NWS Reno, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 17, 2:03 PM PST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 17, 2:03 PM PST, 1 hour 17 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
203 PM PST Sun Dec 17 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Haze and air stagnation impacts will continue through today. By
early tomorrow, a stormy pattern will bring rain, mixed and icy
precipitation, and high- elevation snow through Wednesday. Sierra
ridges will see strong gusty winds, and leeside valleys will also
see breezes pick up early Monday into early Tuesday. Potential is
increasing for additional systems to arrive after Christmas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Changes in the forecast to highlight this morning: We are seeing
about a 20% chance for freezing rain or sleet to arrive early
tomorrow before the morning commute to areas in Lassen County
(Susanville) and possible even into western Nevada valleys along
US-95 (Fallon). The window of opportunity for freezing rain to
impact the area will be 3AM to 10AM, which could cause slick
roadways for the morning commute. Make plans to get up a bit
earlier, whether to check road conditions to see if you should
delay, or just to give yourself more time to reach your
destination. Roads will become slick with just a bit of rain, so
make sure to keep a safe driving distance as well, no matter where
you travel.
Radar and satellite over the region are beginning to pick up the
shower activity along the California coast and into the Central
Valley this afternoon. Infrared satellite depicts cold cloud tops
moving into NE California, signaling the incoming storm system.
As expected this activity will continue to lift toward the Pacific
Northwest through Tuesday, possibly lingering into early
Wednesday. Another low sits just off the coast, waiting its turn.
The secondary low is anticipated to continue to dig south, and
finally come ashore near the northern Baja Peninsula later this
week.
Winds will begin to pick up overnight, and will increase through
tomorrow, bringing gusts 60-80 mph to Sierra ridges. Western
Nevada valleys could see some 20-30 mph gusts, but limited
downsloping winds with this event. They will become more
intermittent as the showers spillover, eventually tapering
tomorrow night into Tuesday.
As mentioned above, precipitation types may fluctuate and cause
impacts above 7,000 feet as we start our week tomorrow and rise to
near 8,500 feet by early evening. Between these levels, we can
expect variable precipitation types, rain/snow mix as well as
freezing rain may be possible during tomorrow morning's commute,
possibly into late morning for some areas. Below 7,000 feet should
see mostly rain, but cannot rule out an isolated cold pocket
seeing variable precipitation types as well. Above 8,500 feet
should see mostly snow, although southern Mono County could see
snow levels as high as 9,000 feet toward tomorrow evening. As
such, keep an eye on surfaces for ice accretion and take caution
where surfaces become slick.
Snow totals for this first round will be greatest for the Sierra
in Alpine and Mono counties, with a 60-70% chance for up to 6"
above 9,000 feet. For liquid amounts, this translates to about 2"
of snow water equivalent in the Sierra. Western Nevada valleys are
looking for a 60-70% chance for picking up 0.25" of liquid
through Wednesday. Overall, this water will be beneficial to our
water year totals, as of now we are around 40% of our December
average. We really do have some ground to cover, figuratively and
literally.
The secondary low mentioned above seems to have slowed in recent
ensembles, with the clusters bringing the low's center ashore well
south of the Mexico border early Friday. Position and timing will
dictate the outcome of our impacts, but NBM blended guidance
suggests a 23-30% chance for showers in the Sierra Friday and
Saturday. CPC is still highlighting the Sierra for December 25-29
for moderate heavy snow, although recent trends in the cluster
analysis is showing a slight ridge pattern setting up just
before/during Christmas, so this is still lower in confidence.
HRICH
&&
.AVIATION...
Valley inversions will hold for the day today, still creating
slantwise VIS concerns for KRNO/KMEV/KCXP. South-southwest winds
will increase overnight tonight into tomorrow, bringing Sierra
ridge gusts 50-70 kts and valleys breezes 15-25 kts by evening.
This storm will bring LLWS and mountain wave turbulence through
this evening, and mountain obscurations near shower activity
through Wednesday. Winds will begin to taper late tomorrow night.
HRICH
&&
.AVALANCHE...
A warm/wet pair of storms will impact the Sierra starting on
Monday continuing through Wednesday afternoon. Snow levels will
fluctuate between 7,000 to 8,000 feet, and possibly as high as
9,000 feet. Snow character is heavy/dense with ratios 5-10:1.
Ridges will see sustained southwest wind of 35-50 mph with gusts
nearing 100 mph on Monday, per GFS/NAM. For the most part ridge
gusts look to be 60-80 mph.
Guidance shows a likely (60-70%) chances for at least 1" of
liquid on Monday and Tuesday for a majority of the Sierra. There
is also a likely (>70%) chance for at least 1" of liquid on
Wednesday for Sierra locations mostly south of US-50.
Snowfall in the eastern Sierra again looks to be maximized south
of Tahoe in terrain above 8,000 feet. The guidance is still
showing the 25th percentile snowfall 6-18" along the crest with
75th percentile has a big 25-50". So there is still a big boom
bust potential. -McKellar
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&