A surface warm front located across north-central North Carolina tracked into Virginia by the afternoon and evening hours. At the same time, a mid-level disturbance tracked east from the Tennessee Valley into the North Carolina/Virginia region.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A surface warm front located across north-central North Carolina tracked into Virginia by the afternoon and evening hours. At the same time, a mid-level disturbance tracked east from the Tennessee Valley into the North Carolina/Virginia region. Aided by copious moisture and favorable flow for isolated tornadoes/damaging winds, there was one single report of a tree down in Halifax County. Most storms stayed below severe limits, forming mainly along the warm front over the northeast Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain in the afternoon and evening. Additional storms pushed east into the western and central Piedmont overnight into August 1st, but stayed below severe limits.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 11:29 AM EST, 1 hour earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1229 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A surface front across southern NC will lift north into Virginia today. Otherwise, very moist and humid air will remain in place through Monday as weak disturbances aloft move through the region. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM Sunday... The surface warm front, which currently extends across the northern counties will lift north into southern and central Virginia by the afternoon. Moisture pooling along the front is anomalously high, with PWATS of 2.00-2.4"(2 to 3 S.D. above normal and currently forecast to exceed the daily record maximum )observed at KGSO and KMHX soundings respectively. The early morning convection associated with the warm moist air advection ahead of the warm front and a MCV is lifting off to north. There will be a brief lull in convection during the mid to late morning hours. Initially hindered by the low clouds/stratus, as tempered daytime heating warms BL temps into the mid 80s, convection will re-develop INVOF the lingering front and other weak thermal moisture boundaries(TMB). Additional upstream convection is expected to move into the from the west during the late afternoon/early evening , via weak shortwave impulses/mcvs(currently over the TN Valley)traversing the area. Rainfall amounts through tonight are expected to range from 0.25" across the southern counties to 0.75-1.25" along and north of Highway 64. Pockets of higher amounts of 1.5 to 3" will be possible over the northern Coastal Plain and the NE Piedmont, near the VA border where the front will promote slow-moving or training convection. This will lead to a threat for flash flooding, especially over urban or poor drainage areas. While 20-30kts of bulk shear and lapse rates are not particularly strong/favorable, given the potential for the surface front and a potential meso low to enhance the low-level shear/helicity locally(INVOF the front) a multi-mix mode of one or two multicellular clusters and isolated supercells are possible across northern NC and Virginia. Isolated wind damage with water-loaded downdrafts, and perhaps a brief/weak tornado will be possible. Highs ranging from lower 80s north to upper 80s/near 90 south. The convective intensity and heavy rain/flooding threat should wane after loss of heating with the bulk of storms lifting north, out of the area by 06z. Mild overnight lows 69 to 74. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Sunday... The warm front will move further into VA on Monday, with an Appalachian Lee trough developing across our area in the afternoon. A shortwave will move across the Mid-Atlantic in the afternoon, with mostly west to west-northwest flow aloft across central NC. Scattered storms will develop in the afternoon, but are not expected to be severe at this time with weak shear across the region. Highs: Mid/Upper 80s N to mid-90s S. Heat Index Values: Low 90s N to upper 90s S. Lows: Low 70s N to mid-70s S && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1229 PM Sunday... Aloft, west/northwesterly flow will continue Tuesday into Wednesday morning as weak upper-troughing slowly lifts into the North Atlantic. A brief period of zonal flow will follow Wednesday, before another short-wave trough digs down into the Ohio Valley/Mid- Atlantic later this week. Additionally, the EPS/GEFS continue to depict an approaching TUTT off the southeast coast late next weekend. At the surface, central NC will be wedged between the offshore Bermuda high, and a weak high pressure over the Great Lakes promoting west/northwesterly surface flow Tuesday through Wednesday. Ensembles are in good agreement that rain chances Tuesday/Wednesday will be relatively low, with mostly afternoon isolated showers/storms focused along the Piedmont trough and/or sea breeze. Surface flow turns more east/southeasterly Thursday through the weekend as the western edge of the Bermuda high re-establishes control over the southeast. Consequently, increasing fetch off the Atlantic, coupled with a slowly southward sagging cold front to the north will increase precipitation chances through this period. However, there is still uncertainty in where the strongest moisture axis will drift, and how much rain central NC will experience through next weekend. The mean GEFS/EPS output seem to be more keen on keeping the heaviest rainfall axis west and north of the area along the Appalachians, while the CMC ensemble output suggests it will drift down into our area. Regardless, it appears most ensemble guidance suggests the best rain chances will be Saturday into Sunday. Lastly, it'll be worth watching if the models continue to depict a westward propagating TUTT off the southeast coast, which could increase moisture flux into our area and potentially increase rain chances early next week. Temperature wise, hot and humid conditions will continue with highs in the lower to mid 90s Tuesday through Friday, before relaxing a bit next weekend with increasing cloud/rain coverage. Lows will remain warm in the lower 70s through the extended period. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 645 AM Sunday... 24 hour TAF period: SHRA and scattered TSRA will continue across the northern Piedmont this morning, lowering VIS to sub-VFR at times in heavy rain. Isolated MVFR to IFR stratus and VIS will linger for a few more hours before improving back to VFR conditions. SHRA/TSRA will increase in coverage this afternoon and evening, mainly for the northern half of central NC, and generate sub-VFR conditions at times. Storms will diminish in coverage towards the end of the TAF period, however low stratus and FG/BR will develop again early Mon morning. Looking ahead: Scattered SHRA/TSRA will continue into early this week, with lower chances by mid-week. Sub-VFR stratus/FG/BR are possible in the mornings through the period. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Blaes NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...JJT LONG TERM...Luchetti AVIATION...JJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 428 AM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-076>078-010830- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance- Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake- Johnston-Wilson-Lee-Harnett-Wayne- 428 AM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered flash flooding is possible this afternoon and evening, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. There is also a marginal risk of severe storms with damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. NCZ073>075-083>086-088-089-010830- Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland- Sampson- 428 AM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Isolated flash flooding is possible this afternoon and evening, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. There is also a marginal risk of severe storms with damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. JJT
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
121 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022
NCZ008-025-026-041-311815-
Franklin NC-Durham NC-Wake NC-Granville NC-
121 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022
...A cluster of strong thunderstorms will impact portions of
southern Granville, northwestern Wake, Durham and west central
Franklin Counties through 215 PM EDT...
At 121 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near RDU International, or 8 miles northwest of
Raleigh, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Creedmoor, Louisburg, Wake Forest, Butner,
Franklinton, RDU International and Morrisville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3616 7846 3613 7824 3579 7878 3598 7898
3624 7891 3624 7880
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 242DEG 23KT 3592 7875
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
NTLThe Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 91 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:26 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was reported down near the intersection of Ringwood Road and Heathsville Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1045918.