The combination of a well defined surface dryline, weak upper level disturbances, and strong to extreme instability, resulted in scattered afternoon and evening severe thunderstorms across portions of the Big Country and Concho Valley. The severe storms were mainly north and east of a Rotan to Abilene to San Angelo to Cross Plains line.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJT wrote it up.
The combination of a well defined surface dryline, weak upper level disturbances, and strong to extreme instability, resulted in scattered afternoon and evening severe thunderstorms across portions of the Big Country and Concho Valley. The severe storms were mainly north and east of a Rotan to Abilene to San Angelo to Cross Plains line. The vertical wind shear was strong enough for most of the storms to become supercell thunderstorms. The severe storms produced mainly large to very large hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 7, 1:17 PM CST, 1 hour 48 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 217 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Tomorrow) Issued at 1054 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023 ...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected again today mainly north of I-10 this afternoon and evening... Under broad south to southwesterly flow through the column, ample surface moisture, daytime heating, and increasing instability present across the area again today, another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop today north of I-10 this afternoon and evening. Storm development is expected to begin mid-afternoon as the dryline approaches our western counties and carries on through this evening before the dryline retreats westward again. Modes are also indicating a shortwave disturbance tracking northeasterly across West Central Texas today, which is expected to enhance thunderstorm development across much of the region through this evening. The potential for mid-level cloud development remains a concern today, as it remains a potential limiting factor to the above mentioned thunderstorm development. In areas that see prolonged cloudier conditions are more likely to see a reduction in severe thunderstorms developing over those areas. Hail is expected to be the primary threat initially given the fairly high CAPE values, with a transition to damaging winds becoming the primary threat this evening as the storms become more organized and merge into an line of thunderstorms. The past couple of days this rinse-and- repeat pattern has tended to leave behind outflow boundaries which may be an additional source for convective initiation and isolated tornadoes, so this will need to be monitored as well. Overnight tonight, thunderstorm chances should diminish as the main complex will track further eastward and the dryline retreats, Low temperatures will be mild once again in the mid 60s as the warm humid airmass overspreads the region. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023 Unfortunately, we're starting to sound like a broken record when we say that the warm and unsettled pattern we've been seeing over the past few days is expected to linger for the foreseeable future. While in the upper levels we will be under weak ridging to start the long term, that will not decrease the chances for storms during the day on Tuesday. The same pattern we've been seeing of storms firing off of the dryline in a very moist, highly unstable air mass once the cap erodes with ample daytime heating will take place on Tuesday. Current guidance has the dryline staying much further to the west than the past few days so our western counties will be more under the gun with SPC highlighting a Day 3 Marginal for our western counties. As with the recent string of severe weather, the main threats will start with large to very large hail considering the high amounts of instability and steep mid level lapse rates in the 7.5-8 degC/km range. These storms will evolve into more of a wind threat as they grow upscale with little shear to help them maintain their supercellular structure. Winds out of the southeast will continue to funnel gulf moisture into the area, helping highs Tuesday to climb back into the 90s. A small shift in the pattern will begin on Wednesday as an upper level trough that is expected to move onto the West Coast early Tuesday continues to deepen and drift south into the Desert Southwest. This trough is then expected to eject out of the Desert SOuthwest and into the Central Rockies Wednesday into Thursday. This will cause a surface low to begin to deepen over the Colorado Rockies causing winds tightening our local pressure gradient and increasing winds out of the south to southeast. This will continue to lead to very unstable airmasses though increased cloud cover overhead will limit daytime highs on Wednesday to the 80s. Once again we will see dryline activity, fueled in part by a shortwave perturbation passing overhead. Thursday looks to be a better day for severe weather overall with a much sharper dryline in place and overall better instability. Temperatures will be slightly cooler the later half of the week with the trough approaching decreasing mid level heights. Next weekend continues to show promising potentials for significant widespread rainfall. The upper level pattern continues to remain hard to pin down with varying solutions across the models. Atmospheric profiles look very saturated indicating potential for beneficial rainfall across the area. We'll continue to monitor trends and see if this potential remains through the next few model cycles. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023 Some lingering MVFR ceilings, mainly over KBBD, are beginning to lift to VFR conditions to match other terminals across the area today. MVFR conditions and potentially erratic winds are expected again this afternoon and evening under any thunderstorms that do develop. These will likely be short-lived storms that have the potential to produce large hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings look to fill back in tonight after storms diminish. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 66 94 64 90 / 50 10 20 20 San Angelo 65 97 64 92 / 30 20 20 30 Junction 65 97 64 90 / 10 20 30 30 Brownwood 65 93 63 89 / 30 20 20 30 Sweetwater 65 96 64 92 / 30 10 20 20 Ozona 65 95 63 90 / 10 10 20 30 Brady 66 95 64 89 / 20 20 20 40 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...TP LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...TP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service San Angelo TX 155 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023 TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139- 140-154-155-168>170-081900- Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho- Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford- Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble- Mason- 155 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across much of the area this afternoon and evening, with large hail being the primary threat initially, then transitioning to damaging winds as the storms merge and become more organized into a line of storms. A weak tornado or two can not be ruled out at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday through Thursday. Large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall are possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1132 AM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0722 PM HAIL LAKE BROWNWOOD 31.82N 99.10W
05/06/2023 E1.75 INCH BROWN TX PUBLIC
DIME TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL FALLING.
&&
KBPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1135 AM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0751 PM HAIL 3 E LAKE BROWNWOOD 31.82N 99.05W
05/06/2023 E2.50 INCH BROWN TX PUBLIC
2-2.5 INCH HAIL ESTIMATED TO BE FALLING NEAR
FLAT ROCK CAMPGROUND.
&&
KBPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1136 AM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0745 PM HAIL 2 N BROWNWOOD 31.74N 98.99W
05/06/2023 E1.75 INCH BROWN TX PUBLIC
UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL.
&&
KBPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1138 AM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 PM HAIL 6 SSW BROWNWOOD 31.64N 99.04W
05/06/2023 E1.75 INCH BROWN TX PUBLIC
OFF OF FM 1176 SOUTH OF BROWNWOOD.
&&
KBPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1139 AM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0812 PM HAIL BLANKET 31.82N 98.79W
05/06/2023 E2.00 INCH BROWN TX PUBLIC
&&
KBPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1140 AM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0515 PM HAIL NOVICE 31.99N 99.62W
05/06/2023 E1.50 INCH COLEMAN TX PUBLIC
HALF DOLLAR TO PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL
FALLING.
&&
KBThe San Angelo radar (KSJT), 31 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:05 UTC.
34 hail, 2 thunderstorm wind, 2 flash flood, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The public reported tennis ball size hail falling 4 miles north-northeast of Veribest and was posted on Facebook.
The time is based on radar.
The public reported quarter size hail in Rotan.
There is picture of hail 3 inches in diameter on Facebook in Rotan.
The public reported golf ball size hail in Wingate.
There was a picture of golf ball size hail on Twitter.
A picture was posted on Facebook. The time was based on radar.
The picture was posted on Twitter.
A storm chaser reported golf ball to tennis ball size hail 4 miles east-northeast of Merkel. A picture of the large hail was posted on Twitter.
A trained spotter reported golf ball size hail 4 miles west-southwest of Noodle.
There was pea to quarter size hail reported in Rotan.
A picture of the hail was posted on Facebook.
The public reported golf ball size hail in Sylvester.
A trained spotter reported golf ball size hail 4 miles north-northwest of Mereta.
A trained spotter reported hail 3 inches in diameter 2 miles south of Miles.
A trained spotter reported power poles blown down at the intersection of Farm to Market Rd 1692 and Broom Rd.
The report was from mping.
An NWS employee reported a wind gust of 60 mph at the San Angelo NWS Office.
The Park Service reported golf ball size hail at the Escondido Draw Recreation Area, 24 miles west-southwest of Ozona.
A storm chaser reported hen egg size hail 24 miles southwest of Ozona.
An amateur radio operator reported tennis ball size hail 2 miles east-northeast of Dudley near Highway 36.
The public reported larger than baseball size hail 4 miles east-southeast of Dudley. The time based on radar.
There was quarter size hail reported at Dyess AFB.
A creek running through Merkel has flooded an intersection at South 11th St and Oak St.
The public reported road flooding and vehicles stranded.
There was quarter size hail at South 27th St and Buffalo Gap Rd.
There was quarter size hail reported at the Abilene Regional Airport.
There was quarter size hail reported at the Abilene Regional Airport.
There was quarter size hail reported at Dyess AFB.
The public reported quarter to ping pong ball size hail falling for 15 minutes.
There was golf ball size hail reported at Dyess AFB.
A trained spotter reported golf ball size hail in Abilene.
A storm chaser reported golf ball size hail hitting cars and cracking windshields in Abilene. The video was posted on Twitter.
The public reported golf ball size hail with some larger hail stones on the ground at McMurray University.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1099706, 1099682, 1099685, 1099686, 1099683, 1099688, 1099684, 1099687, 1099694, 1099689, 1099690, 1099695, 1099693, 1099708, 1099692, 1099691, 1099696, 1099709, 1099697, 1099698, 1099714, 1099721, 1099715, 1099710, 1099705, 1099704, 1099711, 1099699, 1099717, 1099720, 1099700, 1099712, 1099713, 1099707, 1099725, 1099724, 1099722, 1099723, 1099726.