A strong upper level storm system and intense surface low pressure moved from the Southern Plains to the Mississippi Valley during the wee morning hours of Friday, March 3rd. The surface low pressure system rapidly deepened during the day on Friday as it passed just north of the Ohio River and broke long-standing minimum pressure records at multiple locations. At Paducah, which has records dating back to 1937, the sea level pressure bottomed out at 977.7 mb, well below the previous minimum pressure record of 981 mb set in 1960. At Evansville, which has records dating back to 1897, the sea level pressure bottomed out at 976.0 mb, once again well below the 979.7 mb record observed in 1926.
As it approached eastern Kentucky, this system's warm front spread a band of showers northward across the area overnight of the 2nd into the morning of the 3rd. Winds increased across the higher elevations above 2,500 feet and in portions of Middle Tennessee and Central Kentucky toward dawn on Friday. In the system's warm sector, winds were breezy but still relatively tame, generally gusting 25 to 50 mph, strongest on southeastern ridges and near Lake Cumberland. Many locations saw sunshine buoying temperatures to near or above 70 degrees ahead of the system's cold front which approached from the west around midday, but dew points struggled to rise above 60 even in the Lake Cumberland area. Very minimal instability and intense shear proved prohibitive to sustained shower and and thunderstorm organization with the cold front.
While the shallow showers and storms that formed failed to mix down most of the momentum within the storm system's extremely intense wind field, strong cold air advection in the low-levels resulted in an unstable low-level atmosphere behind the cold front. This allowed momentum from the intense winds just a few thousand feet above the ground to mix down and surface leading to a period of strong to damaging wind gusts, most concentrated between 5 PM and 10 PM over eastern Kentucky. Across the ridges and flatter terrain, wind gusts generally peaked between 50 and 70 mph. Winds were weaker in the more sheltered valleys and narrow hollows, peaking at 30 to 50 mph, still sufficient to bring down weaker limbs and trees. During the evening, the NWS Office at the Julian Carroll airport (KJKL) recorded multiple gusts to 58 mph or stronger, with a peak gust of 65 mph. This gust is the strongest measured gust at KJKL since records began in 1981. The strongest gust in the NWS Jackson County Warning area (CWA) recorded on Friday evening was 70 mph at the London Corbin Airport (KLOZ). While these winds were sufficient to cause structural damage, down many trees, cause scattered to widespread power outages, eastern Kentucky was spared from the destructive hurricane force wind gusts that occurred just to the west over portions of Central Kentucky and Bluegrass.
Across the Commonwealth, power outages exceeded a half million customers Friday evening, with tens of thousands of those occurring in eastern Kentucky. Significant power outages occurred in many counties including Menifee, Lee, McCreary, Wayne, Pulaski, Estill, Rockcastle, and Jackson counties. Just north and west of the region, the Lexington metro area was particularly hard hit. Power restoration crews from many nearby states including Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Arkansas joined local utility companies in what turned into a several day power restoration effort. Many instances of loss of siding and/or roofing material were also observed. More significant structural damage reports were received from Estill and Fleming counties. Just north and west of the region, the Lexington metro area experienced stronger winds and with more widespread structural damage.