Drought in Missouri, November 1 to 30, 2023

Name: Drought in Missouri, November 1 to 30, 2023
Start: 2023-11-01T00:00
End: 2023-11-30T23:59
Location: Missouri

November 1 to 30, 2023 · NWS SGF · 13 events in 13 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 13 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 13

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.

Enough rain fell through the month to keep drought conditions from becoming worse, however, not enough rain occurred to allow for improvements. Severe (D2) Drought conditions lingered across portions southeastern Kansas through the end of November as rainfall amounts from 1 to 3 inches with localized 4 to 5 inch amounts occurred during the month. Across southeastern Kansas, Severe (D2) drought lingered in some areas with Moderate (D1) Drought and Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions areas continuing in others. The primary impacts of the drought occurred in the agricultural communities. Hay growth was impacted along with reports of crop and vegetation impacts due to limited soil and surface moisture, dry stock ponds and low flows on some streams and rivers. Final reports of damages will be placed in the last month the drought occurred in the counties impacted in 2023.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 11:38 PM CST, 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 31, 11:38 PM CST, 22 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1238 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023

Key Messages:

1. Well below average temperatures and cold wind chills through
Wednesday. Record low temperatures likely.

2. Temperatures will begin to moderate closer to normal by the
end of the week into next weekend. Rain chances return by Sunday
and Monday.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

Synoptic Pattern and Current Conditions: Water vapor imagery and
upper air analysis continued to show the area in dry northwest
flow with a strong upper level low dropping southeast into the
Great Lakes. A cold and dry airmass has moved in as seen on the
12Z KSGF sounding with a 0.21 in precipitable water value.
Temperatures this morning dropped into the upper teens to middle
to 20s in most areas. Temps rebounded into the upper 30s and
lower 40s this afternoon under sunny skies. However a dry cold
front moved through this morning, bringing with it gusty northwest
winds of 25 to 30 mph.

Tuesday Night- Wednesday: The coldest night of this recent spell
is likely as high pressure eventually slides closer to the area
by Wednesday morning. NBM temperature spreads are small with most
areas dropping into the upper teens to lower 20s. The usual cold
spots will likely drop into the middle teens. There is a high
chance of breaking temperature records (see the climate section
below). For those going outdoors this evening, expect wind chill
values to quickly drop into the teens under brisk north winds.

High temps Wednesday are again not likely to escape the
40s but should be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday given the dry
air in place. Wind chill values early Wednesday morning may
actually reach the single digits. It is a little early in the cold
season for this type of cold and those living outdoors or those
more susceptible to the cold will need to take the proper
precautions if possible.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

Late Week/Weekend: Ensemble cluster analysis continues to be in
good agreement that dry northwest flow aloft will continue through
the end of the week into the weekend however the airmass will
slowly modify with southerly surface winds returning, allowing
temps to return closer to average with 60s likely by Friday,
lasting into the weekend. The NBM continues to indicate precip
chances of 10-20 percent late Saturday night into early Sunday
however there is low confidence in this given lack of support in
ensemble cluster analysis and uncertainty in moisture return from
the Gulf of Mexico.

Early Next Week: Ensemble clusters are beginning to become more
aligned in precip chances Late Sunday through Monday as stronger
shortwave energy moves into the central US. Precip chances are
currently in the 30-40 percent range for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023

Surface high pressure continues to build over the area bringing a
light and variable wind, along with a clear sky and VFR
conditions. Some southerly winds will develop during the day as
the surface high shifts east of the area.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

October 31:
KSGF: 39/1993

Record Low Temperatures:

October 31:
KVIH: 22/1898
KUNO: 24/1949

November 1:
KSGF: 22/2014
KJLN: 22/1991
KVIH: 21/1954

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Burchfield

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 31, 12:19 PM CST, 11 hours 41 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
119 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-011830-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
119 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited excessive cold risk.

DISCUSSION...

Wind chill values will drop into the teens and single digits
across the area tonight with the coldest readings east of
Springfield.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Gusty south winds of 25 to 30 mph are likely Thursday night and
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

13 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Vernon

When: November 1, 12:00 AM CST to November 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Vernon forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 37.851, -94.342 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

No change to the Severe (D2) Drought conditions were noted in November. Farm and stock ponds saw continuing impacts with ground water levels and reservoirs showing limited drought condition improvement. Crop and vegetation growth was showing signs of stress due to limited moisture. Monetary crop losses for 2023 beginning January first will be included in future reports when the drought ends and loses are assessed.

Drought, Cedar

When: November 1, 12:00 AM CST to November 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Cedar forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 37.724, -93.857 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Polk

When: November 1, 12:00 AM CST to November 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Polk forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 37.617, -93.400 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Hickory

When: November 1, 12:00 AM CST to November 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Hickory forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 37.941, -93.321 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Dallas

When: November 1, 12:00 AM CST to November 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Dallas forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 37.680, -93.024 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Laclede

When: November 1, 12:00 AM CST to November 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Laclede forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 37.658, -92.590 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Camden

When: November 1, 12:00 AM CST to November 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Camden forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 38.027, -92.766 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Morgan

When: November 1, 12:00 AM CST to November 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Morgan forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 38.424, -92.886 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Maries

When: November 1, 12:00 AM CST to November 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Maries forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 38.162, -91.925 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Miller

When: November 1, 12:00 AM CST to November 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Miller forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 38.215, -92.428 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Phelps

When: November 1, 12:00 AM CST to November 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Phelps forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 37.877, -91.792 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe (D2) Drought conditions expanded slightly during November. Farm and stock ponds saw continuing impacts with ground water levels and reservoirs showing limited drought condition improvement. Crop and vegetation growth was showing signs of stress due to limited moisture. Monetary crop losses for 2023 beginning January first will be included in future reports when the drought ends and loses are assessed.

Drought, St. Clair

When: November 1, 12:00 AM CST to November 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: St. Clair forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 38.037, -93.776 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

No change to the Extreme (D3) or Severe (D2) Drought conditions were noted in November. Farm and stock ponds saw continuing impacts with ground water levels and reservoirs showing limited drought condition improvement. Crop and vegetation growth was showing signs of stress due to limited moisture. Monetary crop losses for 2023 beginning January first will be included in future reports when the drought ends and loses are assessed.

Drought, Benton

When: November 1, 12:00 AM CST to November 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Benton forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 38.295, -93.288 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Missouri in 2023 Every state in 2023 This day in weather history Warnings in Missouri, November 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1143812, 1143813, 1143814, 1143815, 1143816, 1143817, 1143818, 1143819, 1143820, 1143821, 1143822, 1143823, 1143824.