NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 5, 10:48 AM MST, 29 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 5, 10:48 AM MST, 29 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1048 AM MST Sun Mar 5 2023
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 435 AM MST Sun Mar 5 2023
Key messages:
1) A windy to very windy day across the forecast area.
2) RED FLAG conditions near certain over the plains today.
Currently...
Skies were mostly clear across the region at 2AM, but temperatures
showed some dramatic differences over the area, especially the
plains. In a nutshell, where the wind is blowing over the plains, it
is quite warm (temps in the 40s to around 50F), where where the
winds was NOT blowing, it was cool, with temps in teh 20s to around
30F. This difference was so well defined, it was being distinguished
in the 11.2 UM IR imagery. Over the mtns and valleys, temps showed
much less variability, as readings were in the 30s valleys and 10s
and 20s mtns.
Obs across the fcst area showed the winds were already blowing, and
many areas were gusting in the 30s to 50s mph range, with the
strongest flow being noted over the southern I-25 corridor region,
although winds were rather strong over the eastern plains was KLAA
was over 40 mph at 2 AM. With the strong winds over the southern I-
25 corridor, the RH values were already quite low, and Walsenburg
was already reporting RED FLAG conditions during this early morning
hour.
Today...
As has been advertised for several days, it is going to be a windy
day over the entire region. All areas will see wind, although the
far eastern plains will the least amount of wind. The strongest
winds on the plains will be over the southern I-25 corridor region,
and gusts over 60 are likely. Nearly all of the mtns and valleys
will also see strong winds today. Red Flag conditons are near
certain over all of the plains, with the most extreme values over
the southern I-25 corridor region.
Besides the wind, it will be a mild day with all of the
compressional warming today, and temps will range in the 50s to m60s
along the mtns/plains interface wile out east temps will be around
70F. The SLV will see readings in the M/U40s while the mtns will be
in the 20s and 30s. Some light wind driven snow will occur across
the central mtns, the the best chance the farther north you go.
Tonight...
A cold front will push down the plains, and this will kill off the
strong westerlies over most of the plains by later this evening,
Winds will keep up in the mtns and southern I-25 corridor region,
but will decrease over this region as the cool air slowly pushes
westward during the early morning hours. Dry conditions are near
certain over nearly all of the fcst area, with the exception
continuing to be over the central mtns, especially those areas north
of Cottonwood Pass. \/Hodanish
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 435 AM MST Sun Mar 5 2023
Key Messages:
1) Moderate to strong westerly flow continues through mid week bringing
cool surges across the southeast Plains and continued precipitation
chances to the ContDvd.
2) Potential for more widespread precipitation later in the work week?
Monday-Tuesday...Strong westerly flow aloft across the Rockies moderates
Sunday night and early Monday as an embedded short wave continues to
translate across the Northern High Plains. West southwest flow aloft then
progged to increase again through the day Monday and Monday night, as
another embedded short wave translates across the Northern Rockies and
out across the High Plains on Tuesday. The first passing wave sends a
weak front across the eastern plains Monday morning, which looks to
stall along the southern tier of Colorado and slowly lift north, possibly
as far north as the Highway 50 Corridor Monday afternoon, before a second
surge of cool air pushes south and west across all of the southeast plains
Monday night and Tuesday morning.
The first surge across the Plains on Monday looks to cool temperatures back
to around seasonal levels with generally weak low level upslope. However,
higher res model data continues to suggest the front pushing north through
the day, leading to the potential for breezy westerly winds and critical
fire weather conditions to develop across portions of the southern I-25
Corridor later in the afternoon. With models usually too aggressive with
lifting the shallow cool airmass, will not issue any fire weather highlights
at this time. Latest model data does indicate stratus likely filling in
across the Plains Monday night behind the second surge of cool air. With
low level east to southeast upslope developing behind this surge, model
data does indicate the potential for light drizzle/freezing drizzle across
portions of the plains, especially in Pikes Peak region, late Monday night
into Tuesday morning. With expected clouds and low level upslope flow,
lowered NBM temperatures across the plains on Tuesday, though may still
be too warm if stratus persists throughout the day.
Further west, continued breezy to windy conditions over the higher terrain
and chances of snow across the ContDvd, generally across the Northern and
Central Mtns, with temperatures staying at or above seasonal levels.
Wednesday-Friday...There remains a lower confidence in the forecast from
the middle to the end of the work, as models continue to differ on the
strength and location of a large upper trough developing across West
Coast on Wednesday, and then translating across the region Thursday and
Friday. The latest iteration of the EC model suite remains the most
progressive and furthest north with said system, which would keep the
region mainly dry, warm and windy. The GFS suite is more progressive
than yesterday's runs, though still cuts off energy across the Rockies,
which leads to cooler temperatures and better chances of precipitation
across south central and southeast Colorado Wednesday and Thursday.
The Canadian suite of products are closer to EC, however is deeper
with the trough and sends a stronger cold front across the region
on Thursday. With that said, have stayed with NBM data through this
period, which brings the best chances of precipitation to region
Wednesday night and Thursday, though keeps temperatures at to
slightly above seasonal levels.
Saturday-Sunday...Moderate to strong westerly flow looks to develop
and persist across region once again through into next weekend,
leading to temperatures at to above seasonal levels, and continued
chances of precipitation across the ContDvd.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1047 AM MST Sun Mar 5 2023
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS,
KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Winds will be
synoptically influenced at all terminals. They are currently very
strong and gusty out of the SW, especially at KALS and KPUB where
gusts could occasionally reach 50 kts, which could produce
occasional BLDU on station at either of these terminals. If this
does occur, it could temporarily bring down VIS to 2SM. These winds
will begin to weaken after approximately 00Z at KALS and 23Z at
KPUB, at which time any BLDU should cease. Winds will begin to shift
more to the SSW at KALS and then back to the SW again, becoming
gusty after 15Z and through the forecast period. At KCOS and KPUB,
they will come around to the NNE and NE, and eventually SE and SSE
respectively, towards the end of the forecast period.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for COZ060-061-
069>073-078>080-086.
High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Monday for COZ074-075-087-088.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for COZ226>237.
&&
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...STEWARD