Drought conditions continued across the region as rainfall remained below seasonal normals. Exceptional drought (D4) or Extreme drought (D3) remained over most of southern Kansas during the month of March 2023.
Every event with a place to put it; 22 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ICT wrote it up.
Drought conditions continued across the region as rainfall remained below seasonal normals. Exceptional drought (D4) or Extreme drought (D3) remained over most of southern Kansas during the month of March 2023.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wichita, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 11:05 PM CST, 55 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1105 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 253 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 * Very High Fire Danger Continues This Afternoon * Above Average Temperatures Today and Wednesday * Strong Storm System Arrives Late Thursday into Friday * Rain/Snow/Freezing Rain All Possible Late Thursday into Friday This evening through Friday night... As of 3:30 PM, long-wave, midlevel troughing remains across the western half of the US. Closer to home, a lee trough was developing across the high Plains with a surface low situated near Tribune. An impressive dryline extends from the surface low to near Dodge City and south from there. Dew points quickly fall into the single digits with temperatures in the 60s, yielding relative humidity values ranging from 8-15 percent. This airmass will enter areas west of Interstates 135/35 in the next 1-2 hours. Fortunately, the fire danger concerns will remain brief with sunset shortly before 7 PM. In addition to the fire danger concern, satellite and observations reveal a plume of dust across southwest KS. There is a chance areas across central KS see reductions in visibility (5-6 miles) due to the blow dust, although overall impacts should remain minor. Transitioning into tonight, the aforementioned surface trough will slide across the forecast area, shifting winds to the northwest/north. Overnight lows will range from near 30 across central KS to near 40 across southeast KS. Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast Wednesday with north to northeasterly low- level flow persisting much of the day. Afternoon highs are forecast to range from the low 60s across southeast KS to the mid-50s across central KS. Big changes begin late Wednesday night into Thursday as a potent midlevel shortwave trough traverses the southwest US. A deep surface low will develop across northeast NM/southeast CO. Increasing isentropic ascent and midlevel height falls should result scattered rain showers by early Thursday afternoon. Thermal profiles are forecast to gradually cool into Thursday evening/Thursday night. This should transition precipitation to a wintry mix and potentially all snow with northward extent. There remains some spread amongst deterministic and ensemble guidance with transition timing Thursday night. That being said, there seems to be a majority that suggest any snow accumulation will remain minor with most areas seeing an inch or two at most. The highest accumulations are likely to be across central KS. Precipitation will begin to depart the area into the day Friday. The combination of rain and snow should result in meaningful liquid precipitation with ensemble mean values exceeding 0.50" southeast of turnpike and near 0.25" for areas northwest of the turnpike. Daytime highs Friday will approach 50 for most locations across the area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 253 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 A gradual warming trend is expected through the weekend as shortwave ridging overspreads the Plains with highs returning to the 60s by Sunday. A weak shortwave trough is forecast to round the ridge late Sunday into Monday shunting a weak surface trough through the area. Monday afternoon highs will range from near 60 across central KS to near 70 along the OK border. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1105 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Quiet condtions are expected through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 37 59 34 46 / 0 0 0 60 Hutchinson 34 57 31 43 / 0 0 0 60 Newton 36 58 32 43 / 0 0 0 60 ElDorado 38 59 34 45 / 0 0 0 60 Winfield-KWLD 39 62 36 49 / 0 0 0 60 Russell 29 56 26 38 / 0 0 10 60 Great Bend 30 56 27 40 / 0 0 0 60 Salina 33 58 30 43 / 0 0 0 60 McPherson 33 57 30 43 / 0 0 0 60 Coffeyville 41 64 40 54 / 0 0 0 80 Chanute 40 63 37 50 / 0 0 0 70 Iola 39 61 36 48 / 0 0 0 70 Parsons-KPPF 41 64 39 51 / 0 0 0 70 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...BMB LONG TERM...BMB AVIATION...CRW
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wichita KS 349 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-012200- Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase- Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper- Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette- 349 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas, South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Very high grassland fire danger will continue this afternoon across southern and southeast Kansas. Outdoor burning is not recommended in these areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday A few storms will be possible Thursday and Thursday night across southeast Kansas. Severe storms are not expected with this activity. A powerful storm system is expected to lift out into the Plains for Thursday through Friday morning. There is a chance that rain will transition to snow Thursday night into Friday morning with some accumulation possible. Confidence in the track of this storm system is low at this time so be sure to check back for updates. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight. && For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at: https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
22 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Extreme drought (D3) worsened to Exceptional Drought (D4) during the early portion of the month, due to continued below normal rainfall.
Extreme drought (D3) continued across the entire county due to continued below normal rainfall.
Extreme drought (D3) continued across the entire county due to continued below normal rainfall.
Extreme Drought (D3) continued across the southwestern half of the county, due to continued below normal rainfall. Severe drought (D2) was found elsewhere.
Extreme drought (D3) continued across the county, with Exceptional drought (D4) over the southern half of the county.
Severe drought (D2) continued over the southwestern portion of the county.
Severe drought (D2) continued for most of the county, except southwestern sections which saw Extreme drought (D3).
Exceptional Drought (D4) continued across the county.
Exceptional Drought (D4) continued across the county.
Exceptional Drought (D4) continued across the county, with Extreme drought (D3) for northern sections of the county.
Exceptional Drought (D4) continued across the county.
Exceptional Drought (D4) continued across the county.
Exceptional Drought (D4) continued across the county.
Extreme drought (D3) continued across the county, Eisenhower National Airport only reported 0.12 inches of precipitation for the month, which was 2.18 inches below normal.
Extreme drought (D3) continued over the southeastern portion of the county, due to below normal rainfall.
Extreme drought (D3) continued across the northern half of the county, with Exceptional Drought (D4) across the southern half of the county.
Extreme drought (D3) continued across the region.
Extreme drought (D3) continued across the region. Chanute Airport only recorded 0.88 inches for the month, which is 1.62 inches below normal.
Extreme drought (D3) continued across the region.
Severe drought (D2) continued for most of the county. The only exception was over northwestern sections of the county, which saw Exceptional drought (D4).
Severe Drought (D2) continued across the county.
Severe drought (D2) continued over the southwestern half of the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1086713, 1086714, 1086715, 1086716, 1086717, 1086718, 1086719, 1086720, 1086721, 1086722, 1086723, 1086724, 1086725, 1086726, 1086727, 1086728, 1086729, 1086730, 1086731, 1086732, 1086733, 1086734.