Warm and dry weather started November 2023, maintaining a pocket of Severe (D2) Drought across portions of Hidalgo, Starr, Brooks, and Kenedy County. The season's first El Nino-related multi-day rainfall event (November 10-13) would finish off the remaining area by the 14th, and dryness would ultimately be removed from all areas by early December.
Every event with a place to put it; 8 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
Warm and dry weather started November 2023, maintaining a pocket of Severe (D2) Drought across portions of Hidalgo, Starr, Brooks, and Kenedy County. The season's first El Nino-related multi-day rainfall event (November 10-13) would finish off the remaining area by the 14th, and dryness would ultimately be removed from all areas by early December.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 11:48 PM CST, 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1248 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023
The mid-level disturbance across the Great Lakes swings through
New England into mid week, dragging a locally weak 500mb trough
axis offshore tonight. This should end any lingering drizzle or
light rain across Deep South Texas and allow some clearing skies
to return. Less cloud cover tonight will allow temperatures to dip
back into the 40s, with isolated locations across the ranchlands
and in more typically cooler spots like Zapata and Armstrong
potentially landing into the upper 30s. With consistent sunshine
and building high pressure at the surface on Wednesday, expect
highs to rebound another 10 degrees or more for most locations,
potentially even touching the upper 60s or low 70s. Another cool
night under clear skies expected Wednesday night may bring lows in
the 40s to the ranchlands and more rural portions of the RGV one
more time this week, with 50s elsewhere.
Water levels along the coast are running near predicted and should
remain below Coastal Flood Statement criteria into high tide this
evening. The High Surf Advisory remains in effect through
Wednesday morning and there is a high risk of rip currents likely
persisting through Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023
As an elongated surface ridge works its way to the east coast,
winds will veer easterly by mid Thursday morning advecting a
tropical airmass back into the region. Dewpoints will climb from
the mid 30s Thursday morning into the upper 50s by afternoon. A
weak upper level trof traversing the region from the West will tap
into the surging low level moisture to produce broken to overcast
skies Thursday afternoon. While no precip is expected, the warmer
airmass will push afternoon highs into the low to mid 70s Thursday
afternoon.
Upper ridging builds in quickly behind the departing trof on Friday
where it will remain through early next week driving a continued
upswing in temperatures. Afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper
80s Friday through Sunday with lower 90s expected by Monday which
could approach daily record highs in a few locations. A surge of low
level moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico will provide a very
low chance (20%) of a couple of stray showers over the outer coastal
waters. Otherwise, no precip is expected through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023
Fair weather is the rule for general aviation for the next 24
hours, with notably lower winds later today than on Tuesday,
becoming nearly calm after sunset this evening. Winds will
gradually veer from northwest early this morning to north by
midday, continuing overnight. Dry air in the lower atmosphere will
maintain VFR conditions. A pesky layer of moisture between 9 and
12 thousand feet may keep occasional ceilings, but expect the
clearing line to reach McAllen and Harlingen before daybreak.
For Brownsville, the return of low level flow above the surface in
the 950-875 mb layer may bring some stratocumulus in from late
afternoon through evening...said stratocumulus is resident east of
the Lower Texas coast from the strong early season cold advection
over prior Gulf water temperatures in the low to mid 80s. For now,
added a scattered mention, though may well see broken at some
point overnight. Will address that situation later this morning.
Not expecting any MVFR conditions given continued limited surface/low
level moisture.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023
Tonight through next Tuesday...High pressure continues to build
into the Western Gulf of Mexico, maintaining moderate to strong
northerly flow into Wednesday. Conditions gradually improve into
the offshore waters on Wednesday, with Small Craft Advisories
potentially ending across the bay and nearshore Gulf tonight and
offshore waters Wednesday night. Marine conditions are expected to
generally improve into next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 55 77 65 81 / 0 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 50 75 60 81 / 0 0 0 10
MCALLEN 50 75 60 82 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 46 73 58 81 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 66 75 70 78 / 0 0 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 58 76 64 81 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ451-454-455.
High Surf Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ130-132-
135-150-155.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ170-
175.
&&
AVIATION Update...52-GoldsmithThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe (D2) Drought persisted into early November across southern Brooks County to start November. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches between November 10 and 13 in this area would improve conditions to Moderate (D1) on the 14th.
Severe (D2) Drought persisted into early November across northern Hidalgo County, mainly west of Interstate 69C. Rainfall of 3 to 5 inches between November 10th and 13th in this area would improve conditions to Moderate (D1) on the 14th.
Severe (D2) Drought persisted into early November across the western two-thirds of southern Hidalgo County, from near Progresso northwest through Donna to San Carlos (4 miles east of Edinburg). Rainfall of 3 to 5 inches between November 10th and 13th in this area would improve conditions to Moderate (D1) on the 14th.
Severe (D2) Drought persisted into early November across the eastern two-thirds of Starr County, from Roma to just east of Agua Nueva. Rainfall of 4 to more than 7 inches inches between November 10 and 13 in this area would improve conditions to Moderate (D1) and Abnormally Dry (D0) on the 14th.
Severe (D2) Drought persisted into early November across the southeastern corner of Jim Hogg County, from east of Agua Nueva to the Brooks County line. Rainfall of 4 to more than 6 inches inches between November 10th and 13th in this area would improve conditions to Abnormally Dry (D0) on the 14th.
Severe (D2) Drought persisted into early November across a portion of western and north-central Kenedy County encompassing an area from Armstrong to the county line north of Sarita but not the northwestern sliver of the County. Rainfall of 3 to more than 7 inches between the 10th and 13th would improve conditions to Moderate (D1) Drought and Abnormally Dry (D0) on the 14th.
Severe (D2) Drought persisted into early November across the northern portions of coastal Kenedy County. Residual moisture from prior late October rains would improve conditions to Moderate (D1) Drought on the 7th.
Severe (D2) Drought persisted into early November across the northern portions of the Kenedy County barrier island. Residual moisture from prior late October rains would improve conditions to Moderate (D1) Drought on the 7th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, November 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1147470, 1147471, 1147474, 1147482, 1147483, 1147484, 1147485, 1147486.