Winter Storm and Extreme Cold in Alaska, February 4 to 7, 2023

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
407 AM AKST Sat Feb 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Snow will taper to flurries in the Interior with some
breaks in the clouds this afternoon. Another upper level shortwave
will bring mainly flurries to the Interior tonight with a chance
of accumulating snow. Temperature remain very cold in the Arctic
with a mix of clouds and some patchy flurries and fog. Some
blowing snow from Point Lay south will impact visibility. The West
Coast is generally quiet except for St Lawrence Island and the
Bering Strait Coast where periods of blizzard conditions will
occur today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 04/00Z solutions showing a similar trend to more of
a trough pattern over the state moving into the midrange. Current
progressive pattern over the southern half of the state is still
giving the models problems. Solution timing of the shortwaves
still varies. Will maintain continuity by only making minor
adjustments. The next shortwave will produce mainly flurries in
the Interior with a slight chance of accumulating snow. GFS and
NAM are handling most areas well, the exception is the Arctic
where winds area swinging around and generally less than 10 mph.
Will lean toward the Canadian solution over water. Temperatures
database looks pretty good, so not going to make any changes for
the short term.

Aloft...A 541 dam high remains high in the Siberian Arctic with
ridging extending south over Chukotka and southeast over the
Beaufort Sea. The high will slide to the west through Sunday. Weak
troughing remains over the Arctic Coast extending from Banks
Island over Utqiagvik to the Chuktsk Peninsula Coast. Weak trough
moving over the Central and Eastern Interior lies over Allakaket
to Chicken this morning as it continues northeast. Weak
transitory ridge lies from Yakutat to Galena. A 502 dam low that
persists southwest of St Matthew Island with a shortwave extending
northeast to the Lower Yukon Delta, then southeast over Aniak to
Kodiak City. This afternoon the transitory ridging will lie over
Chicken to Fairbanks to Ambler. The shortwave to the southwest
will lie over Nome to Anchorage. Weak ridging will be just
southwest of the trough over Kodiak City to Hooper Bay and
west over St Matthew Island. Several 500 dam lows will be over
the Bering Sea near the Dateline and Pribilofs. Sunday morning no
change in the Arctic, with over the state the ridging will be
over Eagle to Allakaket, trough will be over the AlCan highway to
Tanana to Galena, with weak ridging to the southwest from the
Gulf of Alaska to Norton Sound to St Lawrence Island. Lows in the
Bering Sea will be over the Pribilofs at 498 dam. At 850 hpa...The
-10C isotherm is generally south of the Alaska Range and the
Seward Peninsula and will start to slide back north late Sunday,
but still be south of the Yukon River. A couple cold pools with
temperatures around -20C remain over the Eastern Brooks Range and
the Upper Yukon Flats, but will be moderating Sunday.

Surface...The high in the Arctic is 600 nm northwest of Wrangel
Island as high pressure continues to push south over the Chukotsk
Peninsula, the Arctic Coast, south into the northern Interior, and
southeast across the Beaufort Sea. Broad low pressure remains
across the state with inverted troughs over the West Coast, and
the Central and Eastern Interior. The troughing will continue over
the West Coast through the weekend, while the troughing over the
Interior will weaken. A weather front associated with a low near
St Matthew Island is swinging around to Bering Strait where it
will stall and fall apart. Weak inverted trough continues over
the Southern Interior as a 998 mb low remains near Whittier. A 983
mb low remains near St Matthew Island, while a 992 mb low has
moved to 300 nm southwest of the Pribilofs, and a 981 mb low is
moving to the Western Aleutians. This afternoon the lows in the
Bering Sea start to merge near the Pribilofs while the low near
Whittier persists as do the inverted troughs. High pressure
continues in the Arctic and will continue across the area through
Sunday as the high moves north of the New Siberian Islands. Sunday
afternoon a rapidly developing low in the North Pacific will move
to Kodiak City at 959 mb as the low near Whittier merges with it,
and the low near the Pribilofs starts to merge with it.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A mix of clouds on the northwest
coast and in the Brooks Range, with mainly clear skies east of
Utqiagvik. Wind chill to 55 below east of Utqiagvik, and around
Point Lay. Blowing snow will also impact the Point Lay area at
times. Winds along the coast mainly northeast to east at 10 to 25
mph, with strongest winds on the northwest coast, while winds in
the plains and the Brooks Range will be variable to 10 mph. High
temperatures today and Sunday will range from around 20 below to
around 40 below. Low temperatures tonight will range from around
20 below to 50 below.

West Coast and Western Interior...Most of the activity will be on
St Lawrence Island and in the Bering Strait as a weather front is
pushing north into the area. Blizzard conditions will continue
into the afternoon as the winds increase to gusting around 50
mph, and blowing snow off the ice combines with falling snow to
reduce visibility to near zero at times. Snow in the Lower Yukon
Delta, around Nome, and in the Bering Strait will be tapering
off. Snowfall will generally be less than 2 inches. From the
Seward Peninsula north a mix of clouds through Sunday. Winds for
the remainder of the area generally less than 15 mph with some
local gusts along the coast to 25 mph. High temperatures today in
the single digits below and below inland to around 20 above in the
Lower Yukon Delta. Sunday highs range from around 5 below to
around 15 above in the Lower Yukon Delta. St Lawrence Island
temperatures will fall significantly with highs around zero. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the teens below to around 15
above in the Lower Yukon Delta. Lows on St Lawrence Island near 5
below.

Central and Eastern Interior...A few flurries this morning, then
some breaks in the clouds during the afternoon and evening before
more clouds and flurries move across the area tonight. More
breaks in the clouds on Sunday. Snowfall less than one inch.
Winds variable to 10 mph. High temperatures today and Sunday will
range from around 15 below at Arctic Village to the teens above in
the Alaska Range. Around Fairbanks highs today and Sunday range
from 5 to 10 above. Low temperatures tonight will range from
around 25 below at Arctic Village to the single digits above in
the Alaska Range. Fairbanks area lows will range from zero to 10
below.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Some snow across the Interior
and the Middle Yukon Valley will be tapering off Wednesday. A mix
of clouds for the remainder of the area through Friday. A strong
low will be moving into the Bering Sea Thursday and the associated
weather from will move to the West Coast Friday morning moving
north through the weekend spreading snow to the West Coast and
Western Interior.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ213.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-225-230.

&&

SDB FEB 23