Rip Current in Alabama, March 5, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1145 AM CST Sun Mar 5 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Mar 5 2023

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the period,
with the exception of patchy fog developing along the coast after
midnight that will spread inland to near US Highway 84 through
daybreak Monday. This fog could result in localized IFR and MVFR
visibilities. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 502 AM CST Sun Mar 5 2023/

.New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 502 AM CST Sun Mar 5 2023

A mainly zonal pattern aloft will prevail across our region
through Monday. Surface high pressure will also extend across much
of the eastern part of the country today before gradually shifting
east and becoming oriented over the Eastern Seaboard and Western
Atlantic tonight into Monday. Light northeasterly surface flow
over our area this morning should transition easterly over inland
areas and southeasterly to southerly near the coast by this
afternoon. A very dry airmass with precipitable water values
averaging between 0.4 and 0.6 inches will remain in place over the
area today, so we can expect a pleasant day with sunny and dry
conditions. Highs today should warm into the lower 80s over inland
areas and in the mid to upper 70s along the immediate coast.
These values will once again be near record levels (Records for
March 5 include 82 at MOB last set in 1910 and 80 at PNS last set
in 1974).

Low level moisture should slowly increase over the area tonight,
especially near the coast where dewpoints may rise back into the
mid to upper 50s late. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and the
shallow moist layer near the surface will support patchy fog
development late tonight over the southern half of the CWA. Lows
tonight should range from around 50 to the lower 50s over inland
communities and in the upper 50s to lower 60s closer to the coast.

The southerly to southwesterly low level flow pattern should
continue to transport moisture northeastward into much of our area
through the day Monday. Weak ascent in the low level warm
advection regime will be supportive of the development of isolated
rain showers over southern portions of the forecast area going
into Monday afternoon, which is supported in CAM and short range
model guidance. We will have low POPs around 20% in the forecast
over our southern counties Monday afternoon. Otherwise, expect
another very warm day with highs again close to record levels in
the lower to mid 80s inland and upper 70s to near 80 degrees along
the coast. Residual 3 ft/7-8 s southerly swell sets will support
a HIGH rip current risk through this afternoon or evening before
the risk gradually comes down to MODERATE by Monday morning and
probably LOW Monday afternoon or evening as swell decreases. /21

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 502 AM CST Sun Mar 5 2023

Isolated showers and storms are possible inland through midweek.
Rain and storm chances could increase by late week due to a
potential storm system; however, a great deal of model uncertainty
remains.

Upper level ridging will dominate the first part of the long term
forecast, but a series of upper shortwaves will begin to progress
over the Southeastern states by Wednesday. Then, by late week,
guidance indicates that this upper ridge will be pushed eastward
in response to a developing trough to the west. However, there is
quite a bit of disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF solutions at
this point with regards to timing and evolution of this feature.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure will likely persist over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico until a cold front makes its way south over
the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Not much moisture seems to be
associated with this front, as model PWATs range between 1.2-1.4
inches or so. Although this, along with the aforementioned upper
shortwaves moving overhead, could lead to some shower activity for
inland communities both Tuesday and Wednesday. Instability looks
minimal during this time, but enough to keep the potential for a
few "run-of-the-mill" storms in the forecast. Severe weather is
not expected.

The main area of focus for the extended period is from late week
into the early part of the weekend. Although there remains
uncertainty in timing and evolution for the upper levels, the GFS
and ECMWF do show a surface low pressure system developing over
the Plains and generally moving northeast up into the Great Lakes
and/or Ohio Valley regions. This could bring a trailing cold front
through the Southeast from Friday into Saturday, leading to a
greater potential for showers and storms for the local area. At
this time, due to model uncertainty, stuck close with the Blended
solution that suggests isolated to scattered showers and storms
from Friday through early Saturday. This system will be monitored
with subsequent model runs for its evolution and better model
agreement.

Anticipating high temperatures through midweek to generally range
in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with perhaps some spots warming
into the the mid 80s. Temperatures may decrease by late week due
to the aforementioned system. Forecast highs are in the upper 70s
on Friday, then drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s on Saturday.
Lows are forecast to follow a similar trend, generally remaining
in the 60s through Thursday night, then dipping into the 50s by
Friday night. /26

MARINE...
Issued at 502 AM CST Sun Mar 5 2023

No significant marine impacts are expected the next several days.
A light northeasterly flow pattern over the marine area early
this morning will gradually transition east to southeast during
the day today as weak high pressure shifts east of the region. A
generally light onshore flow pattern is then expected to prevail
through much of the week. Seas elevated between 3-4 ft offshore
early this morning should subside to around 2 ft tonight. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      56  80  67  83  64  82  65  80 /   0  20   0  10   0  10   0  10
Pensacola   60  77  68  81  66  79  66  76 /   0  20   0   0   0  10   0   0
Destin      63  77  68  79  67  79  66  76 /   0  20   0   0   0  10   0  10
Evergreen   50  83  64  84  62  82  61  80 /   0  10   0  20   0  20  10  10
Waynesboro  50  82  65  83  63  80  63  83 /   0  10   0  20   0  20  10  10
Camden      50  82  65  81  60  79  60  78 /   0   0   0  20   0  20  10  20
Crestview   52  83  64  86  62  84  61  81 /   0  20   0  10   0  10   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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