Drought in Hawaii, November 1 to 30, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Tue Oct 31 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Background flow will remain light through Thursday. These light
winds will allow afternoon sea breezes and nighttime land breezes
to develop, with mostly clear nights and mornings followed by
clouds and spotty showers each afternoon over leeward and interior
sections. Locally breezy trade winds are expected to return this
weekend as a strong high builds far northwest of the islands. A
front approaching the western islands early next week may cause an
increase in shower coverage over portions of the island chain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Weak ridging near the islands will bring light and variable winds
across the western half of the state with light east to southeasterly
winds over the eastern half. The light wind flow will result in
daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes over the next
couple of days, resulting in sunny skies in the morning, cloud
build ups with isolated showers during the afternoons, then
clearing at night.

Trade winds will slowly strengthen Friday as the ridge lifts
further north. By the weekend, strong high pressure will build
far northwest of the state and increase trade winds across the
islands to locally breezy levels. As this high builds, a front
will be pushed southward towards Kauai by late Sunday into Monday
that may bring increased windward-focused rainfall to portions of
the island chain early next week. However, some differences
persist between the GFS and ECMWF solutions as to whether the
front will move onto Kauai or stall before reaching the state.
Trade winds will remain elevated into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light and variable winds will allow overnight land breezes and
daytime sea breezes to form through tomorrow as a ridge remains
in the area. Expect increased mauka cloud cover and possible light
showers across mountain/interior locations as sea breezes form.
Clouds and showers will then decrease in coverage overnight.

No AIRMETS are in effect and none are expected overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
A surface ridge will remain anchored over the western end of the
state through Thursday, keeping light and variable winds over the
western islands, while light to locally moderate east-southeast
trades hold over the eastern end of the state. Ridging will build
back north of the islands Thursday night and Friday, allowing the
trade winds to return. A strengthening surface high to the distant
northwest will allow trades to strengthen to moderate and strong
levels Friday night through Monday. Small Craft Advisories will
likely be needed as early as Friday night for some waters, then
possibly expand to most marine zones Saturday night through early
next week.

Surf along north facing shores will remain below the seasonal
average this week. The current small north-northwest swell will
gradually lower tonight, with a new reinforcement arriving on
Wednesday. A steady train of overlapping moderate-sized north-
northwest swells will then continue to move through the islands
through early next week, with only minor changes in surf heights
from day to day.

The current south swell will keep south shore surf above the seasonal
average through Wednesday, with a gradual decline on Thursday. A
new long-period, south-southwest swell will arrive late Thursday
and linger through early next week, keeping some small surf in
place along south facing shores. East shore surf will remain
small through at least Saturday, due to the lack of upstream trade
winds. East shore surf will gradually rise Sunday into early next
week as the trades return and ramp up.

Higher than predicted water levels are expected to trend down
across the Hawaiian Islands over the next few days. However, water
levels look to remain elevated enough for the western end of the
island chain to result in minor coastal flooding again Wednesday
morning for Niihau, Kauai, and Oahu during the high astronomical
tide. The Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for these
areas through 8 am Wednesday.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Foster
AVIATION...Gibbs
MARINE...Jelsema