the Withlacoochee and Little River basins
would prime the pump in advance of additional heavy rain tonight
and Saturday.
A deepening low center will track northeast across north Florida
and southeast Georgia on Saturday. A more widespread round of
moderate to heavy rain is expected in advance of and to the left
of the track of the low. Additional widespread rain amounts of
1.5-3 inches are possible, with higher amounts possible. There is
a growing collection of rivers where minor flooding appears
likely, and moderate flooding is in the realm of possibilities.
The greatest concern could be in the Withlacoochee and Ochlockonee
basins, since they will already be running high after today's
heavy rain. Other basins of concern include the Kinchafoonee,
Muckalee, Choctawhatchee, Shoal, Flint, Apalachicola, Saint
Marks, and perhaps the Pea.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 73 52 61 44 / 100 100 100 80
Panama City 70 52 60 45 / 90 100 100 60
Dothan 63 49 56 41 / 80 100 100 80
Albany 68 49 57 41 / 90 100 100 100
Valdosta 73 52 62 44 / 90 100 100 90
Cross City 77 58 72 49 / 70 90 100 80
Apalachicola 70 53 61 47 / 90 100 100 60
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ this afternoon for
FLZ014>019-026-027-114-115-118-127.
High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...Flood Watch until 5 PM EST this afternoon for GAZ146>148-157>161.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...HanerThe Moody AFB radar (KVAX), 30 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:22 UTC.
6 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Twin Lakes Road was closed due to flooding between the 4600 and 4800 block.
Highway 41 was closed at the eastern edge of Lake Park due to flooding.
The intersection of Old Valdosta Road and Wesley Allen Road was flooded.
There were a few reports of water over a few roadways in Brooks county.
The intersection of Highway 76 and Cornelius Road was flooded.
Flooding was reported near Val Del Road and Bishop Lane.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1079907, 1079908, 1079909, 1079910, 1079911, 1079913.