High Wind in Alaska, January 1, 2023

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
606 AM AKST Sun Jan 1 2023

.SHORT TERM...A strong weather system moves across the Gulf to
ring in the New Year. A deep mid 950 Mb low south of Kodiak Island
weakens and stays close to the Island while the front finally
pushes into the panhandle Sunday night. Strong winds with the
front will be raising gusts for the communities of Southeast
Alaska. Several strong wind headlines have been posted for Sunday
and Sunday night for gusts of 40 to 55 mph.

The southerly flow pattern has also spread in some warmer air that
has been clearing pockets of colder air in valleys and working way
northward. Winds Switch south at Haines last evening and had the
temperature jump 9 degrees into the mid-30s. Colder temperatures
linger along northern stretches of the Haines Highway and Klondike
Highways, so some snow accumulations are possible in those areas.
Have tried to keep the amounts below advisory levels. The heaviest
precipitation this morning and afternoon is centered on the
Central and Northeast Gulf Coast the focus of the frontal band
shifts east of the panhandle through Sunday afternoon. 24 Rainfall
totals for the panhandle are expected to be 1 to 2 inches while
west of Yakutat up to 3 inches. Not expecting to see any flooding
from this amount of precipitation.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/...A strong low pressure
system moves into the Western Gulf tracking toward Kodiak for the
weekend. The first associated front tracks into the NE Gulf
Saturday night with storm force barrier jet. This will bring the
first heavy band of precip to the NE Panhandle coast. Second front
more N to SE oriented and will bring in storm force winds to most
of the Eastern Gulf Sunday. Seas building to 30+ ft as well with
these advancing fronts. Inner channel winds will near gale force
as the second front tracks over the panhandle. In addition to the
increased winds the second front will bring in moderate to heavy
precipitation due to long fetch of tropical moisture. NE Gulf
Coast will be getting precip from both fronts and thus have
highest totals for the weekend. Rainfall totals of upwards of 2-3
inches for NE Coast with 1-2 for other areas for the event. With
the southerly flow and WAA raising surface temps into the 40s
precip will fall mostly as rain, with the exception of far
northern locations and at higher elevations. Those northern areas
that will remain mostly as snow could see accumulations of 4 to 8+
inches of heavy wet snow. Latest model runs were backing off on
PoP and precip totals for the southern areas as well as getting a
more defined/narrow band of storm force winds over the gulf. GFS
has been still most aggressive with the winds.

The low from the New Year storm system weakens and dissipates near
Kodiak Island Monday through Tuesday. Another developing low will
move northwards into the eastern half of the gulf. The models and
ensembles have poor agreement on positioning and strength, only
agree that something will move through around midweek.

&&

.AVIATION.../ at 12z Issuance /...The incoming front is sliding
in from the the south and will keep ceilings and visibility low
due to the precipitation. Second, winds are a problem. LLWS, and
maybe turbulence, is widespread around SE AK this morning. These
conditions are likely to last through Sunday as the front tracks
through the panhandle.

&&

.MARINE...Barrier jet winds will increase across the north-
central coast this morning to Storm Force 50kt. As the triple
point pushes into the region, seas will build in excess of 20ft.
Strongest, and gusty, winds are expected with the cold front that
tracks across the gulf through early Sunday. A band of 45-50kt
winds remain in the forecast along the front as it moves over the
outside waters during the daytime New Year's day. S-SELY winds
will trend up through the inside waters tonight, then peak during
Sunday afternoon as the cold front moves in. Gale force winds are
likely near the ocean entrances and up Clarence Strait. Seas over
the outside waters will continue to build on Sunday to 30ft with a
strong southerly swell.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ317-327.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ318-
     319.
     Strong Wind from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM AKST this afternoon
     for AKZ322.
     Strong Wind through this evening for AKZ323.
     Strong Wind until 6 AM AKST early this morning for AKZ325.
     Strong Wind from 9 AM AKST this morning through this evening for
     AKZ325-328.
     Strong Wind from noon AKST today through this evening for AKZ326-
     330.
     Strong Wind through this evening for AKZ329.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ042-043-051-052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ033>036-041-053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031-032.

&&

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....Fritsch

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