Middle to upper level winds were out of the west to southwest, and an upper level disturbance moved over the region from Colorado by the early evening hours. There was a weak surface low to the south with an inverted trough axis over portions of north central Kansas and south central Nebraska extending north of the low.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
Middle to upper level winds were out of the west to southwest, and an upper level disturbance moved over the region from Colorado by the early evening hours. There was a weak surface low to the south with an inverted trough axis over portions of north central Kansas and south central Nebraska extending north of the low. This trough axis set up a frontal zone across Nebraska and Kansas. High based thunderstorms developed to the west of the area along a shortwave trough then moved eastward and encountered increased instability. Mixed layer CAPE was around 1000 to 2000 J/kg and deep layer wind shear was around 50 to 60 knots. There was a slight risk of severe storms from the Storm Prediction Center.
Storms began developing to the west and northwest of the area during the afternoon hours. A cluster of storms moved in from the west and began impacting north central Kansas around 7 pm. This cluster of storms continued moving eastward during the evening hours and extended northward into portions of southern Nebraska. The cluster exited the area around 10:30 pm as it continued tracking eastward across Nebraska. There were several strong to severe wind gusts across north central Kansas and one report of golfball sized hail. One report of thunderstorm wind damage occurred in Mitchell County. The storms went on to produce a few severe wind gusts in Nuckolls and Thayer Counties in Nebraska as well as a wind damage report in Thayer County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 7, 5:25 PM CST, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 625 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023 Key Messages: * Severe storms likely late this afternoon and evening. This is the major concern for at least the next few days. Thunderstorms are expected to move generally eastward across the outlook area, mainly from 5PM to 11PM tonight. The entire outlook area is currently under a Slight Risk of severe storms from SPC (level 2 of 5). Thunderstorms will be capable of producing hail to near the size of golf balls and damaging wind gusts to 60-70 mph. Isolated tornados may also be possible. * A bit of a break from storms is expected Monday, at least during the daytime hours, before a series of rain/thunderstorms return to the area Tuesday through at least Saturday. Chances for thunderstorms during the week will be greatest Thursday, and SPC continues to show a 15 percent severe area in our west on the latest Day 4-8 Outlook. * Continued rainfall chances across much of the outlook area Tuesday through Saturday due to several disturbances in the upper level flow. The latest 7-day QPF from SPC continues to show a widespread 1-2" likely across the entire forecast area, so most, if not all, the area should see some beneficial rain over the next week. * Temperatures remain consistent within the forecast. Highs Monday will be in the 80s across the entire area and Tuesday through Saturday highs will be in the 70s and 80s, with lows in the 50s nearly every night. A few high clouds are moving across the area this afternoon, but of greater concern are the thunderstorms firing up to the west and northwest of the outlook area along a shortwave trough. As predicted, these are at least starting out with relatively high bases. Leaned heavily toward short term CAM guidance for PoPs this evening, and those seem to be initiating pretty well this afternoon. With ample 0-6 km shear and 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE across the forecast area, expect thunderstorm activity to increase as the shortwave moves across the area this afternoon and evening. Hail and gusty winds will be the main threats with these storms, with hail to near the size of golf balls and thunderstorm wind gusts to 60-70 mph expected. Also cannot rule out a few isolated tornadoes, but with the higher cloud bases and not great 0-1 km shear we should reiterate these are expected to be isolated. All these parameters will be "better" for severe storms further east toward far eastern Nebraska and Iowa. The greatest timeframe for severe storms will be around 5PM to 11PM...after midnight much of the area should remain storm free. Monday: Models continue to predict that Monday will be dry during the daytime hours and relatively cloud free under surface high pressure. With that, I nudged high temperatures a couple of degrees above forecast guidance, which served to really continue the going temperature forecast, which was for highs in the low to mid-80s across the entire area. Monday night - Tuesday morning will be the introduction of the first of several shortwaves helping to bring in showers and thunderstorms to the area...currently these do not look to be severe. High temperatures will be in the 70s north to the 80s south, and these highs will be much the same through Saturday. Tuesday-Wednesday: The area will be under general southwest flow aloft with shortwave disturbances amplifying precipitation chances. Wednesday, an upper low over the desert Southwest will move northeast into Colorado Wednesday evening, bringing our area increased chances for precipitation associated with yet another shortwave and more southerly flow aloft. Thursday: As the upper low moves north into the Nebraska panhandle, there will be an increase chance of thunderstorms, particularly across western portions of the forecast area...and SPC has introduced a 15% chance of severe storms during that timeframe. Friday-Saturday: Model guidance differs on how quickly the upper low shifts north of the area, so stuck with the blend especially this far out. Suffice to say there will be chances of showers/thunderstorms both days, but how great a chance is tough to say at this point. Models indicate a pretty strong area of high pressure moving into the area by next Sunday, so if that persists, that may be the beginning of some drier weather moving into the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023 TSRA is expected to impact the terminals in the next 2 to 3 hours. Low ceilings are possible beginning around 06z and continuing until around 15z but confidence is not high enough to include at this time. Northeast to north winds will continue through much of the overnight period then become northwesterly by 12z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...Schuldt
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Hastings NE 334 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 082045- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 334 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Anytime after roughly 4 PM, thunderstorm development will be possible. The entire outlook area is under a Slight Risk of severe storms, primarily from 5 PM through 11PM. Currently, scattered thunderstorm development is expected across mainly central and eastern Nebraska, although northern Kansas will probably see some thunderstorm activity as well. These storms will sweep across the area from west to east, and there will be a threat of large hail and severe winds with them. They will be capable of producing hail to at least golf ball size and wind gusts to around 60 MPH, with more damaging winds around 70 MPH possible especially if an organized, larger storm complex develops. With the strongest supercells, an isolated tornado is also possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Between Monday night and Saturday, there are several, on-and-off chances for thunderstorms within the area, as we remain in an active weather pattern. That being said, it will be difficult to predict specific day-to-day thunderstorm chances with much confidence, especially more than a day or two in advance, so please note that some of these chances could fluctuate upward or downward noticeably as they get closer in time. It will also be difficult to confidently assess the potential for severe thunderstorms more than a day or two in advance, although the outlook area is not currently under an official risk of severe storms for Monday or Tuesday. However, chances for some severe activity could return mid-to-late week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of severe weather that might occur late this afternoon into tonight. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
658 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023
NEZ049-064-080045-
York NE-Polk NE-
658 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern York and
southeastern Polk Counties through 745 PM CDT...
At 658 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Waco, or 9 miles east of York, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of eastern York and
southeastern Polk Counties, including the following locations...
Thayer.
This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 356 and 365.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
east central Nebraska.
&&
LAT...LON 4072 9747 4087 9759 4117 9740 4115 9737
4074 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 232DEG 26KT 4084 9743
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH
Billings WrightSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
703 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023
KSZ017-080045-
Rooks KS-
703 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Rooks County through
745 PM CDT...
At 702 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Nicodemus to 9 miles north of Ogallah.
Movement was east at 20 mph. Blowing dust ahead of the line will
cause reductions to visibility.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and blowing dust.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Webster State Park around 720 PM CDT.
Other locations in the path of these storms include Stockton.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
north central Kansas.
&&
LAT...LON 3944 9960 3943 9904 3942 9904 3913 9920
3913 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 284DEG 17KT 3943 9954 3913 9970
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
WekesserPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
722 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0713 PM TSTM WND GST 10 SSE LOGAN 39.54N 99.48W
05/07/2023 M56 MPH ROOKS KS MESONET
AMBIENT WEATHER STATION.
&&
MANGELSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
724 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0713 PM TSTM WND GST 10 SSE LOGAN 39.54N 99.48W
05/07/2023 M53 MPH ROOKS KS MESONET
CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND GST REPORT FROM
10 SSE LOGAN. AMBIENT WEATHER STATION.
&&
MANGELSThe Grand Island radar (KUEX), 127 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:25 UTC.
8 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A wind gust of 62 MPH was measured by a mesonet station located four miles north-northeast of Webster State Park.
A wind gust of 60 MPH was measured by a mesonet station located eight miles south-southeast of Glade.
A wind gust of 71 MPH was measured by a mesonet station located one mile south-southwest of Stockton.
A wind gust of 68 MPH was measured by a trained spotter located three miles east-northeast of Woodston.
A wind gust of 58 MPH was measured by a mesonet station located seven miles southeast of Osborne.
A wind gust of 60 MPH was measured by the Smith Center Airport AWOS.
A wind gust of 61 MPH was measured by a mesonet station located in Jewell.
A wind gust of 59 MPH was measured by a mesonet station located in Beloit.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1096300, 1096301, 1096303, 1096305, 1096306, 1096307, 1096308, 1096309, 1096310.