Tornadoes and Hail in Iowa, April 4, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
222 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Tuesday/
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

Key Messages:

- Significant severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon into
  tonight including possibility of destructive winds, very large
  hail, and tornadoes.
- Red Flag Warning far southwest through this evening.
- Breezy through Wednesday, then generally dry and quiet into
  early next week, excepting low rain chances around Sunday.

By far the most significant forecast concern is the severe
thunderstorm potential for this afternoon into tonight. A warm
front is lifting northward from southern into central Iowa at this
time, scouring out low clouds as it advances, with skies rapidly
clearing and temperatures shooting up 10-15 degrees as the
boundary moves through. Relative humidity will fall rapidly
thereafter, attended by gusty south southwesterly surface winds,
promoting a high fire danger in our far southwest where a Red Flag
Warning remains in effect.

A low pressure center over Kansas and Oklahoma will shoot quickly
northeastward over central Iowa this evening, with the triple
point orienting somewhere over west central Iowa by 00Z, the warm
front extending eastward, and a trailing cool front extending to
the south southwest. Initially an elevated mixed layer will keep
the warm sector south of the warm front capped this afternoon,
however, as temperatures warm and convective inhibitions erode,
explosive updraft development will become more likely in the late
afternoon and evening. There is uncertainty as to whether storms
will be able to form in the warm sector, south of the warm front,
roughly over the southeast half or so of Iowa, or if they do
develop what coverage will be achieved, but within that
environment any storms that do develop will be capable of all
modes of severe weather. There is a higher level of confidence in
storms exploding along the cool front and up toward the triple
point, from southwestern into western and central Iowa. Nearly all
high-resolution model output initiates convection in that area
around 21-22Z, or 23Z at the latest. Initially hodographs favor
discrete supercells with all modes of severe weather possible, but
should evolve into a QLCS scenario this evening and transition
into primarily a straight-line wind threat, but with hail and
tornadoes remaining possible. Finally, a secondary squall
line/QLCS initially forming near the Kansas/Missouri border region
this evening will rotate northeastward and likely impact our
southeastern counties later tonight, perhaps around midnight or
after, carrying similar severe weather hazards.

Once the low pressure center and cool front swing through tonight,
a fairly tight pressure gradient will promote persistent west
northwest breezes and gusts through the day Wednesday, however, at
this time speeds appear sub-advisory. High pressure will then move
in and bring lighter winds and quiet weather through Thursday
night. Thereafter, a generally weak ridging/zonal steering pattern
will promote mostly southerly low-level flow and warm and quiet
weather through the remainder of the forecast period, with the
exception being a weak shortwave impulse moving overhead that may
generate some low shower and thunderstorm chances around Sunday
or Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon/
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

Low IFR/LIFR ceilings will clear out of DSM and OTM within the
next hour or so, but likely persist at the northern terminals
through most or all of the afternoon along with some light BR.
TSRA will develop later today and is likely to affect DSM, ALO
and OTM to some degree, with present but lower chances at
MCW/FOD. Have advertised with VCTS at all terminals, and TEMPO
groups during highest confidence times/locations. Severe weather
is possible as well. Finally, gusty ESE winds will turn to SSE at
most terminals this afternoon, then to WNW overnight into Wed
morning, remaining quite strong especially during the day Wed.
Amendments are likely through this evening at least, based on
short term observational trends with rapidly changing conditions.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ070-081-092.

&&

DISCUSSION...Lee
AVIATION...Lee

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
254 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

IAZ035>039-045>050-057>062-071>075-082>086-093>097-051300-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Carroll-Greene-Boone-
Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-
Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-
Wapello-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
254 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Thunderstorms are forecast at times from this afternoon into
tonight. All modes of severe weather will be possible including
damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes.

Wind gusts to near 35 mph are expected at times through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong winds are expected to continue through much of Wednesday
with gusts near 40 mph at times.

A few thunderstorms may be possible late Sunday. The probability
of severe weather appears low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely late this afternoon into tonight.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033-034-044-051300-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Crawford-
254 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast at times this evening into
early tonight. A few storms could be strong to severe with gusty
winds, hail, and possibly an isolated tornado.

Wind gusts to near 35 mph are expected at times through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong winds are expected to continue through much of Wednesday
with gusts near 40 mph at times.

A few thunderstorms may be possible late Sunday. The probability
of severe weather appears low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be possible this evening.

IAZ070-081-092-051300-
Cass-Adams-Taylor-
254 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the area for critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon and evening. Please refer to
the National Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for
further details.

Thunderstorms are forecast at times from this afternoon into
tonight. All modes of severe weather will be possible including
damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes.

Wind gusts to near 35 mph are expected at times through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Gusty winds are expected to continue through much of Wednesday
with gusts near 40 mph at times.

A few thunderstorms may be possible late Sunday. The probability
of severe weather appears low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this afternoon into tonight.

Lee