A strong trough of low pressure moving across northern Arizona produce heavy snow, strong winds, and lower elevation flooding due to heavy rain.
Every event with a place to put it; 9 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A strong trough of low pressure moving across northern Arizona produce heavy snow, strong winds, and lower elevation flooding due to heavy rain.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 14, 10:51 AM MST, 4 hours 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1051 AM MST Sat Jan 14 2023 .SYNOPSIS...Warmer temperatures and dry conditions are expected today before several rounds of rain and snow push across Arizona starting this evening, lasting through Tuesday. Significant snow accumulation is expected over the High Country above 5500 feet, with minor flooding possible in the lower elevations. && .UPDATE...Cloudy skies this morning across northern Arizona as our next storm system approaches. Weather will be dry for most areas through this afternoon and at least early evening, so any outdoor or travel plans across the high country are best accomplished now. Not much has changed regarding the first round of rain and snow that is due later this evening through Sunday, see below for details. If anything, rain and snow amounts are looking slightly heavier than previously. The next wave of rain and snow will feature lower snow levels than this first one, with a cold low moving overhead by Tuesday. We will be considering a Winter Storm Watch for portions of the area from Monday afternoon or evening into Tuesday with the afternoon package. In addition, very strong winds look increasingly likely over the downslope areas off the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mtns late tonight and Sunday morning (Vernon, Springerville, Eagar) and we will be looking at a Wind Advisory or High Wind Warning in these areas. && .PREV DISCUSSION /340 AM MST/...Look for one more day of fair weather and mild temperatures but with increasing southwest winds and clouds as a moist Pacific trough approaches Arizona during the day. Tonight through Sunday...The first in a series of Pacific troughs will move across Arizona. There will be ample moisture and large- scale dynamics for upward motion with this system to produce widespread precipitation. In addition, 50 to 60 mph winds just off the surface will result in decent upslope enhancement on any southwest facing slopes. The snow level will start out in the 6000 to 7000 foot range this evening but steadily fall through the night as colder air moves in with the trough. By Sunday morning snow levels will range from around 5000 feet across northwest Arizona to 6500 feet over the White Mountains region in east central Arizona. The strongest upslope and heaviest snow will be located along the Kaibab Plateau, Mogollon Rim and White Mountains where 6 to 12 inches of snow is expected with higher amounts over the mountain peaks and the southern edge of the Kaibab Plateau and Mogollon Rim. At elevations above 6000 feet across the northeast corner of Arizona away from the deeper moisture snow is not expected to be as heavy but still 2 to 6 inches of snow accumulation is expected through Sunday. Whiteout conditions will be possible from late this evening through midday Sunday with travel conditions majorly impeded. Lower elevations south of the Mogollon Rim will largely see rain with area washes and creeks beginning to flow/rise. A few low water crossings are bound to be flooded but nothing more significant than that is anticipated. A Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Saturday night and Sunday storm go to weather.gov/flagstaff for details. From Monday into Tuesday...On Monday the air mass will remain cold and moist with snow showers continuing at elevations above 5500-6500 feet, rain showers at lower elevations. By late Monday afternoon the next trough begins to move in. This system will be intensifying as it approaches Arizona and will contain stronger large-scale dynamics for upward lift than the Sunday storm. Upslope flow with this second trough will be only slightly weaker. With ample moisture remaining across the area snow and rain showers will dramatically increase with the onset of dynamics Monday night. The most recent model runs have increased precipitation amounts with this second storm due it's stronger intensity. Expect another round of serious winter driving conditions Monday night through Tuesday. We will be keeping an eye on this one but anticipate an additional Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory will be needed. Wednesday onward...It will remain cold and unsettled with another cold but drier trough due in later on Thursday into Friday which could produce additional snow showers. We'll keep you posted. && .AVIATION...For the 18Z TAF package...VFR persist through 00Z with increasing mid to upper-level cloud cover. Southwest winds develop this afternoon, sustained 10-20 kts with gusts of 25-35 kts. They will continue to get stronger over the higher terrain overnight with gusts up to 45 kts along a KFLG-KSOW-KJTC line. Moderate turbulence is likely. Conditions begin to deteriorate by 03Z as rain and snow develop from west to east. Widespread MVFR/IFR with localized LIFR VIS and CIGS are expected overnight and into Sunday morning resulting in mountain obscuration. Heavy snowfall with significant accumulation and blowing snow is likely for KGCN-KCMR-KFLG during this time. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Gusty southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph, with gusts 30 to 40 mph are expected through tonight. Dry conditions remain for this afternoon, with widespread rain and snow developing from west to east later this evening, continuing into Sunday. Significant snowfall accumulation is likely in the High Country during this time. Monday through Wednesday...Periods of breezy southwest winds and rain and snow is expected to continue through Tuesday, with drier conditions returning on Wednesday as winds shift to the northwest and temperatures remain cold. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST Sunday for AZZ004-104. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006>008-038-106>108-138. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 PM MST Sunday for AZZ011-017-018-039-111-117-118-139. Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Sunday for AZZ015-115. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 5 PM MST Sunday for AZZ016-116. && PUBLIC...JJ/Humphreys AVIATION...LaGuardia FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 heavy snow, 3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Nine inches of snow fell about 6 miles north of Ash Fork.
The Grand Canyon National Park reported 10.6 inches of snow at the Desert Watch Tower view point and 8.8 at the Grand Canyon Village. Fifteen inches of new snow fell in 24 hours at the North Rim campground with 50 inches of snow on the ground.
Heavy snow fell across the Mogollon Rim. Some of the snowfall totals include (in inches): Bellemont (NWS Flagstaff) 23.5, Kachina Village 20.0, Parks 19.5, Williams 6E 19.0, Flagstaff Airport 17.7, Mountainaire 17.0, 7 N Williams 14.0, 10 N Parks 14.0, and Winona 8.0.
Wupatki National Monument reported 14 inches of snow.
Ten inches of snow fell three miles west of Walker.
Nine inches of snow fell one mile east of Forest Lakes.
The ADOT weather station at mile marker 378 (8 miles 8 WNW of Greer) measured a peak wind gust of 58 MPH at 1103 PM on January 14. The weather station on Greens Peak had a peak wind gust of 63 MPH at 1230 AM on January 15. The wind gusted to at least 58 MPH between 1215 AM and 145 AM.
The Springerville Airport reported sustained winds of 40 MPH and/or gusts over 58 MPH between 150 AM and 740 AM. The peak wind gust was 75 MPH at 455 AM and the maximum sustain wind was 56 MPH at the same time.
The Limestone Canyon RAWS reported a peak wind gust of 61 MPH at 224 AM.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, January 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1076164, 1074489, 1074488, 1074492, 1074493, 1074494, 1074497, 1074720, 1074749.