NWS Duluth, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 4, 5:23 AM CST, 3 hours 37 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 4, 5:23 AM CST, 3 hours 37 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
623 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023
.DISCUSSION...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 445 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023
Messy potent spring storm arrives today with snow, sleet, freezing
rain, thunderstorms, and strong winds. A plethora of winter weather
headlines are in effect. Weather quiets down and warms up into the
weekend, which will need to be watched for flooding concerns.
Our incoming storm is actively ejecting out of Colorado early this
morning, with some radar returns beginning to pop up over the
Northern Plains. Precipitation will begin to stretch into the
Northland through this morning along a warm front, as all snow with
the first wave of precipitation. The storm then lifts up into
Minnesota bringing more potent forcing and a slug of warm air this
afternoon and evening. This will cause for a interesting collection
of precipitation types. From northwest to southeast: expecting
mostly snow for north-central Minnesota; a wintry mix over the Iron
Range, Brainerd Lakes, and Twin Ports; freezing rain through the
Twin Ports and across the South Shore; and mostly rain for areas
across our most southern WI counties.
Heavy snow under the TROWAL of the storm will mainly affect
Koochiching, northern Itasca, and northern St. Louis County where
accumulations of 5 to 15 inches are possible, highest further
northwest. Here, mostly snow will be met with 30-45 mph winds,
leading to white-out conditions. A Blizzard Warning is in effect for
Koochiching County.
South of this heaviest snow, a transition to a wintry mix of snow,
sleet, and freezing rain will cover much of NE MN by late afternoon
and overnight into Wednesday morning. With steep low level lapse
rates, it would not be surprising to have some thunder within this
area, manifesting as thundersnow or thundersleet. Along the North
Shore, some enhanced snowfall is expected at first along the higher
terrain, but that will eventually switch to terrain-enhanced sleet
and a heavy wintry mix. Winds will be very high from the northeast,
strongest in the mid to late evening. Gusts of 30-45 mph expected
for the Brainerd Lakes and Iron Range, with stronger winds with 45-
60mph gusts closer to Lake Superior. This area is under a Winter
Storm Warning for the overall impact of snow, wintry mix, and strong
winds. High waves on Lake Superior could lead to marginal lakeshore
flooding concern, but for now ice pack along shore is expected to
mitigate some of the wave energy.
It seems likely that there will be a strip of nearly pure freezing
rain within this storm overnight Tuesday evening into early
Wednesday morning leading to heavier ice accumulations. This will be
highly dependent and liable to shift based on surface temperatures
and the exact placement of the warm nose, but for this forecast
package the highest confidence for an expanse of up to three tenths
of an inch is from the Twin Ports and across the South Shore of
Wisconsin. In coordination with NWS Marquette, we have upgraded the
Winter Weather Advisory for Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron
County to an Ice Storm Warning running through 10AM Wednesday. Here,
especially along the higher terrain, exists the potentially perfect
combination of colder surface temperatures, warmer air aloft, and
strong dynamic forcing, some of which could be convective in nature.
This could lead to rapid ice accumulations overnight. Temperatures
will warm pretty quickly late Wednesday morning, but the Wednesday
morning commute could be particularly dangerous. Additionally, this
ice accumulation will be accompanied by 45-60mph wind gusts which
could lead to power outages. At least some of this ice
accumulation is expected in the Twin Ports and along the very
northern extent of I-35.
Further south, mostly rain is expected from Hinckley to Hayward to
Phillips. With steep mid level lapse rates over a robust cap, some
elevated convection is expected this evening, with a marginal severe
hail risk for Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, and Price County. Depending
on the exact temperature profile, some of these storms could make
their way into very southern Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron County.
Streaks of heavier rain of 0.5-1.5" could also kick start some snow
melt over NW WI.
Wednesday, winds switch to the southwest and become strong once
again, mostly over Lake Superior and NW WI. A Wind Advisory may be
needed over NW WI for gusts of 35-45 mph Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Into Thursday the back end of the storm wraps around the
area, bringing some light additional snowfall. There could be some
convective, squally snow showers Thursday, particularly over NE MN
and the South Shore. Precipitation should fully come to an end by
late Thursday afternoon.
Looking ahead, some of the warmest temperatures we have seen since
November are expected late this weekend and into next week (50s and
possibly 60s). This will certainly feel good, and especially after
our incoming storm, is likely to jump start snow melt. Especially
over NW WI and Pine County where the warmest temperatures are
expected, including some above freezing overnight lows, the concern
for flooding may increase quickly. Probabilistic river guidance
shows some rivers in the St. Croix, Chippewa, and Bad River basins
reaching at least action stage, if not minor flooding by mid to late
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023
Some very light snow and freezing drizzle may continue to lead to a
degradation to MVFR conditions at some terminals. Precipitation
begins to move in from the south through the morning, mostly as snow
at first for all terminals. Northeast winds begin to pick up this
morning as well, with gusts of 35 to 50 knots expected by this
evening, highest at DLH. Into this evening, precipitation will begin
to shift to sleet and freezing rain at BRD and DLH. At HYR, a wintry
mix is expected with sleet, freezing rain, and rain, followed by the
chance for some thunderstorms. At all terminals except INL some
thundersnow, thundersleet, or just plain thunderstorms will be
possible this evening. With precipitation, visibility and ceilings
are expected to drop to MVFR and IFR levels. Some weak LLWS is
possible at DLH, BRD, and HIB, but with such strong surface winds,
wind shear is not as large as it could be.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023
Gale and Storm Warnings are in effect beginning this morning. Very
strong northeast winds ramp up this morning, building quickly
through the afternoon to gusts of 45-60knots by this evening. Waves
of 10 to 20 feet are possible across Western Lake Superior, slightly
lower within the Apostle Islands. Winds continue from the northeast
through Wednesday morning before turning to the southwest through
the day Wednesday. There may be a short period Wednesday midday when
wind conditions briefly calm down but lingering wave swell will be
large. Wednesday evening southwest winds pick up again, gusting back
up to 40-50 knots. This will begin to switch wave direction, but
will lingering swell from teh northeast, there will likely be a
period of confused seas Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday
morning with different primary and secondary wave directions is
likely. On top of winds and waves, a myriad of precipitation types
are expected with snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. Despite
large waves, at this time it does not appear that heavy freezing
spray is possible, due to warm air temperatures. Some light freezing
spray might be possible during the overnight hours when temperatures
cool, especially near shore.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 28 25 34 17 / 90 100 90 40
INL 29 18 28 12 / 80 100 100 70
BRD 32 25 33 16 / 90 90 80 20
HYR 36 32 41 19 / 90 100 70 30
ASX 32 29 41 21 / 80 100 80 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
evening for WIZ001>004.
Ice Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Wednesday
for WIZ001>004.
MN...Blizzard Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday
for MNZ010.
Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT
Wednesday for MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>037.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT
Thursday for MNZ038.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-
140>148-150.
Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-148.
Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ140>144.
Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ145>147-150.
&&
DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Levens