Heavy rain brought flooding to the rivers of Arkansas in early March. A few rivers had continued flooding from the prior month.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the rivers of Arkansas in early March. A few rivers had continued flooding from the prior month.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 11:18 PM CST, 42 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1118 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 202 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 ...Regional severe weather outbreak and flooding expected Thursday and Thursday night... CONUS-wide zonal to slightly S/Wrly upper-lvl flow wl begin to become more unsettled in the next few days as a new strong storm system begins to dig into the Wrn US Coast from PAC-N/W. Sat-WV imgry depicted the leading edge of a strong H500 jet asctd w/ this system approaching the CA Coast. Over the next 24 hours, upper flow is progged to quickly amplify over the S/Wrn US w/ the aforementioned system, and quickly develop into a compact, but potent shortwave trof, becoming more negatively tilted as it traverses the Four Corners vcty and begins to approach the FA. Thru the remainder of today and tonight, settled wx looks to persist w/ incr Srly flow noted over much of the FA. As sfc low pressure to the N/W over the Cntrl Plains passes by, the asctd fetch of Srly flow should begin to draw more Gulf moisture poleward into Srn and Cntrl AR, w/ sfc Td's in excess of 60F reaching the AR/LA border region by Wed morning. Wed, the first round of potential and conditional severe weather is expected to begin. Incr sfc moisture invof modest Srly flow should position a fetch of sufficient low-lvl moisture over much of the ARKLATEX region. Dewpts of 60F should extend as far Nwrd as Cntrl to Nrn Cntrl AR, w/ a gradient of asctd moisture/buoyancy noted along what wl become a stalled sfc bndry, draped from S/W to N/E, extending from near DFW to De Queen/Mena to far N/Ern AR. The exact location of where the bndry is wl lkly differ, and a more Nrn extent wl further incr the covg of potential severe wx Wed afternoon, and vice versa if the bndry surges further S/wrd, inhibiting the covg of potential afternoon buoyancy. The aforementioned strong upper trof wl still be somewhat displaced to the west, and wl play a greater role in severe weather potential on Thurs. Primary forcing looks to be due in part to low-lvl convergence invof the sfc bndry. Additionally, upper-lvl progs depict a strong jet streak maneuvering thru the mean flow, and wl lkly aid in enhancing local bulk shear and drive further potential synoptic ascent. 12Z HREF mean guidance depicts ample buoyancy in place over much of the Srn half of AR, w/ mean SBCAPE of 1000 J/kg or more. In the absence of upper-lvl flow curvature, pt fcst soundings depict mostly unidirectional vertical wind profiles, but sufficient bulk shear values for sustaining rotating updrafts. CAM guidance is still somewhat fresh at this point in time, however the handful of synoptic runs that are w/in range are supportive of a scattered to cluster storm mode over much of the current SLGT risk area. Clustered storms w/ intermittent supercells wl lkly support an isolated to scattered severe wx threat over portions of Cntrl, Srn, Ern AR, w/ large hail, damaging winds the primary severe hazards. A lack of a more cyclonic local vertical wind profile should keep the tornado threat minimal, but a few tornadoes may still be possible thru the afternoon and evening hours. In addition to the Wed severe wx threat, rich Gulf moisture and the potential for training storms...particularly clustered supercells...will drive a heavy rain threat for Cntrl and Ern AR where storms are currently expected to track through. Locally heavy rainfall can be expected w/ these storms Wed night, w/ additional heavy rainfall expected on Thursday w/ the approaching potent storm system. Back to back days of potentially heavy rainfall should only further exacerbate the risk for flooding issues heading into mid- week. Guidance remains in very good agreement with the overall synoptic evolution thru Thurs while mesoscale details remain less clear. The primary culprit for this uncertainty is the positioning of the aforementioned warm front, which may evolve into a composite frontal configuration with the primary front draped over Srn MO and a secondary boundary across central AR as depicted in sfc theta-e fields. This positioning will be critical as the most volatile overlap of thermodynamic/kinematic parameters will exist along/S of the secondary boundary. Further complicating this is the potential for early day precip and terrain to alter the northward extent of the richest BL air and this bears out in lingering model variability regarding sfc fields. By Thursday evening, the upper low will be moving eastward across the south-central Plains, and beginning to take on a more negative tilt before ejecting northeastward. Meanwhile, the surface low will deepen ~10mb in ~12hrs as it moves along the same track, from the south-central Plains towards the Ohio river valley region. The cold front with this system is forecast to be exiting the eastern border of AR by Fri morning, with the low center tracking east-northeast across the AR/MO border toward the Ohio river valley region. As the system continues to make its way across the forecast area during the overnight period btwn Thurs-Fri, the environment will continue to support the development/sustainment of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. Forecast mid-level lapse rates 6.5-7.5 C, with CAPE values 1000- 1700+ J/kg and bulk shear ~70 knots indicate the environment will continue to support strong updrafts with organized supercells. Forecast soundings indicate the environment supports tornado development, depicting curved hodographs with SFC-1km SRH 400+ m2/s2, SFC-3km SRH ~450 m2/s2 (greater than 300 m2/s2 are usually found in environments that produce violent tornadoes), and LCLs less than 1000m with substantial low-level moisture (PWATs ~1.5 in) reducing the likelihood of updrafts getting cut off by cold outflows. Additionally, BRN values between 10-15 indicate ideal balance between CAPE and shear for supercells and possible tornado development. SPC has highlighted the southern two-thirds of the CWA under an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms, with a marginal- slight risk over northern portions of the CWA. Forecast rainfall during the Thurs night-early Fri period ranges from 1-2+ inches, with the highest amounts over northern portions of the state. This brings the rainfall total for the entire event to between 2-4+ inches, with potentially higher amounts where the strongest storms occur, especially with training storms. Given the already saturated soils and elevated river stages, the risk for flash flooding is increased through Friday. WPC has highlighted much of the central and northern portions of the forecast area for a moderate risk of excessive rainfall, and at risk for exceeding flash flood guidance. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 202 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 Surface wind direction will shift out of the northwest during the daytime period Friday, with forecast sustained wind speeds 20-25 mph (possibly higher) , with gusts approaching 40 mph. Dewpoint temps will drop to the 30s-40s by Friday afternoon, with temperatures in the 40s-50s. By Friday night, temperatures will drop to the lower to upper 30s across much of the CWA. Drier conditions will follow this system, as a surface high shifts eastward across the region through early next week. By Saturday afternoon, high temperatures will meet or exceed seasonal averages (mid 50s-mid 60s), with higher than average temps forecast through the remainder of the period (up to mid 60s-mid 70s by Tues afternoon). Low temps will warm, from the 30s Fri night to the 50s Mon night. Southerly flow will return by the weekend. Long term models indicate our next chance for rainfall returning btwn next Mon-Tues, when warm, moist air returns from the south and another storm system develops and tracks across the central Plains. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 VFR conditions are expected through the overnight hours. CIGs will begin to lower during the morning hours with MVFR/IFR conditions possible. This will be ahead of the next storm system to impact the state Wednesday afternoon through about midnight Thursday. SHRA have been written into TAFs for southern and central terminals with VCTS possible. While TS is likely tomorrow across the state, confidence is low on proximity to terminals. Winds will be out of the south and southwest through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 54 72 54 66 / 0 40 60 90 Camden AR 60 78 63 75 / 0 70 70 90 Harrison AR 51 70 47 59 / 0 20 20 90 Hot Springs AR 56 74 59 71 / 0 80 70 100 Little Rock AR 58 75 61 73 / 0 70 80 100 Monticello AR 62 79 66 77 / 0 60 80 90 Mount Ida AR 56 73 58 71 / 0 70 60 100 Mountain Home AR 50 72 48 59 / 0 30 30 90 Newport AR 53 71 56 67 / 0 40 70 90 Pine Bluff AR 60 77 63 75 / 0 70 80 90 Russellville AR 52 74 56 68 / 0 60 50 100 Searcy AR 51 73 56 69 / 0 60 70 90 Stuttgart AR 58 74 62 71 / 0 70 80 100 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning for ARZ007-008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-054>057-112-113- 121>123-130-137-138-140-141-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241- 313-340-341. && SHORT TERM...72 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...233
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Little Rock AR 455 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069- 103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230- 237-238-240-241-313-340-341-011100- Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence- Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry- Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark- Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln- Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest- Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations- Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County- Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County- Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County- Polk County Lower Elevations- Central and Eastern Montgomery County- Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations- Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations- Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations- Van Buren County Higher Elevations- Southern and Eastern Logan County- Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest- Northern Polk County Higher Elevations- Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations- Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations- Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations- Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations- 455 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Hazardous weather is not anticipated through tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday By Wednesday, isolated to scattered severe storms may develop over roughly the southern half of Arkansas. Damaging winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes will all be possible. Localized flooding is also anticipated through Wednesday night. A much more substantial severe threat is expected Thursday and Thursday night when a regional outbreak of severe weather appears likely, including the potential for several strong tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and large hail. The threat for flash flooding and river flooding will also increase markedly by Thursday as several inches of rain will fall over already saturated grounds. .Spotter Information Statement... Spotter activation will be needed Wednesday through Friday morning. Spotters are strongly encouraged to monitor subsequent forecasts and ensure they are able to report critical information to the NWS as this event unfolds. && Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk. 69
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
18 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooding continued into early March at the Cache River at Patterson in early March.
Flooding continued on the White River at Augusta in early March and it continued through the end of the month.
Flooding continued on the White River at Des Arc in early March and it continued through the end of the month.
Flooding continued on the White River at Clarendon in early March and it continued through the end of the month.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Ouachita River at Thatcher Lock and Dam in early March.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Spring River at Hardy in early March.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Cache River at Patterson in early March that continued through the end of the month.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Petit Jean River at Danville in early March.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Fourche LaFave River at Houston in early March.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Fourche LaFave River at Gravelly in early March.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Black River at Black Rock in early March which continued through the end of the month.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Spring River at Imboden in early March.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the White River at Batesville in early March.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Little Red River at Judsonia in early March.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Saline River at Benton in early March.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Ouachita River at Camden in early March.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Black River at Pocahontas in early March.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the White River at Georgetown in early March and it continued through the end of the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1090078, 1090089, 1090093, 1090096, 1090059, 1090074, 1090082, 1090050, 1090044, 1090040, 1090087, 1090076, 1090088, 1090070, 1090066, 1090062, 1090086, 1090091.