A strong surface low deepened across the eastern Gulf of Mexico as high pressure dominated northeast of the region creating very strong onshore flow. Several days of persistent onshore flow increased water levels along the local Atlantic coast and within inland estuaries including the St.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A strong surface low deepened across the eastern Gulf of Mexico as high pressure dominated northeast of the region creating very strong onshore flow. Several days of persistent onshore flow increased water levels along the local Atlantic coast and within inland estuaries including the St. Johns River basin. As the low crossed the state, strong winds, heavy rainfall and storm surge impacted NE Florida and SE Georgia Saturday night 12/16 into Sunday 12/17. Wind gusts increased to 40-50 mph overnight and continued to remain strong into Sunday afternoon with gusts increasing to 45-56 mph as the low departed NE of the region with strong post-frontal pressure rises and drier air enabling strong low-level winds to mix down to the surface.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 17, 6:23 AM EST, 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
623 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 359 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023
Deepening low pressure system off the coast of Tampa will track
northeastward across north-central FL later this morning and into
the coastal waters this afternoon. Tight local gradient has
brought windy conditions across the area with potential wind
gusts of 40-45 mph inland and up to 55 mph along the coast ahead
of the low. Heavy rainfall has already fallen across north-
central FL with amounts of 4-6 inches. Flood Watch remains in
effect area- wide as continuous stratiform rain overspreads the
area. Flooded roads have already been reported in St Johns and
Flagler counties. Despite surface- based CAPE struggling to make
its way northward, low level wind/shear parameters could support a
couple strong to severe storms with the potential for damaging
wind gusts/isolated tornadoes. A narrow corridor of instability
could develop along the coast toward sunrise which could help
support stronger updrafts. Best chance for stronger activity will
be around sunrise and into mid- morning right along the coast. As
the low lifts northeastward, rain will taper off from SW to NE
through the day. The LLJ (850 mb 40-50 kts) wraps around the low
and brings another batch of gusty winds later today. Therefore,
the Wind Advisory has been extended into this evening. Strong
northwesterly flow develops in the wake of the Low ushering in
cooler and drier air. Temperatures drop tonight into the 40s.
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 359 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023
High pressure will begin to build into the area from the northwest and
move to the north of our area by Tuesday night, leading to drier and
cooler weather conditions to settle into the region. Daytime highs on
Monday will be in the low to mid 60s for most of our area, with locations
north of Waycross remaining mostly in the upper 50s. A cold front moving
through on Monday will cause Monday night temperatures to dip into
the 30s. Frost potential will be low due to elevated winds
overnight. Wind chill values are expected to range from the mid
20s to lower 30s, just above Wind Chill Advisory criteria.
Tuesday's daytime highs will peak in the low to mid 50s for northeast
Florida and the low 50s over southeast Georgia. With diminishing
winds in combination with lows in the upper 20s over southeast
Georgia and the Suwannee Valley, inland Frost and Freeze will be
possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Coastal areas will
be in the lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023
The dry conditions will continue through the week and into the weekend as
the high pressure remains over the area. Wednesday night, lows again will
be in the lower 30s over southeast Georgia, with the potential for another
night of Freeze/Frost for our inland locations. Daytime highs will be
begin to rise to near normal and continue through the week. Temperatures
will moderate into the weekend with developing onshore flow.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023
The main axis of heavier rain has lifted north of GNV and SGJ this
morning. Gusty winds and IFR conditions prevail through at least
20Z. Brief periods of LIFR visibilities and ceilings within heavy
rain showers cannot be ruled out for this morning. Best chance of
any thunderstorms will be before 15Z. Lighter showers spread
across the Taf sites later this afternoon and gradually taper of
between 20-00Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 359 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023
Very hazardous marine conditions continue over the coastal waters
through this morning with gale and storm force wind gusts expected
as a deepening low pressure system moves across north-central FL.
The low is expected to track into the coastal waters this afternoon
and lift quickly to the northeast. Winds and seas remain elevated
as high pressure builds into the region from the northwest. Winds
and seas gradually subside Tuesday into Wednesday.
Rip Currents: High surf extended through tonight and High risk of
rip currents will continue through at least Monday night and may
continue into mid-week. Beach erosion will occur, and could be
significant in some areas.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 359 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023
Heavy Rainfall:
Flood Watch remains in effect through mid-morning. About 1 to 4
inches of rainfall have fallen so far tonight. Additional 2 to 3
inches is anticipated to fall across the area as this system moves
through. Flooded roads have already been reported in St Johns and
Flagler counties.
Coastal Flooding:
Coastal flood advisory continues into this afternoon for the
Atlantic coast, ICWW and St Johns river. Gages have been cresting
into Action stage just below minor flood these past high tide
cycles. The surge levels will increase but the highest crest is
anticipated in the afternoon high tide cycle mainly into minor
flood with isolated moderate flood stage.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 61 45 60 33 / 100 10 0 0
SSI 66 47 62 36 / 100 30 0 0
JAX 67 47 63 34 / 80 20 0 0
SGJ 71 49 64 39 / 60 10 0 0
GNV 67 47 63 37 / 70 0 0 0
OCF 69 48 63 38 / 50 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ020-021-023-024-
030-031-033-035-038-122-124-125-132-133-136>138-140-222-225-
232-236-237-240-325-340-425.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ020-021-023-024-
030-031-033-035-038-122-124-125-132-133-136>138-140-222-225-
232-236-237-240-325-340-425.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for FLZ033-
038-124-125-132-133-137-138-225-325.
High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ124-125-
133-138.
High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for FLZ124-125-133-138.
GA...Flood Watch until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149-
151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for GAZ132>136-149-
151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for GAZ154-
166.
High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for GAZ154-166.
High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for GAZ154-166.
AM...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ450-452-454.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for AMZ450-452-
454-470-472-474.
Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ470-472-474.
Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Monday for
AMZ470-472-474.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
601 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0547 AM Rain 2 WNW Alachua 29.79N 82.51W
12/17/2023 M5.40 inch Alachua FL Mesonet
Mesonet station EW6657 Alachua.
&&
KCPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
602 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0545 AM Rain 7 S Ocala Airport 29.07N 82.23W
12/17/2023 M5.20 inch Marion FL Mesonet
Mesonet station DW0617 Clermont.
&&
KCPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
610 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0515 AM Flood 2 SSE Asbury Lake 30.02N 81.81W
12/17/2023 Clay FL Law Enforcement
Severe flooding in the construction area
along Co Rd 218 by Shadowlawn Elementary
school.
&&
KCPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
612 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0511 AM Flood 1 SW Doctors Inlet 30.11N 81.78W
12/17/2023 Clay FL Law Enforcement
Severe flooding along Pinewood Blvd E and
Susan Dr.
&&
KCPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
613 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 AM Rain 2 SSE Summerfield 28.98N 82.02W
12/17/2023 M4.00 inch Marion FL Cocorahs
CoCoRAHS observer reported continuous
moderate rainfall resulting in 4 inches of
rain in past 20 hours.
&&
ACPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
636 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0530 AM Flood 1 S Neptune Beach 30.30N 81.39W
12/17/2023 Duval FL Storm Chaser
Corrects previous flood report from 1 S
Neptune Beach. Street flooding at the
intersection of 1st St and 8th Ave in
Neptune Beach. Storm Chaser estimated about
a foot to a foot and a half of water on the
road. Photo relayed via social media.
&&
KCThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 strong wind, 3 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A metal lamppost was knocked down along Gloucester St in Brunswick. Time was estimated by radar.
A large tree snapped at the base and fell onto a carport causing damage to the carport structure and a car near Screven. Another large tree fell onto a car near Jesup.
Minor flooding was observed. The observer measured 4.47 inches of rainfall in the past 10 hours.
Old Screven Road (dirt road) was washed out to the point where the culvert pipe was showing. This was near Aaron Holland Rd. A creek also overflowed and flooded a backyard near Alberta Rd in Screven.
Standing water was reported along K street and Glynn Ave. Flooding was due to heavy rain and tidal flooding.
Power lines were blown down across Highway 84 in Homerville. The cost of damage was unknown but it was estimated for inclusion of the event in Storm Data.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, December 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1145587, 1145588, 1145472, 1145589, 1145586, 1145473.