Severe (D2) drought conditions worsened to Extreme (D3) drought conditions across east-central Arkansas, along and south of Interstate 40, during December as below-normal rainfall and warmer-than-normal temperatures persisted. Lake and river levels continued to be at low levels as a result of the drought.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Severe (D2) drought conditions worsened to Extreme (D3) drought conditions across east-central Arkansas, along and south of Interstate 40, during December as below-normal rainfall and warmer-than-normal temperatures persisted. Lake and river levels continued to be at low levels as a result of the drought. Low levels on the Mississippi River were impacting barge and river traffic along with hydropower production at Osceola, Arkansas. Pastures were negatively impacted resulting in supplemental feeding and watering of livestock.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 30, 11:36 PM CST, 24 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1136 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 852 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 01Z surface analysis places a 1002 mb surface low over central Oklahoma. A warm front extends east-southeast into east Texas and into Louisiana with an occluding cold front located in the Texas Hill Country. Meanwhile, an inverted surface trough is located over southern Arkansas and east Arkansas, resulting in rain showers across most of the Mid-South. Temperatures as of 8 PM CST range from the middle 40s to the middle 50s. Short-term model trends indicate the aforementioned surface low will move northeast tonight into west central Missouri. Additional rain showers are expected to develop and move across the area overnight and gradually tapering off by late Friday morning. The potential for elevated winds remains somewhat high while the potential for sustained winds reaching Wind Advisory criteria is low at best. 00Z KLZK upper air sounding showed a rather stout inversion between 950-925 mb with boundary layer winds approaching 30 kts. This strong inversion also showing up in short-term model soundings may ultimately prevent stronger winds mixing down to the surface to meet the 25 mph sustained criteria. Operational model and NBM MOS guidance continues to indicate sub-advisory surface winds into early Friday. Some minor adjustments will be made to the forecast for the remainder of the night. An early cancellation of the Wind Advisory may be considered in the next few hours unless trends begin to suggest otherwise. CJC && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 125 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase tonight ahead of a deep low pressure system. Sustained winds 20-25 mph with wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible across most of the area overnight. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 10PM tonight through 7AM tomorrow. A secondary cold front will move through Saturday, increasing rain chances again and cooling temperatures down a bit. Expect cool and mostly dry conditions next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 125 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 NQA radar is showing some light precip returns this afternoon that will gradually increase in coverage and intensity throughout the day. This is ahead of a deep occluded surface low currently centered over the TX/OK Panhandles. While the instability corridor will most likely remain well displaced to our southwest, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out overnight as the bulk of the precip moves through. The period with the highest PoPs (80-90%) looks to be between midnight tonight and sunrise tomorrow. Expect QPF values just under an inch from now through tomorrow afternoon, especially along and north of I-40. While the aforementioned surface low approaches, the pressure gradient across the CWA will continue to tighten throughout the day. In addition, a 60 kt 925 mb jet will materialize across the MS Delta shortly before midnight. These two features in conjunction will contribute to elevated surface winds overnight with sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts up to 40 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect for much of the area, excluding parts of northeast MS, from 10PM tonight to 7AM tomorrow. The presence of a very steep inversion prominent on several observed and forecast soundings may make it difficult for these elevated winds to mix all the way down to the surface. This caveat is the main factor limiting the confidence in actually meeting Wind Advisory criteria (25 mph sustained winds) overnight. As the low pulls away from the Mid-South, a reinforcing cold front looks to arrive late Friday night, bringing a secondary round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms for much of the day Saturday. Ensemble probabilities of CAPE > 500 J/kg are essentially negligible everywhere except for portions of northeast MS, so if we do see a few rumbles of thunder, it would likely be in the Tupelo area on Saturday morning. In the extended forecast, a fairly nondescript surface pattern will set up under a 170 kt upper level jet. Barring any shortwave features ejecting from the central Plains, the remainder of the forecast period next week looks benign with cool and mostly dry conditions. CAD && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 LLWS and IFR CIGs will be the main concerns this period as a low pressure system moves across the Mid-South. LLWS of 45-55 kts at FL020 will continue through the early morning hours. The exact magnitude of surface winds will depend on how much mixing occurs, but overall expect strong southeast winds gusting to around 20 kts. Conditions will begin improving by midday as showers push out of the region. By the end of the period, gusty winds will cease and CIGs will return to MVFR/VFR. ANS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...ANS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe (D2) drought conditions worsened to extreme (D3) drought conditions early in the month.
Severe (D2) drought conditions worsened to extreme (D3) drought conditions by the end of the month.
Severe (D2) drought conditions continued through the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, December 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1151627, 1151628, 1151629.