D2 Drought persisted from October in 4 counties in Minnesota.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
D2 Drought persisted from October in 4 counties in Minnesota.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 9:23 PM CST, 2 hours 37 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1023 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 1023 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Clouds continue to fill in from the west. Confidence in more than a trace of snow is diminishing with latest guidance, but some flurries into the overnight and tomorrow morning remain possible. Otherwise, forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 The forecast for this evening looks a little ghoulish, with wind chills in the single digits above zero in many spots. Make sure you bundle up before going outside. Slight chances for snow showers will move in overnight, but not expected much accumulation from these. Forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Key Messages: -Low level clouds shift through MN this afternoon, with mid level clouds moving in this evening and overnight from the west. -Weak surface trough moves through this evening and overnight bringing the chance for a few light snow showers. Little to no accumulation is expected. Discussion: Clouds continue to move through Minnesota this afternoon, with mid to high level clouds entering eastern ND. The clouds entering eastern ND are associated with a surface level trough from southern Canada that will bring the chance for isolated snow showers this evening and overnight. These snow showers will be light and little to no accumulation is expected. Main driving force will be synoptic rather then frontogentic, helping to keep banding potential on the low scenario side (<10%). Winds will be on the lower side out of the south, so visibility restrictions are not expected to drop below 6 miles. It will be a chilly evening for trick or treating, with wind chills getting down into the single digits. A few isolated spots could reach down into the negative single digits. Bundle up if your headed out for trick or treating this evening. Isolated snow showers move into NW MN during the early morning hours on Wednesday, before conditions clear out by sunrise. Cloud coverage decreases by the late morning and into the afternoon hours as the surface trough shifts east. This will help bring temperatures into the upper 20s to mid 30s by the afternoon. Conditions continue to be dry as we head into the overnight hours on Wednesday. Little to no impacts are expected during the short term. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Key Messages: -Pattern remains northwesterly to near zonal through the long term as indicated by cluster analysis. -Signal for a wave to shift through this weekend, with potential for precipitation. Some ensembles (20%) have indicated the chance for a mixture of precipitation, with brief freezing rain potential. -Warming temperatures through the long term, but highs still remain below average. Discussion: During the long term, cluster analysis continues to indicate a zonal to near northwesterly flow across the northern United States. This sets up the chance for clipper systems to track across the area. The first of these systems moves in by the end of the week and into the weekend. Ensembles hint at a trough moving out of the northern Rockies into the northern plains late Friday through Saturday bringing warm air advection in the lower to mid levels. Moisture isn't sufficient across the area, but with strong synoptic ascent we see precipitation chances increasing. Temperatures during the systems arrival are in the lower 30s north of Highway 200 and the mid to upper 30s south of Hwy 200. There are three different scenarios that could unfold with the system as ensembles are still uncertain with strength, timing, and track. The worst case scenario (20%) would be WAA moving over the cooler air, bringing the chance for light freezing rain across portions of the area. Most likely scenario (70%) would be rain/snow mix line, with rain where temps are in the upper 30s, and snow where its below freezing. This would indicate less warmth in the mid levels to melt the snow and refreeze it near the surface. The other scenario (10%) would be the system tracks to the south of the area bringing little to no precipitation chance to the area. Current indication show freezing rain chances at <20% for areas west of the Red River Valley. Chances are higher (20-30%) further toward central ND. The system doesn't pull in CAA from the north throughout the event, meaning a rain/snow line could set up. Areas in the mid to upper 30s could see just rain, while the areas hovering around the freezing mark to mid 30s could see that freezing rain chance or rain/snow mix. This system bares watching as any freezing rain can bring impacts to travel. End of the weekend and into the new work week brings further chances for precipitation as clippers translate across the NW/zonal flow aloft. Temperatures remain below average but around the 30s for daytime highs. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1023 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 VFR ceilings through the TAF period, with the exception of some northern TAF sites (DVL, GFK, BJI, TVF) that could get down to 020 Wednesday afternoon. Winds will shift more W/NW into Wednesday, but will stay around 5-10 knots. -SN is possible in the overnight hours tonight into Wednesday morning, but no accumulation is expected. Winds will continue to decrease into Wednesday night, getting down to about 5 knots sustained or less. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && UPDATE...AK SHORT TERM...Spender LONG TERM...Spender AVIATION...AK
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 319 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-012030- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier- Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks- Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- Western Walsh- 319 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
D2 drought detected in Hubbard county from November 1st through the 30th.
D2 drought detected in Kittson county from November 1st through the 30th.
D2 drought detected in Beltrami county from November 1st through the 30th.
D2 drought detected in Beltrami county from November 1st through the 30th.
D2 drought detected in Wadena county from November 1st through the 30th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, November 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1145909, 1145910, 1145911, 1145912, 1145913.