Heavy Snow in Alaska, February 10 to 11, 2023

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
357 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

.SHORT TERM...Another low pressure system will be pushing into
the western gulf Friday night with a gale force front impacting
the panhandle Friday night into Saturday. A pocket of storm force
winds with gusts up to around 50 kt are expected associated with
a barrier jet as the front approaches the NE Gulf Coast, primarily
to the SW of Yakutat. The inside waters such as Chatham and Lynn
Canal will see winds gusting up to 45 kt as well due to the
orientation of the front late this evening.

Adjustments were made to expected precip types in the Lisianski
Strait area as there may be a brief period of rain and snow before
a transition to all rain as the front pushes through. In the
interior of the southern panhandle, the winter weather advisory
for Petersburg was dropped based upon similar warmer temperature
based considerations. The temperature trend in general was that
many areas did not exhibit a diurnal trend after the most recent
low pressure system pushed inland.

In the northern half of the panhandle, Gustavus and Juneau should
see snow initially before transitioning to rain on the backside of
the front. Snow accumulations for Gustavus, Hoonah, and Tenakee
Springs are expected to be negligible, while Juneau is still
under a winter weather advisory and could see upwards of 6 inches.
Further north, Haines and Skagway will remain cold enough to see
snow through the night before transitioning to rain saturday
afternoon. Haines remains under a winter weather advisory with
snow accumulations of 3 - 6 inches expected. Yakutat also remains
under a winter weather advisory with snow totals ranging from 4 -
6 inches as well as strong winds.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday Night through Wednesday/...The upper level
pattern over the mid and long range periods gradually shifts to a
progressive trough/ridge pattern across the area by early next
week.

At the surface, the remainder of the weekend will continue to be
plagued by the second front from a series of fronts that will be
moving through the area. The frontal system will be moving in
from the SW and will bring more rain/snow and breezy conditions
to the area. For winds, Gale force winds for the Gulf waters are
possible for Saturday night into Sunday. For precipitation,
generally, the south can expect rain while the north will be a
wintry mix quickly changing to rain. The bulk of the accumulating
snow will primarily be confined to the extreme northern Panhandle,
around the Canadian border crossing roads. Those areas will
remain in wintry precipitation. Negligible accumulation is
expected due to warmed temperatures for the vast majority of the
event. This is due to warm air advecting in from the south over
the area as the system approaches.

For early next week, another break between weather systems looks to
occur with only chances for light precipitation and potential for
breaks in the clouds over the Panhandle as relatively quick moving
weak ridging moves over the area on Monday. Additionally, cooler
temperatures look to advect into the area associated with
northerly flow behind Sunday's frontal system and the ridge that
will be poised over the area into Tuesday. The colder air will set
the stage for the next front that approaches from the west
Tuesday afternoon. There is potential for moderate to heavy snow
out of this front, particularly for the Yakutat area, into
Wednesday. Additionally, more mid Gale force winds look to move
through the Gulf and near ocean entrances of the Inner Channels
out ahead of and along with this front as it pushes through the
region along with its tightened pressure gradient.

Overall, for the long term forecast period, forecast confidence is
generally average. Model agreement is generally good with mild
divergence toward the end of the period. Also, ensemble member
spread seems reasonable for this time of year for the period.

&&

.AVIATION...Good flying weather right now but as the weather front
moves over the area tonight it will being in MVFR conditions with some
IFR conditions with the heavier snow that will move into the
northern inner channels. The front will also increase the risk of
LLWS at most of the airports along the coast and some over the inner
channels. Ceilings and VIS Conditions will improve some by Saturday
morning as the front moves through the area but showers will
persist. There will also be some remaining LLWS over the southern
areas Saturday morning but they will decrease by the afternoon.
Another system will be moving into the area Saturday night that will
again lower ceiling and VIS and bring in more LLWS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ317.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Saturday afternoon for
     AKZ318.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST
     Saturday for AKZ319-325.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM this evening to midnight AKST tonight for
     AKZ323.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ328.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through Saturday morning
     for AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ031-034-036-041>043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-032-033-035-053.

&&

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....JLC
AVIATION...ABJ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
113 PM AKST FRI FEB 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 AM     HEAVY SNOW       1 NW HAINES             59.24N 135.46W
02/10/2023  M11.0 INCH       HAINES             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            UDPATED TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM EVENT.

&&