Hail in Indiana, May 7, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
653 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

The main focus in the short term is the potential for multiple
complexes of showers and thunderstorms through Monday night.
Forecast confidence in the occurrence of precipitation during this
time frame is higher than average, but confidence is average at
best with respect to timing and placement of individual convective
systems.

As an upper level ridge over the Mississippi River Valley flattens
today and the mid level capping inversion erodes, showers and
thunderstorm are expected to be in more abundance today than the
past couple of days. Helping to aid in the storm activity are
perturbations and outflow boundaries associated with two overnight
mesoscale convective systems. One north of the region in Illinois
and Indiana is forecast to approach northern and eastern portions
of the forecast area this morning. The other over western Arkansas
is forecast to largely diminish through early morning as it heads
east. However, the remnants of both of these systems will likely
combine with a moderate degree of instability, aided by daytime
heating and near 70 degree dewpoints, to spark scattered/numerous
thunderstorms throughout the day. Although the overall bulk shear
will be relatively weak, there could be enough for at least some
storm organization. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern
with the stronger storms, and hail will also be a concern with the
stronger updrafts. Generally relied on a blend of the 00Z HRW NSSL,
HRW ARW, and HRRR, which demonstrated the best correlation to the
overnight convective activity.

Even though thunderstorm activity may last well into the evening,
some decrease in storm coverage is expected by late evening and
overnight with the loss of daytime heating. Our attention then
turns to yet another MCS forecast to fire over the Mid Missouri
Valley this evening. This convective complex is forecast by the
aforementioned CAMs to dive southeast toward the forecast area by
daybreak Monday. If these solutions are to be followed verbatim,
most of the storm activity on Monday would occur during the
morning hours, with a relative lull in the activity during the
afternoon as the atmosphere attempts to recharge. However, if the
convective remnants don't make passage in the morning as currently
forecast, then much stronger instability could develop Monday
afternoon. And with an uptick in bulk shear forecast, strong to
severe thunderstorms would be more likely to develop during the
afternoon. At this time, our forecast delays the development of
this additional activity until Monday night as a cold frontal
boundary makes passage from north to south through the region.

By Tuesday, shower and thunderstorm chances should significantly
drop off as long as the frontal boundary is able to make complete
passage. Maintained slightly better chances across the southern
half of the area in closer proximity to the anticipated boundary
positioning. However, it's entirely possible that most of Tuesday
may turn out dry.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

Post fropa, the long term begins with northeasterlies drawing in
some lower humidity, thereby muting rain chances, at least
temporarily. A subsequent mid level ridge moves overtop and then
east of the region by Thursday, and return flow southerlies
recommence. Humidity, and daily rain chances, soon follow, again
peaking during the most unstable heating hours of the afternoon. The
NBM may well be overdone with Wed-Thu pops that do exist, but by
Friday into the weekend, it's picking up on the increasing trend
with the return of the summery-like pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 652 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

MVFR ceilings should prevail through most of the morning before
improving to VFR by late morning and early afternoon. A decaying
line of showers and thunderstorms will push south into southwest
Indiana, southeast Illinois, and northwest Kentucky trough the
morning. Additional scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
forecast to develop during the late morning and afternoon across
the region. Restrictions to MVFR/IFR are possible beneath the
heaviest activity. The shower and storm activity should gradually
diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating, but more
activity may move in from the northwest towards daybreak Monday.
Southwest winds around 10 knots with occasional gusts to 20 knots
today will become southerly at 5 to 10 knots tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...RJP
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...RJP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
356 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-081000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
356 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023 /456 AM EDT Sun May 7 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast today into
tonight. A few of the storms may become severe with damaging
winds and large hail the main concerns. Thunderstorms will also
produce lightning and torrential downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast Monday and Monday
night. Some of the thunderstorms may become severe with damaging
winds and large hail the main severe hazards. Thunderstorms will
also produce lightning and torrential downpours.

Daily storm chances diminish mid week, then increase by late week,
and are highest by Friday and Saturday afternoons. Locally heavy
rain and lightning will be the primary storm hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to monitor the latest conditions should
their assistance be needed today through Monday night.

RJP/DH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
758 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

INZ081-082-087-071330-
Warrick IN-Gibson IN-Pike IN-
758 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Warrick, Gibson and west central Pike Counties through 830 AM CDT/930
AM EDT/...

At 758 AM CDT/858 AM EDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Princeton, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Patoka around 805 AM CDT.
  Princeton around 810 AM CDT.
  Fort Branch around 815 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Oakland City.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between Mile Markers 23 and 41.
 Interstate 64 in Indiana between Mile Markers 33 and 35.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3845 8764 3844 8763 3845 8762 3842 8728
      3816 8737 3829 8779 3840 8776 3841 8775
      3842 8771 3843 8769 3843 8766 3845 8767
TIME...MOT...LOC 1258Z 283DEG 22KT 3836 8768

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

RJP