A weak warm frontal passage aided convective downpours in a weak steering environment.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MRX wrote it up.
A weak warm frontal passage aided convective downpours in a weak steering environment.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 12:53 PM EST, 30 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 153 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 .UPDATE... FOR 18Z AVIATION. && .DISCUSSION... Current radar imagery shows an area of moderately strong convection lifting northeast through our Virginia counties this morning, with not much else going on in our CWA. That will change however, as we continue to destabilize this morning and into the afternoon hours. Expect there to be pretty significant convective coverage by the Noon to 2pm timeframe. Instantaneous rain rates in the convection up north have been fairly high (on the order of 2"/hr in the heaviest areas), but the forward speed of these storms has meant that observed rainfall has been close to about 1"/hr on the ground. BUFR soundings show ideal conditions for efficient warm rain processes and resulting heavy rainfall potential today. As convection increases in coverage, a conditional threat for flash flooding will materialize across the CWA today, but mainly focused north of the I-40 corridor where 1hr and 3hr flash flood guidance values are on the order of 1" to 1.5" per hour and 1.5" to 2"/hr respectively. That's not high and stronger storms, even in the absence of training convection, could be enough to cause some flooding concerns. Regarding the issuance of a flash flood watch, still feel like we're alright holding off on issuing one at the moment. That's not to say the threat doesn't exist (see above), but rather that I'm not confident enough in the threat being widespread or focused enough to issue one at the moment. Will wait to see how radar coverage unfolds through midday and make another assessment at that time. CD && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION. Convection continues to increase in coverage across the region so all terminals should see some periodic SHRA/TSRA through 22z or 00z this afternoon and evening. TEMPO groups should cover that. Convection dissipates later this evening as diurnal trends takeover, but guidance has another round of storms moving in from the west around daybreak mainly to affect KTYS and KCHA. MVFR CIGS should be the norm overnight. Winds will be light southwesterly. CD && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 86 72 91 72 / 60 80 30 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 83 71 89 71 / 70 90 30 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 71 83 70 88 71 / 70 90 30 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 80 68 84 68 / 70 90 40 60 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Morristown TN 345 AM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-010745- Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins- Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen- Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene- Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter- Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount- Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe- Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee- Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- 345 AM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 /245 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight ...Localized Flash Flooding this Afternoon and Night... Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Some localized flash flooding is possible this afternoon and evening mainly north of I-40. Trees may uproot more easily in places where soils are saturated. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday ...Localized Flash Flooding Monday... Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday especially during morning. These storms will be capable of heavy downpours and as a result, some localized flash flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Reports of flooding and wind damage may be needed today through the Monday.
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 101 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:24 UTC.
7 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooding of Wilson Hollow Road, both bridge and roadway being covered.
Streets flooded near the intersection of Clinton Hwy and Callahan Drive, and near the intersection of Keck Rd and Lacy Rd.
Vehicle stalled in flood waters.
Several roadways were flooded, including the intersections of North Central Street and Coram Street, Central Avenue Pike and Cedar Lane, and Millertown Pike near Loves Creek Road. Some almost impassable.
Flooding along Bridalwood Drive and Maxwell Street, with water in yards up near homes. Flooding also near the intersection of Tazewell Pike and Anderson Rd.
Flooding near the intersection of Beelertown Road and West Beaver Creek Drive.
Roadway flooded at Washington Pike and Luttrell Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1049206, 1049209, 1049211, 1049215, 1049216, 1049217, 1049218.