Hail and Damaging Wind in Kentucky, May 7, 2023

Name: Hail and Damaging Wind in Kentucky, May 7, 2023
Start: 2023-05-07T11:05
End: 2023-05-07T17:15
Location: Kentucky

May 7, 2023 · NWS PAH · 10 events in 7 counties and zones

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm cells developed over the Pennyrile region (east of Kentucky Lake) during the afternoon. These storms produced large hail.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $5,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 10

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm cells developed over the Pennyrile region (east of Kentucky Lake) during the afternoon. These storms produced large hail. During the late afternoon, isolated severe thunderstorms developed near the Mississippi River and crossed the Purchase area (west of Kentucky Lake). These storms were associated with large hail up to the size of tennis balls and isolated tree damage. A warm and humid air mass was present in the afternoon, with temperatures in the mid 80's and dew points near 70. Instability was quite strong, with mixed-layer cape values around 3000 J/kg. A mid-level shortwave trough traversed southern Missouri. This trough interacted with the unstable, uncapped air mass to spawn the storms over west Kentucky. Residual outflow boundaries from morning storms provided a focus for development. Effective bulk wind shear around 30 knots supported some multicellular clusters.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 7, 5:53 AM CST, 5 hours 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 7, 5:53 AM CST, 5 hours 12 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
653 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

The main focus in the short term is the potential for multiple
complexes of showers and thunderstorms through Monday night.
Forecast confidence in the occurrence of precipitation during this
time frame is higher than average, but confidence is average at
best with respect to timing and placement of individual convective
systems.

As an upper level ridge over the Mississippi River Valley flattens
today and the mid level capping inversion erodes, showers and
thunderstorm are expected to be in more abundance today than the
past couple of days. Helping to aid in the storm activity are
perturbations and outflow boundaries associated with two overnight
mesoscale convective systems. One north of the region in Illinois
and Indiana is forecast to approach northern and eastern portions
of the forecast area this morning. The other over western Arkansas
is forecast to largely diminish through early morning as it heads
east. However, the remnants of both of these systems will likely
combine with a moderate degree of instability, aided by daytime
heating and near 70 degree dewpoints, to spark scattered/numerous
thunderstorms throughout the day. Although the overall bulk shear
will be relatively weak, there could be enough for at least some
storm organization. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern
with the stronger storms, and hail will also be a concern with the
stronger updrafts. Generally relied on a blend of the 00Z HRW NSSL,
HRW ARW, and HRRR, which demonstrated the best correlation to the
overnight convective activity.

Even though thunderstorm activity may last well into the evening,
some decrease in storm coverage is expected by late evening and
overnight with the loss of daytime heating. Our attention then
turns to yet another MCS forecast to fire over the Mid Missouri
Valley this evening. This convective complex is forecast by the
aforementioned CAMs to dive southeast toward the forecast area by
daybreak Monday. If these solutions are to be followed verbatim,
most of the storm activity on Monday would occur during the
morning hours, with a relative lull in the activity during the
afternoon as the atmosphere attempts to recharge. However, if the
convective remnants don't make passage in the morning as currently
forecast, then much stronger instability could develop Monday
afternoon. And with an uptick in bulk shear forecast, strong to
severe thunderstorms would be more likely to develop during the
afternoon. At this time, our forecast delays the development of
this additional activity until Monday night as a cold frontal
boundary makes passage from north to south through the region.

By Tuesday, shower and thunderstorm chances should significantly
drop off as long as the frontal boundary is able to make complete
passage. Maintained slightly better chances across the southern
half of the area in closer proximity to the anticipated boundary
positioning. However, it's entirely possible that most of Tuesday
may turn out dry.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

Post fropa, the long term begins with northeasterlies drawing in
some lower humidity, thereby muting rain chances, at least
temporarily. A subsequent mid level ridge moves overtop and then
east of the region by Thursday, and return flow southerlies
recommence. Humidity, and daily rain chances, soon follow, again
peaking during the most unstable heating hours of the afternoon. The
NBM may well be overdone with Wed-Thu pops that do exist, but by
Friday into the weekend, it's picking up on the increasing trend
with the return of the summery-like pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 652 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

MVFR ceilings should prevail through most of the morning before
improving to VFR by late morning and early afternoon. A decaying
line of showers and thunderstorms will push south into southwest
Indiana, southeast Illinois, and northwest Kentucky trough the
morning. Additional scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
forecast to develop during the late morning and afternoon across
the region. Restrictions to MVFR/IFR are possible beneath the
heaviest activity. The shower and storm activity should gradually
diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating, but more
activity may move in from the northwest towards daybreak Monday.
Southwest winds around 10 knots with occasional gusts to 20 knots
today will become southerly at 5 to 10 knots tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...RJP
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...RJP

Hazardous weather outlook, May 7, 2:56 AM CST, 8 hours 9 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
356 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-081000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
356 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023 /456 AM EDT Sun May 7 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast today into
tonight. A few of the storms may become severe with damaging
winds and large hail the main concerns. Thunderstorms will also
produce lightning and torrential downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast Monday and Monday
night. Some of the thunderstorms may become severe with damaging
winds and large hail the main severe hazards. Thunderstorms will
also produce lightning and torrential downpours.

Daily storm chances diminish mid week, then increase by late week,
and are highest by Friday and Saturday afternoons. Locally heavy
rain and lightning will be the primary storm hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to monitor the latest conditions should
their assistance be needed today through Monday night.

RJP/DH

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 7, 8:55 AM CST, 2 hours 10 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
955 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

ILZ086-087-090-091-KYZ010-014-071545-
Saline IL-Gallatin IL-Pope IL-Hardin IL-Crittenden KY-Union KY-
955 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Hardin, northern
Pope, southern Saline, southwestern Gallatin, northwestern Crittenden
and southwestern Union Counties through 1045 AM CDT...

At 955 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Carrier Mills, or 12 miles south of Harrisburg, moving
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Sturgis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3737 8795 3747 8871 3765 8869 3764 8792
TIME...MOT...LOC 1455Z 275DEG 35KT 3756 8861

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DW

Local storm report, May 7, 9:02 AM CST, 2 hours 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1002 AM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     HAIL             4 NNE GOREVILLE         37.62N 88.96W
05/07/2023  M0.75 INCH       WILLIAMSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Local storm report, May 7, 9:40 AM CST, 1 hour 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1040 AM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     HAIL             NEW BURNSIDE            37.58N 88.77W
05/07/2023  E1.75 INCH       JOHNSON            IL   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY MEDIA.

&&

Special weather statement, May 7, 10:00 AM CST, 1 hour 5 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1100 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

ILZ083-087-091-INZ085-086-KYZ010-013>016-018>021-071645-
White IL-Gallatin IL-Hardin IL-Posey IN-Vanderburgh IN-Webster KY-
Union KY-Caldwell KY-McLean KY-Hopkins KY-Muhlenberg KY-Henderson KY-
Crittenden KY-Daviess KY-
1100 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of east central Hardin,
southeastern White, northeastern Gallatin, southwestern Vanderburgh,
southern Posey, Henderson, northern Caldwell, Hopkins, Daviess,
Muhlenberg, northeastern Crittenden, McLean, Union and Webster
Counties through 1145 AM CDT...

At 1100 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles south of Carmi to 6 miles west of
Earlington to Morgantown. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Madisonville around 1105 AM CDT.
  Earlington around 1110 AM CDT.
  Mortons Gap around 1115 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Nortonville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 165 between Mile Markers 60 and 70.
 Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 101 and 148.
 Western Kentucky Parkway between Mile Markers 39 and 65.
 Pennyrile Parkway between Mile Markers 33 and 34.
 Audubon Parkway between Mile Markers 1 and 23.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3767 8682 3763 8695 3747 8711 3748 8713
      3738 8710 3734 8714 3733 8710 3737 8707
      3735 8701 3727 8698 3721 8690 3715 8693
      3721 8768 3747 8810 3807 8819 3780 8714
      3778 8712 3779 8708 3775 8682 3771 8686
TIME...MOT...LOC 1600Z 348DEG 21KT 3796 8813 3730 8763 3724 8671

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DW

Special weather statement, May 7, 10:13 AM CST, 52 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1113 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

ILZ075>078-080>083-085>087-091-INZ081-085-KYZ014-071700-
White IL-Gallatin IL-Hardin IL-Wayne IL-Perry IL-Saline IL-
Edwards IL-Franklin IL-Hamilton IL-Jefferson IL-Williamson IL-
Wabash IL-Posey IN-Gibson IN-Union KY-
1113 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Wayne,
southwestern Wabash, Jefferson, Saline, Franklin, northeastern
Hardin, White, southern Edwards, northeastern Williamson, Hamilton,
Gallatin, western Gibson, western Posey and southwestern Union
Counties through NOON CDT...

At 1112 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles south of Ashley to near Thompsonville
to 6 miles west of Sturgis. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Wayne,
southwestern Wabash, Jefferson, Saline, Franklin, northeastern
Hardin, White, southern Edwards, northeastern Williamson, Hamilton,
Gallatin, western Gibson, western Posey and southwestern Union
Counties, including the following locations... Burnt Prairie, Karbers
Ridge, Muddy, Hanaford, Golden Gate, Phillipstown, Waltonville,
Omaha, Dahlgren and Ewing.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 57 in Illinois between Mile Markers 69 and 96.
 Interstate 64 in Indiana between Mile Markers 1 and 2.
 Interstate 64 in Illinois between Mile Markers 73 and 130.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3835 8792 3747 8810 3747 8812 3781 8880
      3821 8919 3821 8915 3833 8914 3839 8836
TIME...MOT...LOC 1612Z 041DEG 14KT 3823 8921 3789 8876 3755 8812

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DW

Special weather statement, May 7, 10:41 AM CST, 24 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1141 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

KYZ010-013-015>017-020-021-071730-
Muhlenberg KY-Crittenden KY-Webster KY-Christian KY-Caldwell KY-
McLean KY-Hopkins KY-
1141 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Muhlenberg, eastern
Crittenden, northeastern Christian, northeastern Caldwell,
southeastern McLean, Hopkins and southern Webster Counties through
1230 PM CDT...

At 1141 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Providence to near Nortonville to 12 miles
south of Morgantown. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Dawson Springs.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 90 and 127.
 Western Kentucky Parkway between Mile Markers 39 and 65.
 Pennyrile Parkway between Mile Markers 27 and 34.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3709 8689 3705 8709 3711 8745 3720 8782
      3751 8789 3751 8709 3747 8711 3748 8713
      3746 8711 3738 8710 3734 8714 3733 8710
      3737 8707 3735 8701 3727 8698 3721 8690
      3718 8689 3718 8692 3714 8693 3711 8689
TIME...MOT...LOC 1641Z 002DEG 22KT 3734 8780 3716 8745 3704 8675

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DW

The radar

The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 54 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:02 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

9 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Hail, Hopkins

When: May 7, 11:05 AM CST
Where: Hopkins County, Nortonville
Measured: 1.25 in hail
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 37.200, -87.470

Hail, Christian

When: May 7, 2:30 PM CST
Where: Christian County, 4 mi ESE of Oak Grove
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 36.648, -87.363

The hail was reported at the welcome center rest stop along Interstate 24.

Hail, Trigg

When: May 7, 2:38 PM CST to 2:44 PM CST
Where: Trigg County, 3 mi NNW of Cadiz to 2 mi NW of Cadiz
Measured: 1.25 in hail
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 36.910, -87.841

The hail was reported from quarter to half-dollar size.

Hail, Christian

When: May 7, 3:05 PM CST
Where: Christian County, Herndon
Measured: 1.75 in hail
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 36.730, -87.570

Hail, Ballard

When: May 7, 3:38 PM CST
Where: Ballard County, Wickliffe
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 36.970, -89.080

Thunderstorm Wind, Ballard

When: May 7, 4:02 PM CST
Where: Ballard County, Gage
Measured: 56 kt (64 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $5,000
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 36.980, -88.880

Several trees were down in the Gage area along Highway 286.

Hail, McCracken

When: May 7, 4:05 PM CST
Where: McCracken County, 4 mi SSW of Heath
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 37.026, -88.828

The hail was reported in far west McCracken County along Childress Road.

Hail, Marshall

When: May 7, 4:51 PM CST
Where: Marshall County, 3 mi NNW of Brewers
Measured: 2.25 in hail
Reported by: Broadcast Media
Coordinates: 36.810, -88.451

A photo of roughly 2.25 inch hail was posted by a local broadcast station.

Hail, Ballard

When: May 7, 5:02 PM CST
Where: Ballard County, Bandana
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 37.150, -88.950

Hail, Calloway

When: May 7, 5:15 PM CST
Where: Calloway County, 4 mi SW of Dexter to 3 mi SSW of Dexter
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 36.709, -88.331

What these are

Hail: Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.
Thunderstorm Wind: Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Kentucky in 2023 Every state in 2023 This day in weather history Warnings in Kentucky, May 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1087477, 1087478, 1087479, 1087480, 1087481, 1087486, 1087482, 1087483, 1087484, 1087485.