Alabama, 2022Rip Current in Alabama, July 31, 2022
July 31, 2022 · NWS MOB · 1 event in 1 county or zone
A man in his 30s drowned due to a rip current on the West End Beach of Dauphin Island.
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- Deaths
- 1
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
A man in his 30s drowned due to a rip current on the West End Beach of Dauphin Island.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 2:40 PM CST, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 2:40 PM CST, 2 hours 20 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
340 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022
.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Monday/...Little change in the overall
weather pattern is expected with the exception of a slight weakening
of the upper high pressure ridge extending from the western Atlantic
into the southeastern states on Monday as the base of a broad upper
trough sags southward over the Tennessee River region. We are also
expecting a return of deeper moisture by late in the near term as
PWATS climb to 2.0-2.3 inches again. Rain-free conditions tonight
will be followed by the usual diurnal cycle of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms on Monday, beginning along the coastline
in the morning then moving inland through the afternoon. A few
storms could be strong with gusty winds, frequent lightning and
locally heavy rainfall.
Lows tonight are expected to range from 71 to 75 degrees inland and
from 76 to 81 degrees along the coastal sections. Highs Monday
should range from 90 to 95 degrees with slightly higher heat indices
ranging from 100-105 degrees, unless early morning storms along the
coast remain under enough cloud cover to keep temps lower. /22
&&
.SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...Upper level
shortwave energy moves into a mean upper trough over the eastern
Conus, becoming a more organized embedded upper trough over the
Southeast. A surface ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf
shifts a bit north of the northern Gulf coast Wednesday into
Thursday, with deep layer southerly flow Monday night into Tuesday
becoming less organized. Still, moisture levels have risen into the
2"-2.2" range by Monday evening and remain high through mid week.
Rain chances increase due to the combination of upper level energy
and high moisture levels. Daytime PoPs in the 70-80% range are
expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Am expecting the timing pattern of
activity forming along and south of the Gulf coast after midnight
each day, then shifting inland during the morning hours, and lasting
into the evening. With daytime MLCape values rising to around
2500J/kg and DCapes to around 800J/kg, enough instability is present
for a few strong to marginally severe storms. Model sounding
indicate essentially no dry layers in the upper levels to enhance
downdrafts. With limited wind shear, the usual summertime pulse type
storms are expected. The deep layer moisture will help to make the
storms efficient rainers, with ponding in poor drainage areas
possible. The weak wind shear will help to limit any training cells.
With the increase in rain coverage and accompanying cloud cover,
high temperatures are expected to see a downward trend into mid
week. Near seasonal upper 80s to around 90 are expected Tuesday and
below seasonal mid to upper 80s are expected Wednesday. Low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s inland, mid to upper 70s along
the coast are expected Monday through Wednesday nights. Daytime Heat
Indices will see a drop with the drop in daytime temperatures, with
98-102 expected Tuesday and Low to mid 90s expected Wednesday.
With the tidal range decrease into mid week combined with a less
organized onshore flow, The Rip Risk will decrease to low.
/16
&&
.EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...Inconsistency remains
consistent in the Extended. Both the ECMWF and GFS are advertising
the upper energy over the Southeast moving off to the west as an
upper level ridge builds west over the eastern Conus (ECMWF and
initially GFS), then and upper ridge builds southeast from high
pressure over the Plains (Friday through Sunday in the GFS). Either
way way one looks at it, upper level subsidence increases over the
Southeast. Each of the ensembles follow their respective
deterministic models. The ECMWF is advertising a higher chance of
rain through the Extended with the nearby upper level weakness, then
another approaching from the East affecting the Southeast, than the
GFS. The GFS is advertising a decrease in PoPs as the upper ridge
builds southeast over the Southeast then an increase in shortwave
energy moving over the region over the weekend, and PoPs see a drop
Thursday and Friday, then a bit of an increase over the weekend.
High temperatures below seasonal norms increase to around seasonal
for the weekend in both models. Run to run, the GFS is bouncing up
and down with the PoPs, whilst the ECMWF has been mostly consistent
the last couple of days. The ECMWF has been more consistent with the
temperatures also, so am generally leaning towards the ECMWF for the
Extended.
/16
&&
.MARINE...No significant impacts are anticipated through Thursday.
/22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 76 91 75 88 73 84 75 88 / 10 60 20 70 40 80 40 70
Pensacola 79 90 76 86 75 84 76 86 / 10 50 20 70 40 80 40 70
Destin 80 90 79 87 76 85 76 89 / 0 40 20 70 40 80 40 70
Evergreen 71 93 72 90 70 85 71 90 / 0 60 20 70 20 80 30 70
Waynesboro 72 92 72 89 70 86 72 89 / 10 60 20 70 20 70 30 70
Camden 72 93 73 90 70 87 72 88 / 0 50 20 70 20 70 30 70
Crestview 74 92 74 91 72 85 73 89 / 0 50 20 70 30 80 40 70
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Rip Current, Mobile Coastal
- When
- July 31, 5:00 PM CST
- Where
- Mobile Coastal forecast zone
- Deaths
- 1 direct, 0 indirect
- Reported by
- Broadcast Media
- Coordinates
- 30.685, -88.197 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
A man in his 30s drowned due to a rip current on the West End Beach of Dauphin Island.
- Rip Current
- A narrow, fast current flowing away from the beach that caused a drowning or rescue.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Heat in Georgia, July 31, 20222 deaths · 1 event
- Heat in Nevada, July 31, 20221 death · 1 event
- Flash Flooding and Hail in Arizona, July 31, 2022$3.0 million · 1 in hail · 7 events
- Flash Flooding in Kentucky, July 31, 2022$30,000 · 9 events
- Flash Flooding in Tennessee, July 31, 2022$1,000 · 7 events
- Damaging Winds in North Carolina, July 31, 202252 kt wind · 7 events
- Flash Flood and Dust Storm in Arizona, July 31, 20224 events
- Flash Flooding in New Mexico, July 31, 20224 events
- Flash Flood and Flood in Virginia, July 31, 20224 events
- Damaging Winds and Lightning Strike in Virginia, July 31, 2022$9,000 · 60 kt wind · 3 events
- Flash Flooding in Kentucky, July 31, 2022$700 · 2 events
- Damaging Wind in North Dakota, July 31, 202256 kt wind · 1 event
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1034510.