A strong surface low deepened across the eastern Gulf of Mexico as high pressure dominated northeast of the region creating very strong onshore flow. Several days of persistent onshore flow increased water levels along the local Atlantic coast and within inland estuaries including the St.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A strong surface low deepened across the eastern Gulf of Mexico as high pressure dominated northeast of the region creating very strong onshore flow. Several days of persistent onshore flow increased water levels along the local Atlantic coast and within inland estuaries including the St. Johns River basin. As the low crossed the state, strong winds, heavy rainfall and storm surge impacted NE Florida and SE Georgia Saturday night 12/16 into Sunday 12/17. Wind gusts increased to 40-50 mph overnight and continued to remain strong into Sunday afternoon with gusts increasing to 45-56 mph as the low departed NE of the region with strong post-frontal pressure rises and drier air enabling strong low-level winds to mix down to the surface.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 15, 8:49 PM EST, 3 hours 11 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
849 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Forecast is on track this evening as light showers have lifted
north into SE GA as another batch begin move onshore the NE FL
coast between Flagler Beach and the Jax Beaches with drizzle and
low ceilings drifting from the coast from Fernandina Beach south
and west to the Jax Intl Airport, Cecil Field, and Keystone
Heights where a lull in showers exists in the moist NE onshore
flow. High pressure to the north over the Carolina Piedmont will
continue to slide slowly east towards the Outer Banks as weak
coastal troughs move onshore then lift north and west. This will
serve to turn winds more easterly by dawn to 10-15 mph at the
coast to 5-10 mph inland. Lows will range from the upper 40s over
inland SE GA to the 50s along the SE GA coast and much of inland
NE FL to low 60s at the NE FL coast.
Saturday, high pressure will lift north along the east coast while
developing low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will move
NE towards the central FL peninsula and heavy showers will lift
south to north over the area by the early afternoon over NE FL and
the late afternoon to early evening hours over SE GA. Rainfall
totals through late Saturday evening will be 1-2 inches along and
south of I-10 and a half inch to 1 inch for SE GA with additional
rainfall expected late overnight into Sunday as the low tracks NE
over north central FL with final totals over the are in the 3-5
inch range with amounts up to 6 inches possible. Have held off on
a Flood Watch as of this update given the timing of the heavier
rains falling after midnight into the morning hours of Sunday.
Winds will increase from the east with the approach of the low
Saturday initially 15-20 mph at the coast with gusts to 30 mph
and 10-20 mph inland then elevating near the coast to 20-30 mph
gusting to 35-45 towards sunset. Highs will be near normal in the
mid to upper 60s for inland NE Fl and all of SE GA with low 70s
over the southern St Johns basin and NE FL coast.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 155 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Breezy northeasterly winds will continue through today and tonight
with developing onshore showers gradually lifting northward with
the flow of westerly rainfall drifting and affecting southeast
Georgia during the overnight hours. The influence of high pressure
ridging to the north will recede today with prevailing flow
shifting about to become more out of the southeast as a low
forming over the Gulf moves in towards Florida. Primary concerns
for today and tonight will be strong onshore gradient winds
producing increased risk for beach erosion, coastal flooding, and
strong surf conditions. High temperatures today will be in the mid
to upper 60s for most of the forecast area with max temps reaching
into the lower 70s over north central Florida and along the
northeast Florida coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop
down into the upper 40s and lower 50s for southeast Georgia and
ranging between the mid 50s to the lower 60s for northeast
Florida.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 155 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023
Models are coming into agreement on the low pressure system moving
off the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, bringing multiple hazards
for northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. The most recent model
runs are trending towards the low pressure moving a tad more
southward, lowering our risk for severe thunderstorms. Starting
with marine and coastal hazards, a high rip current risk, a high
surf advisory, and coastal flood advisory are in effect. Dangerous
conditions are expected at the beaches, with surf 6-10 feet
causing significant beach erosion. Minor coastal flooding along
the Atlantic coast, ICWW, and St. Johns river basin is likely,
with tidal flooding of 1-2 feet above Mean Higher High Water
possible.
There is high confidence for locally heavy rainfall this weekend
beginning Saturday afternoon. The Weather Prediction Center
currently has a 'Slight' Risk for excessive rainfall for Saturday
night through Sunday over northeast Florida and southeast Georgia,
widespread 3-5 inches of rain is forecast, with local amounts of
6 inches possible. Isolated areas, especially urban locations and
areas with poor drainage, may see rainfall flooding impacts. With
the flooding threat lingering overnight, interests in NE FL and SE
GA are urged to drive with extra caution, avoid driving through
flooded roads, and have multiple ways to receive warnings.
In addition to the heavy rainfall threat, there is potential for
strong thunderstorms, mainly from Saturday night to Sunday
morning. The risk for isolated severe thunderstorms is limited to
north central Florida, and the main threat would be damaging wind
gusts. By Sunday night, the low pressure will likely be off our
northeast coast, and lingering showers will hang around overnight
near the coast.
Lastly, it will be a breezy weekend outside of thunderstorm
activity, with sustained westerly winds of 25-35 mph and gusts of
40-50 mph Saturday through Sunday. A Wind Advisory will likely be
necessary for Saturday night through Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 155 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023
Cool and dry weather forecast next week following the active
weekend. Temperatures will be below normal, with highs in the 50s
to 60s each day. Northerly winds will bring cold air into the
area, lowering low temperatures into the lower to mid 30s in
southeast Georgia and parts of northeast Florida Monday night, a
light freeze and patchy frost formation is possible as winds
remain slightly elevated. A cold front will pass through from the
north Monday night into Tuesday, leaving high temps Tuesday well
below average, with some spots in interior SE GA staying just
below 50 degrees. Tuesday night, lows will fall into the upper 20s
to lower 30s across SE GA and the Suwannee valley, leaving decent
potential for a freeze and widespread frost with high pressure
dominating. Temperatures will start to warm up towards the end of
the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023
The 00Z TAF period will begin with prevailing MVFR and intermittent
IFR ceilings at JAX/CRG/VQQ through 02Z-03Z as ceilings lower in
the moist onshore flow between breaks in onshore moving light rain
showers. Ceilings should prevail scattered around 2.0 to 2.5 kft
under increasing mid and high level clouds as low pressure slowly
begins to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and winds will trend to
around 10 knots overnight at the coast and 5-8 knots at the inland
sites. Some patchy fog could develop at JAX and VQQ prior to
sunrise, but winds should prevent dense fog from forming. Saturday,
a lull in showers during the morning will fill in from south to
north during the afternoon hours with heavier showers affecting
GNV along with MVFR ceilings around 1.5 kft by 18-19Z and then
spread those heavier showers and broken MVFR ceilings northward to
the duval county TAF sites by 21Z-22Z and SSI by 23-00Z. Winds
will increase after 15Z to 10-15 knots with gusts to 15-20 knots
across the terminals and higher at SGJ/CRG/SSI to 15-20 knots with
gusts to around 25 knots by 21-00Z window as the low further
strengthens and approaches the region from the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 155 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023
Small craft advisory conditions will continue over the waters
today with strong high pressure situated to the north. Coastal
troughing will bring waves of showers through today and into
tonight. An area of low pressure will develop in the southern Gulf
of Mexico today and trek northeastward towards Florida on
Saturday. Gale conditions return Saturday into Sunday as the low
moves across Florida and into the coastal waters. The low is
expected to track north northeast of the region Sunday into Monday
as high pressure builds to the northwest.
Rip Currents & Coastal Hazards: High Risk of rip currents through
the weekend for all local beaches. A high surf advisory remains
in effect due to breakers in the 7-9 ft range along the NE FL
coast and 5-7 ft along the SE GA coast. Beach erosion will occur,
and could be significant in some areas.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 417 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2023
Coastal Flooding:
Coastal flood advisory was expanded to include the St. Johns river
basin with gages cresting in Action stage. The 1-2 ft tidal
departure range looks to hold this morning, but with a gradual
increase in peak values along the coast and certainly within the
St. Johns River basin as tides become trapped. Some of the
probabilistic ETSS guidance continues to indicate Moderate tidal
flooding potential for portions of the coast and the St. Johns
basin with the Sat night and Sun morning high tides. At this time
it would be prudent for those in tidal flood prone areas to
prepare for at least minor flooding impacts this weekend and
consider early mitigation for moderate tidal flood impacts.
Heavy Rainfall Potential:
Heavy rainfall is expected to begin Saturday afternoon from south
to north across our area and continue into Sunday. Widespread 2-4
inches of storm total rainfall is expected with locally 6 inches
possible. Therefore, there is potential for localized flooding in
low lying and urban locations, especially locations where ongoing
coastal flooding prevents drainage of water.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 48 64 57 62 / 0 50 100 80
SSI 56 67 59 67 / 30 60 100 90
JAX 55 69 60 68 / 40 70 100 80
SGJ 61 71 61 71 / 20 80 100 70
GNV 57 69 60 67 / 10 90 100 70
OCF 59 70 61 69 / 10 90 100 60
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for FLZ033-038-124-
125-132-133-137-138-225-325.
High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ124-125-
133-138.
High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for FLZ124-125-133-138.
GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for GAZ154-166.
High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for GAZ154-166.
High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for GAZ154-166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for AMZ450-452-454-
470-472-474.
Gale Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ450-
452-454-470-472-474.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
23 flood, 9 heavy rain, 3 strong wind, 2 coastal flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A mesonet station about 5 miles SW of the Ocala Airport measured daily storm total rainfall of 6.54 inches as of 5:45 am.
A mesonet site about 6 miles WNW of the University of Florida measured daily storm total rainfall of 5.51 inches since midnight.
A mesonet site about 2 miles WNW of Alachua measured 5.40 inches of storm total rainfall since midnight.
A mesonet site about 7 miles south of the Ocala Airport measured 5.20 inches of storm total rainfall since midnight.
An observer measured storm total rainfall of 4 inches in 24 hours about 2 miles SSE of Summerfield.
One day 24 hr rainfall total was 5.38 inches in Flagler Beach.
Storm total rainfall ranged from 3.5 to 6.25 inches across Flagler county from 12/16 through 12/17. Some of the highest values were 6.25 inches measured in the F section of Palm Coast, 5.47 inches in Flagler Beach, 4.98 inches in Plantation Bay, and 4.45 inches at the Flagler County EOC in Bunnell.
Storm total rainfall in 24 hours was 5.42 inches in Nocatee.
A large tree was blown down onto a car and part of the house in Mandarin. HAM estimates minor damage to the house but the car may be totaled.
Minor street flooding was reported along San Marco Ave at the intersection with Pine St in St. Augustine.
Palm Coast Fire Department reported over 1 foot of water over Barrington Drive in Palm Coast.
State Road 207 near Hastings was flooded and impassable due to about 4 inches of flood water across the road.
A semitruck jackknifed along I-95 near the Lem Turner exit due to wet roads. The truck partially blocked traffic.
Water covered State Road 100 just west of Bunnell, but the road remained passable.
Severe flooding was reported along Pinewood Blvd and East Susan Drive.
Severe flooding was reported in the construction area along County Road 218 near Shadowlawn Elementary School.
Street flooding with water about 1 foot to 1.5 ft deep was reported at the intersection of of 1st Street and 8th Avenue in Neptune Beach.
A large tree was uprooted and blown down on a home causing significant roof damage in the Moncrief area. The tree limbs went through the house and into one of the bedrooms. The cost of damage was unknown but estimated for inclusion in Storm Data.
Significant street flooding was reported along Lasalle Street and San Marco Blvd. Cars struggled to navigate through flood waters.
Minor tidal flooding was reported over the road on South Flagler Avenue and South 23rd Street.
A car slid off of I-10 into a water filled ditch near the HWY 301 exit.
Portions of Cedar Road near the 4300 block were under water and impassable.
A car slid off of I-95 into a water filled ditch near the Airport Rd exit. Another car was trapped on a flooded road along Duval Rd.
Street flooding along Racetrack Rd caused a car to slide and flip into a nearby water-filled ditch.
The road collapsed into the culvert drainage at the intersection of Pine Avenue and Hickory Drive.
Minor street flooding occurred along Columbo Street in San Marco.
Edgewood Avenue had to be closed from West Beaver Street to Broadway Avenue due to road flooding.
Minor flooding impacted US Highway 90 through Macclenny.
Significant street flooding from the St. Johns River was reported along Chenango Blvd.
A creek overflowed it's banks and flooded a nearby yard and basement.
Mutiple roads were flooded across western Nassau County. Ford Rd washed out causing a culvert to fail. Hamp Hicks Rd was closed due to flooding at 2:30 p.m. A section of Bismark Rd was closed. Canal Road was under water but passable. Zidelle Rd, at 4:30 pm, was impassable by cars.
Strong gradient winds with gusts of 45-55 mph were reported across NE FL in the afternoon trailing a departing surface low. Multiple trees and power lines were blown down across the county. The cost of damage was unknown and estimated for Storm Data.
Street flooding in the area caused road closure of US Highway 17 to Interstate 95, near Mile Marker 380.
Tidal flooding produced low end flooding in Flagler Beach along South Flagler Avenue and South 23rd Street. There was no water intrusion into homes.
Harrison Street washed-out and collapsed. According to the Public Works Dept., a cross drain under the road became clogged with debris from stormwater runoff. The debris got stuck in the drain and stormwater levels started rising over Harrison St. The water eroded part of the road and it washed away. People living in a neighborhood along Alexa Lane were trapped since Harrison St is the only road in and out.
Flooding was reported along Colee Cove Road due to heavy rain and tidal flooding from the St. Johns River.
Florida Highway Patrol relayed the ramp from US Highway 17 onto Interstate 95 was closed due to flooding in the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, December 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1145455, 1145457, 1145459, 1145462, 1145464, 1145466, 1145467, 1145465, 1145583, 1145584, 1145477, 1145479, 1145582, 1145520, 1145506, 1145507, 1145513, 1145471, 1145514, 1145478, 1145580, 1145508, 1145579, 1145585, 1145509, 1145515, 1145518, 1145510, 1145516, 1145511, 1145512, 1145470, 1145517, 1145521, 1145581, 1145635, 1145519.