A surface low pressure system developed over the south-central Gulf of Mexico and moved east-northeast across the Florida peninsula, preceded by strong south to southwest winds that lead to elevated water levels during high tide resulting in coastal flooding along the western Florida coast consisting mainly of inundated streets and roadways, although a few structures in Pinellas County reported…
Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TBW wrote it up.
A surface low pressure system developed over the south-central Gulf of Mexico and moved east-northeast across the Florida peninsula, preceded by strong south to southwest winds that lead to elevated water levels during high tide resulting in coastal flooding along the western Florida coast consisting mainly of inundated streets and roadways, although a few structures in Pinellas County reported water rising into them. Coastal gauge sites recorded maximum water levels that generally reached 2 to 4 feet above mean higher high water (MHHW) during high tide. 6 sites established new top-10 high water level values for their respective periods of record (East Bay: 3.6 ft - 3rd highest, Clearwater Beach: 3.43 ft - 3rd highest, Old Port Tampa: 3.4 ft - 4th highest, Saint Petersburg: 3.22 ft - 6th highest, Port Manatee: 3.06 ft - 6th highest, and Fort Myers: 2.87 ft - 9th highest). Multiple additional sites reached action to minor flooding stages.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 16, 7:59 PM EST, 4 hours 31 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
759 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023
...New UPDATE, DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...
Large all day rain shield over the FL Peninsula continues over N
and C areas in cool sector of cyclone. Warm front over S FL moving
Nward as well advertised strong low pressure storm system getting
better organized in the E Gulf centered a little more than 100
miles offshore W Central and SW FL this evening as seen in
satellite and radar imagery. The system is beginning to show the
classic mid latitude cyclone coma head with convective burst and
associated dry slot moving into SW FL aiding in destabilization
and surface based instability ahead of developing squall line. 00Z
TBW sounding and radar algorithms showing very strong helicity
values in the high shear and low cape environment. Expect risk of
severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes tonight as the system
moves ashore with a squall line and also additional discrete cells
that can produce winds around 60mph and tornadoes as the main
threats. Will coordinate shortly with SPC on the situation for the
possibility of watches as needed while we monitor the potentially
dangerous situation closely.
Winds turn onshore overnight into Sunday as the strong pressure
gradient continues to produce minor coastal flood concerns around
high tides.
Latest forecasts, grids, and briefing material on track at this
time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Complex forecast with Gulf storm system to move ashore overnight
with widespread MVFR/IFR CIGs and VSBY especially in heavier rain
showers that could likely become +TSRA with brief LIFR and very
strong gusty winds. General gradient winds to remain gusty as well
from the ESE turning S ahead of squall line then NW towards
morning. Wrap around moisture to keep lower cigs and RA in the
area Sunday through at least 18Z.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023
The surface low we have been expecting the past few days is finally
getting more organized as it approaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The latest satellite imagery is showing extensive cloudiness over
the central and eastern gulf waters with building cloud tops
indicating increasing thunderstorm activity near the low center. The
latest surface observations are continuing to report steady rain
moving into the area. The latest radar and HRRR guidance has what
appears to be mostly stratiform rain streaming into the area and
continuing through the afternoon hours with the first thunderstorms
moving onshore after 6 pm and continuing through the early morning
hours on Sunday. The 12Z morning sounding is showing a definite
moistening of the atmosphere from 24 hours ago with a PWAT of 1.50
inches. The CAPE is not very impressive on the morning sounding, but
strong veering of the winds is already apparent with SFC - 3km
helicity values already exceeding 300+. This value is indicative of
the possibility of waterspouts and tornadic activity as cells move
through the area later today. This weather system will continue to
bring a multitude of weather hazards including excessive rainfall up
to 2-4 inches possible with higher amounts in stronger storms, gusty
winds up to 50 mph, hazardous marine conditions, damaging
thunderstorm gusts and even some isolated tornadoes will be
possible.
After this 24 hour weather event, models have come to an agreement
in moving this low pressure northeast of the area over the Carolinas
coastline by late Sunday evening and will continue moving northeast
along the eastern seaboard away from the area. Most of the rainfall
associated with this system will taper off as well by Sunday
evening. However, a tight pressure gradient between the area of low
pressure and high pressure building in from the northwest will
produce breezy conditions in the wake of this system making for
hazardous boating operations through at least Monday evening. Broad
high pressure builds in over the southeast U.S. by Tuesday producing
rain-free conditions for next week as well as bringing a shift in
the winds to the north and then northeast by Wednesday and remaining
around 10 to 15 knots through the end of next week.
Daytime highs will top out in the low to mid 70's through Sunday,
then cooling into the 60's on Monday, 50's and 60's on Tuesday, then
warming back into the 60's and 70's starting Wednesday and
continuing through the end of next week. Overnight lows tonight will
be on the warm and muggy side in the 60's, then dropping into the
40's and 50's for Sunday night, 30's and 40's for Monday and Tuesday
nights and then back into the 40's and 50's starting Wednesday night
through Saturday nights.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023
Dangerous boating conditions will continue through the weekend as a
robust area of low pressure develops in the central Gulf of Mexico
and moves eastward toward and across Florida. This will result in
gusty easterly winds with gusts up to 45 knots possible in our off
shore waters. By late Saturday into early Sunday morning, the low
will transit through the eastern gulf waters. This will result in a
wind shift from the east to the west with wind gusts approaching 45
knots and seas occasionally up to 11 feet. This has warranted the
continuance of a Gale Warning for the off shore waters through
Sunday morning and a Small Craft Advisory for all waters through
Monday morning. We have also issued a High Surf Advisory and High
Risk of Rip Currents for Pinellas County southward starting this
evening and continuing through Monday morning. Conditions will
slowly start to slightly improve through early next week, but winds
will still remain around 15 to 20 knots through at least Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 153 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023
An area of low pressure moves across Florida today and Sunday with
scattered to numerous showers and storms likely. Some of these
storms could be severe with damaging winds. High pressure builds in
from the west in the wake of this low and will produce continued
gusty northwest winds on Monday, then veering to the northeast on
Tuesday. No other fire weather concerns expected during next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 65 70 57 65 / 100 10 10 0
FMY 68 75 60 70 / 90 50 10 0
GIF 64 73 54 66 / 100 40 10 0
SRQ 65 73 59 68 / 100 10 10 0
BKV 61 71 51 65 / 100 30 10 0
SPG 65 69 59 64 / 100 10 10 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for Coastal Charlotte-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal Citrus-
Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal
Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Pinellas.
High Rip Current Risk from 1 AM EST Sunday through Monday
morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal
Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.
High Surf Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for Charlotte Harbor
and Pine Island Sound-Tampa Bay waters.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters from
Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters
from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters
from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters
from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
out 20 to 60 NM.
&&
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...RDavis
CLIMATE/DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR...Anderson
RADAR...Flannery/Oglesby/GiarratanaThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 coastal flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Reports received from pubic of streets and roadways flooded across parts of Longboat Key in the vicinity of Broadway Street.
Reports received from pubic of streets and roadways flooded in Clearwater Beach area, with a few homes experiencing minor inundation within garages in North Beach.
Numerous reports received from pubic of streets and roadways flooded in and around Saint Petersburg, from around the Venetian and Eden Isles areas southward through Saint Petersburg down to around Coquina Key.
Fire Rescue reported multiple road closures due to flooding across parts of Tarpon Springs including US Highway 19 and Martin Luther King Drive.
Broadcast media relayed reports of coastal flooding across Charlotte County along East Marion Avenue and Scott Street as well as immediate surroundings.
Broadcast media relayed reports of multiple road closures due to flooding across downtown Fort Myers, including Park Avenue, Palm Beach Boulevard, and First Street.
Local EM reported numerous streets and roadways flooded across Hillsborough County, including portions of Bayshore Boulevard, South West Shore Boulevard, 22nd Street, and the Courtney Campbell Bridge.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, December 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1149899, 1149895, 1149897, 1149901, 1149892, 1149902, 1149891.