A mesoscale convective complex dropped south into northern Kentucky during the morning hours of Sunday, May 7th, with the strongest storms located along the leading edge. The system was moving into more stable air, and continued to weaken as it dropped south.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A mesoscale convective complex dropped south into northern Kentucky during the morning hours of Sunday, May 7th, with the strongest storms located along the leading edge. The system was moving into more stable air, and continued to weaken as it dropped south. However, there were still some sections along the line oriented from west to east that produced some strong winds and hail, and led to the issuance of severe thunderstorm warnings. One of these storms resulted in wind damage in Estill county as it moved through.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 7, 6:55 AM EST, 3 hours 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 755 AM EDT Sun May 7 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 725 AM EDT SUN MAY 7 2023 The steady state MCS appears to be on track to move into the JKL CWA over the next couple of hours trucking southeast as it goes with SPS level storms, so far. Have updated the forecast to fine tune this timing in the grids as well as to incorporate the latest obs and trends into the T/Td/Sky ones. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 505 AM EDT SUN MAY 7 2023 Key Messages: 1. A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is expected to drop across eastern Kentucky today with widespread showers and thunderstorms. 2. Rainfall may be locally heavy today into Monday and isolated high water issues cannot be ruled out under the more persistent and robust activity. 3. Another MCS may impact eastern Kentucky tonight into Monday morning, but its track will likely depend, at least in part, upon the evolution of the prior MCS. 08Z sfc analysis shows deep low pressure off to the northwest of Kentucky while its associated warm front is lifting into the state from the southwest. This is just starting to bring in more moisture and clouds for our area but much of the night has featured clear skies. As a result, even with milder temperatures, a ridge to valley temperature split set up for our eastern counties. As such, readings currently vary from the lower 60s on the ridges and for the southwest while temperatures in the low to mid 50s are noted in the eastern valleys. Meanwhile, amid light south winds, dewpoints have come up to the low and mid 50s most places. Additional high clouds, mainly blown off storms to the north and west, will overspread the JKL CWA through dawn and likely prevent much in the way of river valley fog development. The models are in relatively good agreement aloft concerning the overall longwave pattern for the region through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict the ridging currently poking into the Ohio Valley breaking down today and tonight in the face of several mid level impulses cutting west to east through the apex of this positive height anomaly. The first of these passes to the northeast of the state by midday followed quickly by another impinging on the JKL CWA by early Monday as the 5h pattern turns more zonal. The longwave transition will be nearly complete by Monday evening thanks to another passing impulse pushed through Kentucky on increasingly fast flow that will begin to tilt toward northwest flow late in the period. While the model spread on the height fields remains small, the subtle differences in the energy impulses will be a challenge for the lower resolution and blended model to capture effectively. For this reason, have leaned more heavily on the various CAMs solutions through Monday for PoP and Wx details - in conjunction with the NBM starting point. Sensible weather will feature a brash introduction to a more active pattern through the short term as an MCS is expected to move through the area during the day. This storm cluster should be able to take advantage of climbing and seasonably high PW air to bring thunderstorms with times of heavy rain. In addition, there may be enough instability in the area and an impressive cold pool driving the leading storms for some strong wind gusts to result. For this reason the area is contained in a Marginal Risk for severe weather from SPC today with damaging wind gusts the main threat. Confidence is fairly high for the development of these storms passing northwest to southeast during the midday hours. Despite the incoming storms temperatures are expected to reach near 80 degrees in the south ahead of the rain and rebound into the mid and upper 70s north - post activity. After a lull in activity into the evening, the next impulse will likely develop another MCS to possibly affect the area later in the night. This one is more subject to how the initial one affects the area and any boundaries it left behind. Accordingly, confidence in the timing and overall impacts are lower. Regardless, the temperatures will continue mild tonight and mostly uniform. Then the storm chances continue on Monday with another MCS or two possibly affecting this part of the state with confidence in any details very low on account of the uncertain evolution, but the ingredients are there with some of the CAMs showing support. The additional clouds and pcpn around on Monday should work to keep temperatures a bit cooler than today with highs generally in the mid 70s - lower should convection linger over the area for a good portion of the day or higher if the focus of this round of storms stays mostly out of the area. Relatively high flash flood guidance and foliage out in full should limit the stream response to heavy rain, but places that see repeated storms today into Monday could certainly face high water situations. For this reason will continue to highlight this threat in the HWO and also via social media posts. The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to better capture the timing of at least this first MCS today and impart more uncertainty tonight and Monday via the CAMs ideas. As for T and Td - the guidance from the NBM was reasonable through the period. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 355 AM EDT SUN MAY 7 2023 The upper level pattern will feature primarily quasi-zonal flow at the start, as broad troughing is in place across Nova Scotia and through New England, while a suppressed ridge in the Southern Gulf. Further upstream, a series of shortwaves encompass the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest, with futher ripples within the mean flow. At the surface, a weakening low will be meandering through the Ohio Valley with a trailing cold front arcing southwest and approaching from out of the Mid Mississippi Valley. Guidance has generally trended a bit quicker with the progression of the low and associate boundary, with passage by the afternoon Tuesday. CAMs also vary Monday night into Tuesday, but generally depict much lower chances than the blend- likely a cause of the much higher resolution but also tied with the delayed bias associated with the NBM. As such, have largely dialed back PoPs to the likely category (60-70%) with a decreasing trend after 12z Tuesday with the passing frontal boundary. If trends hold, a case for even lower PoPs (quicker decrease) could be made but found this to be the best compromise for now. Upon fropa, weak CAA into Wednesday will allow for cooler temperatures, around seasonable norms for the day. An upper ridge and associated surface high will also slide into the Great Lakes, allowing for dry conditions through Thursday morning. A deep 5H West Coast trough then takes shape, as high pressure breaks east late week. Return flow will place us under the influence of WAA and isentropic upglide could induce the opportunity for low end precipitation chances Thursday afternoon. The ECMWF/EPS are the most bullish with this idea, while the strength of the ridge keeps things dry in other data. Have compromised with slight chance showers/storms in the southern half of the CWA, with better opportunity of mainly diurnally driven convection within the warm sector Friday into the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SUN MAY 7 2023 VFR conditions will prevail as late as 15Z for the TAF sites, as a warm front lifts into our region. A large cluster of showers and storms, dropping from northwest to southeast along that front, will arrive into the aviation forecast area just after 13Z and then move across it through early afternoon hours. VCTS has been included in the TAFs for several hours, generally between 14 and 20Z with the convective activity. Besides the threat for lightning, this area of convection will likely bring at least brief periods of sub-VFR CIGs and/or VIS in the strongest activity. Additionally, the storms could be preceded and attended by strong and erratic wind gusts. Otherwise, light and variable winds initially pick up from the south to southwest on this morning at around 10 kts with gusts pushing 20 kts at times, even outside of any storms. The winds tail off a bit later this evening with another round of storms possible along with their ancillary affect on the terminals during the early morning hours of Monday, though confidence is lower in the timing and extent of this next round of convection. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...BB AVIATION...GREIF
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 340 AM EDT Sun May 7 2023 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-080745- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 340 AM EDT Sun May 7 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms are expected today with a potential for heavy rain. A few of the thunderstorms could become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts the main threat. There is also a chance of thunderstorms tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Thunderstorms are expected at times from Monday through Tuesday evening. Heavy rain may accompany the thunderstorms. A few strong to possibly severe storms are possible Monday. The primary threats with any stronger storms will be damaging wind gusts and hail. Thunderstorms are also possible late Thursday into next weekend, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of high water or severe weather today and Monday. GREIF/BB
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
953 AM EDT Sun May 7 2023
KYZ044-050>052-071445-
Rowan KY-Montgomery KY-Bath KY-Fleming KY-
953 AM EDT Sun May 7 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Montgomery, Bath,
central Fleming and west central Rowan Counties through 1045 AM
EDT...
At 953 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Sherburne to near Sharpsburg to near
Paris. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Sharpsburg, Sherburne and Bethel around 1000 AM EDT.
Pebble and Judy around 1005 AM EDT.
Oakley, Flat Creek, Stoops and Odessa around 1010 AM EDT.
Other locations in the path of these storms include Grange City,
Hillsboro, Wyoming, Reynoldsville, Owingsville, Ringos Mills,
Stepstone, Sideview, Bourbon Furnace, Wades Mill, Kendall Springs,
Preston, Grassy Lick, Crooks, Craigs, Slate Valley, Moore's Ferry,
Peeled Oak, Mount Sterling, Marshall, Prewitt, Olympia, Klondike,
Sharkey, Ramey, Peasticks, Olympia Springs, Hilda, Polksville,
Freestone, Farmers and Ewington.
THIS INCLUDES Interstate 64 in eastern Kentucky between mile markers
105 and 141.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3822 8339 3805 8363 3793 8395 3794 8397
3811 8408 3813 8407 3817 8399 3830 8385
3834 8384 3834 8386 3836 8388 3835 8390
3838 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 1353Z 293DEG 26KT 3832 8386 3821 8402 3813 8429
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
VORSTSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1041 AM EDT Sun May 7 2023
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106-108-111-071515-
Rowan KY-Montgomery KY-Elliott KY-Menifee KY-Lee KY-Estill KY-
Morgan KY-Bath KY-Fleming KY-Powell KY-Wolfe KY-
1041 AM EDT Sun May 7 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Powell, Montgomery,
northwestern Morgan, Bath, Estill, Menifee, north central Lee,
southern Fleming, southern Rowan, northwestern Wolfe and southwestern
Elliott Counties through 1115 AM EDT...
At 1041 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Reynoldsville to Klondike to 7 miles southeast
of Nicholasville. Movement was east at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Levee, Prewitt, Klondike,
Reynoldsville, Kendall Springs, Wades Mill, Odessa and Flat Creek
around 1045 AM EDT.
Marshall, Camargo, Peasticks, Craigs, Slate Valley, Bourbon
Furnace, Coons Station, Upper Spencer, Olympia and Lower Spencer
around 1050 AM EDT.
Jeffersonville, Polksville, Lucky Stop, Moore's Ferry, Bean, Oggs
Station, Hope, Walkers Crossing, Olympia Springs and Peeled Oak
around 1055 AM EDT.
Salt Lick, Midland, Cedar Groves, Clay Lick, Means, Farmers, Ramey
and Young Springs around 1100 AM EDT.
Other locations in the path of these storms include Campsites in the
Indian Creek area of the Daniel Boone National Forrest, Rothwell,
Cornwell, Cogswell, Freestone, Bluestone, Fagan, Tabor, Yale,
Haystack, Morehead, Frenchburg, Fox, Zilpo, Palmer, Brandy, Iron
Mound, Clearfield, Ratlitt, Bangor, Irvine, Ravenna, Wellington,
Wiseman Crossing Station, Pelfrey, Hargett, Lick Fork, Denniston,
Craney and Mariba.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
Bert T. Combs Mountain Parkway between mile markers 13 and 41.
Interstate 64 in eastern Kentucky between mile markers 109 and 138.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3817 8299 3787 8331 3757 8402 3757 8409
3764 8413 3767 8409 3775 8408 3778 8411
3781 8408 3781 8412 3782 8407 3785 8406
3783 8400 3787 8403 3787 8402 3793 8397
3803 8403 3823 8379
TIME...MOT...LOC 1441Z 280DEG 38KT 3816 8382 3800 8400 3782 8446
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
VORSTThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 70 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:03 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was blown down near 1400 Knob Lick Road near Blackburn.
Nickel size hail was observed near Belle Point.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1093983, 1093984.