An upper-level disturbance lingering over the area in combination with MLCAPE of approximately 1000-1500 J/KG and DCAPE of around 1000 J/KG lead to the development of strong storms across portions of southern and central Arizona during the afternoon hours. Outflow winds led to areas of blowing dust with the more persistent storms leading to isolated flash flooding.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PSR wrote it up.
An upper-level disturbance lingering over the area in combination with MLCAPE of approximately 1000-1500 J/KG and DCAPE of around 1000 J/KG lead to the development of strong storms across portions of southern and central Arizona during the afternoon hours. Outflow winds led to areas of blowing dust with the more persistent storms leading to isolated flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 1:35 PM MST, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 135 PM MST Sun Jul 31 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Lesser storm coverage is expected through the middle of the week, with any activity expected to be confined mostly across the higher terrain areas. By the latter half of the week, increasing storm coverage is expected once again. Temperatures through the middle of the week will warm back to around normal. && .DISCUSSION... Latest objective analysis depicts two high pressure centers, one over the Great Basin region and another across New Mexico into western Texas. These two high pressure centers will consolidate over Arizona during the next couple of days. Meanwhile, a piece of upper-level energy associated with a PV lobe is moving into southern Arizona from northern Mexico. This piece will be the main instigator for storm activity across portions of southern and southeastern Arizona through this afternoon and early evening. Some of the activity developing across southern Arizona will likely move into portions of southwestern Arizona and maybe into portions of southeast California through the afternoon, with coverage expected to be less compared to yesterday. The main question as we head into later this afternoon and early evening is whether some of the storms that develop across southeastern Arizona will be able to survive the trip into south- central Arizona. Most of the latest Hi-res model guidance indicates that as the storms move into Pinal County, that they will weaken with only some gusty outflow winds reaching the Phoenix metro area later this evening. However, latest SPC mesoanalysis continues to show MLCAPE at 1000-1500 J/KG with DCAPE values approaching 1000 J/KG. Therefore, it is not out of question that some of these storms may survive the trip into the lower deserts of south- central Arizona, affecting portions of the Phoenix metro. SPC has put most of south-central and southern Arizona in a marginal risk of severe weather for this afternoon into this evening for the potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The latest HREF has a 30-40% of winds exceeding 35 mph in the Phoenix area this evening. Nevertheless, if any storms do survive the trip into the Phoenix metro, coverage is likely to be significantly less compared to yesterday. Strong gusty winds, blowing dust, and heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding will be main hazards associated with these storms. A break in the storm activity is still likely as we head towards the first part of the work week. With the aforementioned high pressure expected to consolidate over Arizona, any easterly waves will be deflected south of the international border. The associated subsidence from the high will lead to a drop in PWAT values to less than 1.5 inches. As a result, storm chances will be significantly reduced with NBM PoPs across the lower deserts at less than 10% and PoPs across the higher terrain areas of southern Gila County between 20-40%. With the decreased storm coverage, temperatures will be on a slight warming trend with highs warming back to around average at around 105 degrees across the lower deserts of south-central Arizona and between 105-109 degrees across the deserts areas of southwest Arizona and southeast California. As we head towards the latter half of the week into next weekend, the ensembles remain in pretty good agreement that the center of the high pressure will shift northeast into the Plains and Upper Midwest while an upper-level cutoff low becomes established over the eastern Pacific. This pattern configuration will put most of the desert southwest once again under southeasterly flow, with moisture increasing once again as PWATs surge to above 1.7 inches. In addition, easterly waves riding along the periphery will also be able to migrate into southern Arizona. Thus, the overall pattern will once again be favorable for increased storm activity, with all the monsoon thunderstorm hazards on the table. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2010Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Thunderstorms this afternoon are anticipated to become more numerous over Pima County and expand into Pinal and southwest Maricopa Counties. Outflow from those storms is anticipated to reach the Valley this evening in the 02Z-04Z time frame. Would expect to see some dust with the outflows but uncertainties remain in terms of how strong the outflow/s will be and in turn how dense the dust would be. Expecting substantially less thunderstorms directly over the TAF sites than yesterday. But, would expect at least isolated development. There may be some isolated showers in the overnight/pre- dawn hours but confidence too low to reflect that in the TAFs. As for sky cover, anticipate varying amounts of mainly mid and high clouds. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Storms over western Pima County are anticipated to expand north and west and may initiate new storms over southwest AZ later this afternoon. That in turn would lead to the potential for outflows to reach KBLH (less likely at KIPL). Too much uncertainty at this time to reflect a major wind change at this time. Overall, south and southeast winds will prevail through Monday along with some afternoon gustiness. As for sky cover, anticipate a period of increased mid-high clouds later this afternoon and tonight as remnants of storm activity over AZ and Mexico. && .FIRE WEATHER... Modest drying will spread into the region during the first half of the week with thunderstorm and rainfall chances becoming more focused over higher terrain areas of eastern districts. Eventually by the end of the week, better wetting rain chances will migrate back into lower elevations. Overall, the fire threat will remain low given humidity levels and recent rainfall. Minimum humidity levels will remain somewhat elevated mostly ranging from 20-30%, except 30- 40% over higher terrain of eastern areas. Recovery will vary widely between 30-90% depending on thunderstorm and rainfall locations any given day. Winds will generally remain light with some occasional afternoon upslope gusts, and isolated stronger gusts near thunderstorms. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && DISCUSSION...Lojero/18 AVIATION...AJ FIRE WEATHER...18
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
906 AM MST SUN JUL 31 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1228 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SW MIAMI 33.39N 110.89W
07/28/2022 GILA AZ PUBLIC
A VIDEO POSTED ON SOCIAL MEDIA SHOWED STRONG
FLOW MOVING ALONG THE BLOODY TANKS WASH,
RESULTING A STREET CROSSING THE WASH NEAR
MACKEY CAMP TO BE COMPLETELY IMPASSABLE.
&&
GLPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
908 AM MST SUN JUL 31 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0106 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 ENE APACHE JUNCTION 33.43N 111.52W
07/28/2022 PINAL AZ BROADCAST MEDIA
CORRECTS PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD REPORT FROM 2
ENE APACHE JUNCTION. AN SUV WAS SWEPT AWAY
IN A WASH AT THE INTERSECTION OF E TEPEE ST.
AND N CORTEZ ROAD. THE WOMAN WAS EVENTUALLY
RESCUED BUT HER DOG WENT MISSING.
&&
GLPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1259 PM MST SUN JUL 31 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0935 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 SE DEER VALLEY 33.63N 112.08W
07/30/2022 MARICOPA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA
***DELAYED REPORT*** PEOPLE STRANDED ON CARS
DURING A FLOOD.
&&
JMSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
109 PM MST Sun Jul 31 2022
AZZ539-559-312100-
Sonoran Desert Natl Monument AZ-Gila Bend AZ-
109 PM MST Sun Jul 31 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Maricopa County
through 200 PM MST...
At 107 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Ajo, moving west at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hazards to motorists due to blowing dust causing reduced
visibility and strong winds causing difficult handling
conditions.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of Maricopa County.
This includes AZ Route 85 south of Gila Bend.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3271 11313 3268 11268 3251 11272 3251 11317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 099DEG 16KT 3253 11282
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
AJSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
207 PM MST Sun Jul 31 2022
AZZ535-536-538-539-553-554-559-312145-
Sonoran Desert Natl Monument AZ-Gila River Valley AZ-
Southeast Yuma County AZ-Northwest Pinal County AZ-Tonopah Desert AZ-
Gila Bend AZ-West Pinal County AZ-
207 PM MST Sun Jul 31 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Yuma,
Maricopa and Pinal Counties through 245 PM MST...
At 206 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a group of strong
thunderstorms south of I-8, moving west at 10-20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hazards to motorists due to blowing dust causing reduced
visibility and strong winds causing difficult handling
conditions.
Locations impacted include...
Gila Bend, Maricopa, Kaka, Freeman, Dateland, Sonoran National
Monument, Mohawk, Mobile and Ak-Chin Village.
This includes the following highways...
AZ Interstate 8 between mile markers 49 and 155.
AZ Route 238 between mile markers 1 and 43.
AZ Route 85 between mile markers 1 and 136.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3247 11381 3288 11386 3318 11261 3309 11205
3272 11207 3272 11214 3268 11215 3268 11220
3250 11221 3250 11333 3246 11334
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 099DEG 16KT 3258 11236
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
AJThe Phoenix radar (KIWA), 52 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:42 UTC.
3 dust storm, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Visibility of less than 1/4 mile reported along the intersection of N Thornton Road and Highway 84 in Casa Grande due to blowing dust from thunderstorm outflow. No accidents or injuries were reported.
Visibility of less than 1/4 mile reported along Salome Road southeast of Salome in blowing dust from thunderstorm outflow. No accidents or injuries were reported.
Cruff Wash streamflow gauge reached bank full with peak flow of 1000 cfs and a rapid 3.75 foot rise. A low water crossing along Agua Caliente Rd was likely impacted. No damages or injuries were reported.
Visibility of less than 1/4 mile reported along the intersection of Elliot Road and Estrella Parkway in Goodyear in blowing dust from thunderstorm outflow. No accidents or injuries were reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1048641, 1048647, 1048657, 1048642.