A strong storm system led to significant impacts. 5 inches produced areas of flash flooding, with numerous road closures.
Every event with a place to put it; 22 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A strong storm system led to significant impacts. Heavy rainfall amounts of 3 to 4.5 inches produced areas of flash flooding, with numerous road closures. The heavy rain drove the Ohio River above flood stage at Uniontown. Very strong wind gusts occurred, ranging between 50 and about 70 mph. These were associated with both thunderstorms and gradient winds afterwards. The line of storms moved through during the late morning and early afternoon, and then very strong gradient winds continued for several hours afterwards through the afternoon. An indirect fatality occurred the following day during cleanup operations. A 69-year-old man in Calloway County was killed when a large branch landed on him while he was cutting up the tree. The magnitude and duration of this wind produced significant damage to trees, power lines, and other outdoor property such as fences. Soggy ground due to the excessive rainfall likely contributed to some trees being more susceptible to being blown over. Numerous power outages occurred, some lasting into the following day. Six tornadoes occurred along the line of thunderstorms across western Kentucky. The strongest was rated EF-2 just south of Paducah. Finally, the lowest barometric pressure of all-time was observed in Paducah (977.7 mb). The center of the record strong low pressure system tracked from the bootheel of extreme southeast Missouri northeast right along the Ohio River. Very strong southwest winds occurred on the back side of the low pressure system in the afternoon. Gusts were up to around 60 mph. A semi was blown over on Interstate 24 in Trigg County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 3, 5:47 AM CST, 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
547 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 224 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023
Multiple weather impacts expected across the Quad State area today.
Heavy rain/flooding potential will continue to be the greatest
concern with some very impactful flash flooding possible, especially
this morning. The Flood Watch for Flash Flooding continues with this
update along with the Wind Advisory. Winds could gust as high as 50
to 55 mph through early afternoon. Severe weather will be possible
this morning as well with a line of thunderstorms expected to pass
through the area from west to east. Much stronger wind gusts could
be pulled down to the surface (the greatest threat) with the storms
and a tornado or two could spin up along the line. Still may end up
seeing the lowest barometric pressure on record!
Today: A potent piece of negatively tilted upper-level energy, over
central Arkansas early this morning, will lift northeastward
directly over the Quad State area through early afternoon. As this
happens, the surface low will deepen before becoming vertically
stacked later this afternoon.
Flooding/Heavy Rain Potential: Everything still appears to be on
track with the very heavy rainfall potential through the morning
hours. PWAT values are analyzed around 300% of normal, which is
approaching 1.5 inches with very strong moisture transport on a 60kt
low-level. Again, moisture is readily available with moisture flow
directly north from the Gulf! The HREF PMM continues to highlight a
band of very heavy rainfall this morning on the southeast side of
the intensifying surface low, with some rainfall totals approaching
4 to 5 inches between 06Z and 18Z. Rainfall rates could exceed 1
inch per hour and some of the guidance is actually painting out 2
inches per hour at times this morning. Hourly Flash Flood Guidance
is between 1 and 2 inches across a good portion of the area, but is
most concerning over southeast Missouri, western Kentucky and
portions southwest Illinois (the areas that may see the most
precipitation). After coordinating with the WPC the moderate risk
area was expanded to include a large portion of the CWA with the
exception of the far eastern counties in Kentucky and portions of
southwest Indiana. Rainfall totals are still expected to be in the 2
to 4 inch range across a good portion of the area with a band
possibly exceeding 4 inches across far western KY, southeast MO and
southern IL. The band of heaviest rainfall will likely create
significant impacts.
Wind Potential: The pressure gradient will tighten significantly
across the area through the day Friday as the aforementioned low
pressure system deepens overhead. This will lead to sustained winds
out of the southwest (this morning) shifting northwest (this
afternoon) at or around 25 to 35 mph. There is a great deal of wind
just off the surface (close to 70kts), which may mix down later this
morning into this afternoon with and after frontal passage. This
will be as the sounding becomes more unstable and deeply mixed.
Momentum transfer would suggest wind gusts approaching the 45 to 55
mph range by mid to late morning across much of the Quad State. In
fact, most models are showing a similar scenario. The high end Wind
Advisory still looks good with some of the strongest winds likely
associated with a line of convection. Tree damage and power outages
will be likely with these wind gusts, especially with the overly
saturated soils.
Severe Weather Potential: High Res guidance continues to show a
broken to solid line of convection developing to the southwest of
the area this morning around 12Z before quickly lifting
northeastward. This will be along and ahead of the cold front. It
still looks like there will be a very brief window ahead of the
front where SBCAPE advects into the CWA, mainly impacting western
KY, far southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. If the storms are
indeed surface based, they could easily drag some of the very strong
winds down to the surface from aloft. These winds could easily be
around or in excess of 60 mph. Damaging winds will be the main
threat from the line of thunderstorms. Helicity is robust ahead of
the front as well, lending more support to an isolated spin up. As
far as timing goes, the latest guidance would suggest the greatest
threat would be between 7 am in SEMO to around 11 am for the far
eastern counties in western Kentucky and southwest Indiana.
Tonight and Saturday: Dry high pressure will build across the area
through this time period, allowing for a break in the precipitation
and much lighter winds. There will likely be some clouds that linger
and possibly a wrap around shower this evening, but that is expected
to be fairly short-lived. Overnight lows are expected to drop into
the mid to upper 30s. High temperatures are expected to be in the
upper 50s for Saturday.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 224 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023
High pressure will keep our area dry Saturday night through Sunday
night. Temperatures will be just a few degrees above normal
Saturday night with lows in the middle 30s to around 40 degrees. The
high moving off to our east Sunday will bring a return of southerly
winds, and this will give us highs in the 60s. Lows Sunday night
will only be a few degrees below our normal high temperatures, with
readings around 50 degrees.
Southwest winds will increase across the middle Mississippi and
lower Ohio valleys Sunday night and Monday ahead of an approaching
cold front, with breezy conditions expected Monday with gusts of 25
to 30 mph. The will help push temperatures into the lower to middle
70s. Models take a surface low from eastern Kansas at 06z Monday
into the southern Great Lakes region by 00z Tuesday, then over New
York by 12z Tuesday. Models are in pretty good agreement showing
the attendant cold front moving through the PAH forecast area Monday
afternoon into Monday night, hanging up across the Gulf Coast States
Tuesday. Would not be surprised if eventually have some small PoPs
in the Monday afternoon time frame. For now, the NBM produces slight
chances of light rain across our eastern half of counties Monday
night, and a rumble of thunder is not out of the question in
southern portions of west Kentucky during the evening hours. Any
QPF will be light. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday morning.
Models are coming into a little better agreement for Tuesday
afternoon and beyond. ECMWF and the Canadian show a deepening upper
level trof over the Rockies and Central and Northern Plains Tuesday
night into Wednesday night, slowly sliding eastward through the
latter part of the week. GFS is much less defined with this
feature, but still shows some decent agreement with ECMWF and
Canadian with rain chances by Wednesday night. The NBM spreads rain
across the PAH forecast area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening,
and continues chance to slight chance PoPs across our area through
Thursday. Believe we will have a couple of dry periods some time in
that time frame, especially across our eastern counties, but model
discrepancies make it too difficult to pinpoint when that will be.
Much fine tuning will continue over the next few days.
One area of better confidence is our region will be in consistent
north to northeast surface flow Tuesday through Wednesday, becoming
northwest by Thursday. Temperatures will be trending cooler, with
readings potentially a little below normal toward the end of the
week. This could mean temperatures back down near the freezing mark
Wednesday night across our northern counties. The NBM shows a
possibility of some snow mixing in with the rain north of Interstate
64 late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Nothing of any
consequence, but something to watch after becoming accustomed to the
unusually warm conditions over the last few weeks.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 526 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023
Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the
TAF period, impact each TAF site. Some stronger thunderstorms will
be possible this morning before gradually diminishing from west to
east into early this afternoon. Wind will become very gusty,
approaching or exceeding 40 kts at times across a good portion of
the area as a very strong low pressure system passes through.
Winds will diminish tonight into Saturday as high pressure builds
across the area.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch until noon CST today for ILZ075>078-080>094.
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Flood Watch until noon CST today for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-
114.
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...Flood Watch until noon CST /1 PM EST/ today for INZ081-082-
085>088.
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST /10 PM EST/ this evening for INZ081-
082-085>088.
KY...Flood Watch until noon CST today for KYZ001>016-018>020.
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for KYZ001>022.
&&
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...KCHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 448 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-041100- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 448 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 /548 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A Flood Watch continues through noon today. Refer to the Watch product for details. There is a risk for severe thunderstorms, mainly in the morning and midday hours. Damaging winds, and a brief tornado or two will be possible, primarily across west Kentucky, the southern tip of Illinois and possibly southwest Indiana. Strong non thunderstorms winds to 55 mph are also forecast. Refer to the Wind Advisory for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any flooding or wind damage to the National Weather Service in Paducah. The main time period will be this morning through very early this afternoon.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
431 AM CST FRI MAR 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0429 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 NE GORHAM 37.75N 89.43W
03/03/2023 JACKSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
DITCHES OVERFLOWING ONTO ROADWAYS, ROADWAYS
NOT PASSABLE IN PLACES.
&&
JGGPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
452 AM CST FRI MAR 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0442 AM FLOOD 5 NNW BROUGHTON 38.00N 88.49W
03/03/2023 HAMILTON IL COUNTY OFFICIAL
WATER OVER BOTH LANES OF STATE RT. 142 NEAR
DIGBY ROAD, ABOUT AN INCH DEEP.
&&
RSTPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
531 AM CST FRI MAR 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0523 AM FLOOD MCLEANSBORO 38.09N 88.54W
03/03/2023 HAMILTON IL COUNTY OFFICIAL
WATER OVER E. RANDOLPH STREET IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN MCLEANSBORO, AND STATE RT. 142.
&&
RSTPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
536 AM CST FRI MAR 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0527 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 W NEWBURGH 37.95N 87.46W
03/03/2023 M2.10 INCH VANDERBURGH IN PUBLIC
SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS ON
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF EVANSVILLE.
&&
RSTPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
539 AM CST FRI MAR 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0534 AM FLOOD ROYALTON 37.88N 89.11W
03/03/2023 FRANKLIN IL EMERGENCY MNGR
WATER OVER ROAD IN CENTER OF TOWN, MINOR
WATER ISSUES IN OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTY.
&&
RSTThe Paducah radar (KPAH), 39 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:58 UTC.
18 high wind, 15 thunderstorm wind, 11 flash flood, 5 tornado, 4 strong wind, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Kentucky Highway 80 West was closed at the 2.8 mile marker in Arlington, just west of U.S. Highway 51. Kentucky Highway 307 was closed near the 7 mile marker, between Kentucky 121 and U.S. Highway 62 due to flooding.
Flash flooding closed several roads in McCracken County. Kentucky 1255 was closed at the 1 to 2 mile marker, just west of the Kentucky 450 intersection. Kentucky 994 was closed at the 5.5 to 5.7 mile markers at the Kentucky 1410 intersection, due to flooding of Champion Creek. Kentucky 1410 was closed near Champion Creek from the 3.2 to 3.7 mile marker.
Flooding was curb deep in the city of Henderson on Green River Road among other streets. Four miles south-southeast of Henderson, water was covering part of the roadway on U.S. Highway 41 South at Smith Staples Road.
Harris Fork Creek was overflowing and flooding downtown Fulton. Kentucky Highway 94 was closed from the 7 to 11 mile markers in the lower bottomlands between Kentucky 311 and Kentucky 1099 due to water over the road.
U.S. Highway 62 was closed at the Carlisle County line, where Mayfield Creek flows under the roadway.
Kentucky Route 1949 was closed at the 7 to 9 mile marker near the I-69 tunnel.
U.S. Highway 51 was closed north and south of Clinton due to flooding. Kentucky Highway 307 was closed at the 13 to 14 mile markers. Kentucky 58 was closed at the 7 to 8 mile markers due to flooding.
Water was running across the road in places.
A few state highways were closed due to high water, including Highways 760, 132, and 138. The westbound lane of U.S. Highway 60 was closed at the 8 mile marker. Some county roads were also affected by high water.
U.S. Highway 62 experienced localized flooding between Calvert City and Possum Trot. Some side roads were covered.
A wind gust to 72 mph was measured at a Kentucky mesonet site.
The wind gusted to 65 mph at a Kentucky mesonet site.
Several state roads were closed due to high water in Webster County, including Highways 132, 270, 138, and 2836. A few other state roads were open but covered with water. Some county roads were also affected by flooding.
An EF-2 tornado began at 11:08 AM CST just west of the intersection of Old Mayfield Road and McNeil Road. Traveling north-northeast, the tornado paralleled Old Mayfield Road, doing significant roof, siding, and fascia damage to numerous homes and a few businesses. A few homes had most of their roofing structures completely removed. Several outbuildings were completely destroyed. County emergency management officials assessed the damage and found four homes were destroyed and 68 homes were damaged. Numerous wooden power poles were snapped or tilted by tornadic winds. After crossing Hardmoney Road, the tornado did damage to homes, trees, and outbuildings along Michael Drive West before dissipating around 11:10 AM CST. Dozens of trees were uprooted or snapped, and dozens more suffered major tree limb damage. Additionally, strong straight-line inflow winds of 80 to 90 mph caused tree damage and minor structural damage along Michael Drive East. Peak winds were estimated near 125 mph.
Several trees were down in the Greenville/Central City area.
A large tree limb punched through a truck windshield and injured the driver. The driver was extricated from the truck by rescue workers and transported to a hospital.
Multiple power lines and poles were down in the city. A wind gust to 63 mph was measured on a personal weather station.
A trained spotter estimated 70 mph wind gusts.
A wind gust to 63 mph was measured at a personal weather station.
A wind gust to 69 mph was clocked at a Kentucky mesonet site.
An EF-1 tornado began just southeast of the Sturgis Municipal Airport. Traveling north-northeast, the tornado partially demolished three separate large barns along its path. The tornado also snapped or uprooted several trees and downed dozens of large tree limbs. The tornado roughly paralleled Poplar Ridge Road initially. After crossing Kentucky Highway 270, the tornado then passed along Kentucky Highway 1177 before disappearing near the intersection of Kentucky Highways 1177 and 758, just northwest of the community of Pride. Peak winds were estimated near 95 mph.
An EF-1 tornado struck far western Union County. Moving north-northeast, the tornado began near the intersection of IV Runyon Road and Geiger Lake Road. The tornado damaged several trees in this area as well as producing minor roof and fascia damage to a couple of homes. When the tornado reached the intersection of Kentucky Highways 56 and 109, it removed a portion of the roof from a large outbuilding and parts of roofing and fascia from a small convenience store. Just north of Highway 56, the tornado snapped approximately five large hardwood trees and downed several large tree limbs before dissipating. Peak winds were estimated near 100 mph.
A weak EF-0 tornado traversed the Ohio River bottomlands in far western Union County, KY. The damage was limited to downed large tree limbs scattered along a path from Goose Pond Road, extending north along Kentucky Highway 871, ending just to the northeast of the community of Raleigh. Peak winds were estimated near 75 mph.
A wind gust to 71 mph was measured at the Fort Campbell airfield. Nearby at Oak Grove, a pole barn was destroyed and trees were down.
A wind gust to 67 mph was measured at the mesonet site six miles north of Hopkinsville. Four miles west-northwest of town, shingles and siding were blown off houses and trees were down.
A barn was damaged on Highway 56, a shed was damaged at wmsk radio station, and a roof was damaged on the Union/Henderson County line. A wind gust to 63 mph was measured at a site four miles east of Morganfield.
An EF-1 tornado passed just to the west of the Smith Mills community in Henderson County. The tornado developed along JJ Utley Road. Traveling north-northeast along Greenlick Baptist Church Road, the tornado destroyed a farm outbuilding. The tornado crossed Kentucky Highway 359 just south of Smith Mills where several trees suffered extensive large limb damage. Continuing north-northeast, the tornado passed through a cemetery along Grandpa Jones Road where several large trees were snapped. The tornado diminished as it reached Kentucky Highway 136 just west of Smith Mills. Peak winds were estimated near 95 mph.
A house suffered major roof shingle loss on Highway 351 just east of Zion. Further down the road on route 351, a large barn lost part of its roof.
A semi was blown over on Interstate 24 just west of the Cadiz exit to U.S. 68.
The Kentucky mesonet site measured a wind gust to 65 mph.
A trained spotter estimated winds gusted to 60 mph.
Trees were down in Owensboro. Three miles west of Owensboro, a mobile home was lifted and moved about 4 to 5 feet. A nearby carport was moved into a neighbor's yard. Several barns were destroyed in the area.
Minor flooding occurred on the Ohio River. Low-lying woods and fields near the river were inundated.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Wind, Calloway | 2023-03-04 | 69 | Male | Under Tree | Indirect |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Kentucky, 2023Warnings in Kentucky, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1082940, 1082941, 1082949, 1082942, 1082944, 1082934, 1082945, 1082947, 1085394, 1082943, 1080127, 1080128, 1080449, 1080450, 1080451, 1080452, 1085393, 1080126, 1080129, 1080136, 1080130, 1080132, 1080454, 1080455, 1080137, 1080138, 1080445, 1080456, 1080457, 1080458, 1080446, 1080447, 1080133, 1080135, 1080140, 1080444, 1080145, 1080459, 1080460, 1080461, and more.