Drought conditions that started late summer continued across most of southern Mississippi through the month of December. By this point in the year, multiple observational sites were running at a 10 to 30 inch annual rainfall deficit.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LIX wrote it up.
Drought conditions that started late summer continued across most of southern Mississippi through the month of December. By this point in the year, multiple observational sites were running at a 10 to 30 inch annual rainfall deficit. Multiple rounds of rainfall aided in some improving conditions for parts of southern Mississippi, so some areas were allowed to drop out of D2 drought at various points throughout the month, while some areas stayed in at least D2 drought throughout the month.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New Orleans, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 30, 5:38 PM CST, 6 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
538 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 445 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
It has been a dreary cool day with mainly some light sprinkles
otherwise severe virga and a breeze across the area. The issue
though is...WHAT WILL HAPPEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...and to be very
blunt there are multiple scenarios that could however things may
be finally setting up for at least one specific scenario tonight
which could mean a few strong to severe storms initially
transitioning into a flash flood risk.
Tonight the biggest question earlier was would convection would
develop over the central TX coast and then become anchored to the LA
coast or even farther south into the Gulf. This appears to be the
least likely scenario now as convection has struggled to develop in
the Gulf all day and has been along the upper TX coast and inland
with moderate showers over southwest LA all afternoon. This appears
to be mainly associated a slightly subtle wind maxima/impulse which
is very difficult to see on WV but does appear to be there which has
been advertised by most of the models through the week, its just
quite a bit more subtle than what was advertised and also probably
why we have not seen more substantial convection in southeast TX and
moving into southwest LA. Then main disturbance is still back to the
west and just now moving into the southern Plains but is expected to
push northeast through the night and this will likely be a big
reason why storms will struggle to move into the area. Shield of
light rain is over southwest and south-central LA and this will try
to move into southeast LA during the evening and this light rain and
virga will keep things on the cooler side of the region meaning any
convection we see overnight is likely going to be elevated most of
the time. especially for locations north of the LA coast. Right
along the SELa coast and maybe up to Thibodaux east to just south of
the NO metro. North of that line it is going to be very difficult to
get winds brought down to the sfc from storms and very difficult to
get any tornadoes to develop. So what do we expect to happen
tonight.
Deeper convection has been struggling to develop across southeast TX
and if it does develop it is going to have to do so in the next 3-4
hours and if it doesn't then looks for a lot of nothing for our area
overnight tonight. That convection should be associated with a
developing LL jet which is suppose to translate from the
northeastern Gulf early this evening into central MS. The best LL
convergence will be on that eastern side and at the nose which
should move through the northwestern 3rd of the CWA but shortly
after 6z it will be lifting away and thus we start to quickly lose
the better LL convergence. At the same time the main disturbance
will be moving to the northeast quickly with most of its support
remaining well north of the area. This notoriously leads to
convection waning and sometime rather quickly. This combined with
the LL jet leaving would start to cause the line of storms to weaken
and again take on that more WSW to ENE orientation and that is
expected but for this to happen we will actually need some robust
convection to develop in the next few hours to get a line with
enough push to get into the area and recently it is looking more and
more likely that whatever line is left will struggle to push much
more than halfway through the CWA by 12z if it even gets that far
now. This is leading to a concern that we may not have that much
activity overnight as once expected but then the boundary is then
stalled over the area and that sets the stage for activity tomorrow
or more so tomorrow night as the next impulse comes through.
If the line can develop tonight it will probably begin to push into
the far northwest portions of the CWA around midnight or shortly
after and then start to slow down some as it moves east and begins
to pivot to that WSW to ENE line. As long as convection is still
occuring the risk flash flooding is there and there could be a
narrow area of rather heavy rain approaching 3 to 5 inches however
things are looking less likely for that to happen tonight now.
It is likely that we will have a lull tomorrow even if we don't much
tonight it will still be somewhat quiet through early afternoon. We
then wait for the next impulse as we remain under the southwest flow
and this could move though overnight but convection may start as
early as mid to late afternoon as we will probably heat up and that
will help storms develop. Once we get better support we could be in
for a little more active night with strong to severe storms not out
of the question but the threat of locally heavy rain possible again.
Southwest flow remains over the region and we could see rain and a
few thunderstorms persist through much of Saturday and into the
evening hours. /CAB/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 445 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Spotty showers have started to move into the area from the west
over the last hour or so. Expect that coverage to increase as the
system moves to the east throughout tonight. Some places could see
a rumble of thunder or two with the strongest convection, but
overall it'll mostly be shower activity. There also is some
increased low-level wind shear with the strong low-level jet
tonight. The activity should taper off during the afternoon
tomorrow before possibly igniting again tomorrow evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 445 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Onshore flow will continue to increase causing hazardous marine
conditions for all coastal waters. The western Gulf waters will
see some wind gusts up to gale force at times overnight and a
Gale Warning remain in place. Downgraded to a SCY over the tidal
lakes as winds should remain just below Gale but can't rule out
one or two gusts near 40 kt. Eventually, a frontal boundary will
stall over the region, which should allow the surface pressure
gradient to relax allowing for winds and seas to subside a bit
through the second half of the upcoming weekend. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 56 75 63 73 / 90 50 90 80
BTR 60 80 66 77 / 90 50 90 70
ASD 57 78 63 75 / 70 70 90 80
MSY 61 78 66 74 / 80 70 80 80
GPT 58 74 63 72 / 60 90 90 90
PQL 56 78 63 76 / 50 90 90 90
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Friday for GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-555-557-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ550-552-
570-572.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ550-552-
570-572.
Gale Warning until 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ550-552-570-572.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Friday for GMZ532-534-536-
538-555-557-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ552-570-
572.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ552-570-
572.
Gale Warning until 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ552-570-572.
&&
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...CABThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
An abnormally dry summer and fall led to prolonged D2 to D4 drought conditions across the zone.
An abnormally dry summer and fall led to prolonged D2 to D4 drought conditions across the zone.
An abnormally dry summer and fall led to prolonged D2 to D4 drought conditions across the zone.
An abnormally dry summer and fall led to prolonged D2 to D4 drought conditions across the zone.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, December 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1153200, 1153201, 1153202, 1153203.