A potent storm system moving over Arizona resulted in very strong winds in excess of 50-60 mph across most of the region on the 22nd, especially during the morning through the afternoon hours.
Every event with a place to put it; 9 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PSR wrote it up.
A potent storm system moving over Arizona resulted in very strong winds in excess of 50-60 mph across most of the region on the 22nd, especially during the morning through the afternoon hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 22, 3:59 AM MST, 3 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
359 AM MST Wed Feb 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong winter storm will sweep through the Southwest today
yielding light showers and a few isolated thunderstorms along
with high terrain snow. Along with much cooler temperatures, winds
will be the most notable threat with this system. Windy to very
windy conditions will develop tonight and continue through
Wednesday, which will also cause blowing dust issues. Below normal
temperatures will continue through the remainder of the forecast
period, with the next broad chance for precipitation over the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A very windy day is in store for the region today as a powerful
winter storm moves through the Great Basin. Very strong winds have
already materialized across southeast California where peak wind
gusts in excess of 50 mph have been observed. Winds of this
magnitude have generated blowing dust, leading to reduced
visibilities down to 1-2 SM in some areas, including Blythe. A
Blowing Dust Advisory remains in effect for much of southeast
California through the afternoon. Across south-central Arizona this
morning, wind gusts as of 3 AM were running between 25-35 mph for
most areas, though Phoenix Sky Harbor has already reached 40 mph
early this morning. We'll see winds across the region continue to
increase over the next several hours.
Early morning objective analysis showed the trough axis shifting
across southern California with a powerful 130+ kt jet max rounding
the base of the trough. The associated cold front is currently seen
pushing into northwest Arizona where it is acting to generate
precip along with a few lightning strikes. This front will quickly
race across the state over the next several hours and will lead
to increasing winds across the forecast area. Probabilities of
wind gusts in excess of 40 mph remain very high (near 100%) across
the entire region while chances for gusts in excess of 58 mph
remain highest over Imperial County and the high terrain east of
Phoenix. High Wind Warnings remain in effect through the
afternoon/early evening for the aforementioned areas with Wind
Advisories in effect elsewhere across the CWA. Strong, gusty winds
will ramp up ahead of and with the frontal passage this morning,
which will notably occur right around the morning rush hour. This
will lead to difficult driving conditions, particularly for high
profile vehicles. Additionally, impacts across the area will
include light unsecured objects being blown around while areas
that see the strongest winds are more likely to have power outages
and property damage. With these winds will come the potential for
blowing dust, especially in dust prone areas, which will make
travel dangerous due to reduced visibilities.
The frontal passage will also generate some light showers across
south-central Arizona as it moves through this morning. The quick
moving nature of this system will limit rainfall amounts below 0.10"
for places across the lower deserts while greater amounts will
reside across the high terrain to the east of Phoenix. Thunderstorm
chances will be low (<15%) given the lack of instability but a few
lightning strikes can't be ruled out at least. Any convection that
develops may lead to locally enhanced winds. Snow levels above 6,000
ft will quickly fall with the frontal passage and allow for a
transition to snow across the southern Gila County high terrain.
Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for elevations above 5,000 ft
and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for elevations above
4,000 ft.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Thursday into Friday, another closed low moves south along the
California coast. Precip chances continue in upslope areas of
central Arizona Thursday though reduce Friday as the pattern
becomes more amplified and ridging ahead of the system takes hold
over our CWA. Temperatures will warm a bit during this time but
still stay below normal (the forecast high of 58F at KPHX Thu is
approaching the record cool high of 55F). That closed system will
then move inland over the weekend, spreading precipitation chances
into the CWA. Ensemble uncertainty, unsurprisingly, is primarily
driven by latitudinal position with minor uncertainty to system
depth. Cluster analysis reveals the majority of members favoring a
moderate or slower forward progression with a minority of members
(~20%) falling into a quicker solution. Ultimately precipitation
chances increase Saturday across our western CWA, spreading east
Saturday night into Sunday. Current deterministic QPF is 0.1-0.3"
for lower elevations, upwards of an inch in JTNP, and 0.3-0.7" for
upslope/elevated area of the eastern CWA. Probability for 0.1"+ is
about 50-80% CWA-wide with notable chances for 0.5"+ confined to
typical upslope areas. Once this system roles through this
weekend, a brief respite looks likely early next week though
medium range data continue to support long wave troughing along
the West Coast well into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 0530Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
IMPACTS:
-Southerly crosswinds at PHX overnight, increasing to 15-25KT.
-Band(s) of windy showers with 5-10% chance of lightning between
12-15Z (gusts may exceed 40 KT). Potential MVFR CIGs 12-15Z.
-Continued windy Wednesday with dust/slantwise VIS restrictions.
CONFIDENCE: High
No major changes from last update. Overnight, S/SW winds slowly
ramp up and eventually gust 15-25KT around the metro. Lighter
winds are also a concern at DVT/SDL and LLWS was added for a few
hours to account for this.
From 12-15Z, a strong cold front pushes across the metro with
showers, 5-10% lightning chance, and even stronger W/SW winds.
Peak gusts will be on the order of 35-45KT with an outside (<10%)
chance of a 50KT gust. Risk for MVFR ceilings is around 30-60%.
Showers will exit quickly by 15Z as CIGs rapidly improve.
Mid-morning through the afternoon, WSW winds will continue to howl
from 20-30KT gusts 35-40KT beneath SCT/BKN 070-090 bases.
Slantwise VIS reductions are expected from a long fetch of
dust/haze. Winds to really diminish near and after sunset
tomorrow evening.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
IMPACTS:
-Gusty to locally damaging SW/W winds overnight through Wed.
-Periods of blowing dust with significant VIS restrictions.
CONFIDENCE: High
Winds in excess of 40 KT have been occurring with cut visibilities
due to dust. Stronger winds will develop ahead of and following a
cold front, which will push through both terminals between 7-10Z.
A prolonged period of westerly wind gusts up to 45-55 kts is
likely. An occasional gust up to 60-65 kts cannot be ruled out
(20% chance) at KIPL. Small planes could be flipped if not tied
down properly outside. BLDU persists, which will be capable of
reducing visibility down to IFR/LIFR at times. FEW to SCT clouds,
down to 060-070 are likely at times with the front at KBLH pre-
dawn. There is also a low chance (10%) for a shower at KBLH with
the front.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A strong weather system will bring widespread strong, gusty
winds, precipitation chances, and cooler weather today. Strong
winds will continue to increase through the morning before
weakening going into this evening. Winds in excess of 40 mph are
likely (near 100%) for much of the area, with gusts in excess of
58 mph likely (>90%) across the southern Gila County high terrain
and Imperial County. Precipitation with this system is expected to
remain on the light side with the highest amounts across southern
Gila County. Unsettled weather will continue for the end of the
week.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for AZZ530>533-535-
536.
High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ541-545-547-
552-557-558-561.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ534-537>540-
542>544-546-548>551-553>556-559-560-562-563.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ557-558-
563.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ557-
558-563.
CA...Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ560-561-
568>570.
Blowing Dust Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
CAZ563>567-569-570.
High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ562>567.
&&
DISCUSSION...Smith
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Iniguez
AVIATION...Heil
FIRE WEATHER...SmithThe Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 93 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 14:11 UTC.
7 high wind, 2 strong wind, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A mesonet station near Tonto Basin measured a wind gust of 59 mph.
A Yuma Proving Ground Station measured a wind gust of 61 mph.
A mesonet station in Paradise Valley measured a wind gust of 61 mph.
A large uprooted tree broke a main water pipe, causing water to be cut off to an apartment complex located in the area of North 32nd Street and East Shea Blvd. No injuries were reported.
A mesonet station located near Tortilla Flat measured a wind gust of 72 mph as a line of showers and storms quickly moved eastward through the foothills north and east of Phoenix.
A very large uprooted tree fell near a house in Casa Grande. No injuries were reported.
Shingles taken off roof along with large tree down were reported in the area of Miami. No injuries were reported.
Northbound lanes of Alma School were blocked from Elliot to the Western Canal due to a tree in the roadway in Chandler. No injuries were reported.
A video posted onto Facebook showed wood frames blew down at a construction site near the Walmart in the city of Maricopa. No injuries were reported.
A wind gust of 59 mph was measured at the Yuma International Airport.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1082425, 1082423, 1082424, 1082427, 1082434, 1082433, 1082428, 1082430, 1082431, 1082432.